President William Ruto with ODM leader Raila Odinga at Nyayo National Stadium during a past Jamhuri Day celebration.
Opposition chief Raila Odinga has emerged as a key cog in President William Ruto’s administration, amid internal strife that continues to threaten the nascent regime.
In the wake of massive anti-government protests spearheaded by the youth following Parliament’s approval of the controversial Finance Bill 2024, Mr Odinga came in handy to steady Dr Ruto’s ship which was under exponential threat.
Ironically, in early 2023, Mr Odinga who had refused to recognise President Ruto's presidency alleging he had won the 2022 elections, waged similar bloody anti-government protests which led to mediation between the two sides.
These talks between the government and the opposition led to the National Dialogue Committee report which recommended far-reaching constitutional reforms that have since stalled.
In July, this year, the former Prime Minister who is eying the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) backed by President Ruto, gave out top officials of his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) who were subsequently appointed to the “broad-based” cabinet.
The high-profile ODM leaders named in the broad-based Cabinet are former deputy party leaders Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, former ODM National Chairman John Mbadi and former Secretary of Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi, as well as former member of the party's elections board Ms Beatrice Askul.
But despite these leaders joining the government and pledging allegiance to the Ruto regime, Mr Odinga has maintained that the ODM party remains in the opposition, a position that is highly contested by his critics.
While addressing ODM delegates in Mombasa about two weeks ago, Mr Odinga hinted at possible collaboration with the government, insisting that any such talks must, however, follow a national conversation to address pertinent issues affecting Kenyans.
“We have not joined any coalition with Kenya Kwanza and we are saying that if we have to, we must have a national conversation to deal with many outstanding issues including the constitution which has not been addressed,” Mr Odinga said.
But for now, Mr Odinga insisted that ODM has no coalition agreement with Dr Ruto’s side and only donated its experts to help stabilize the Kenya Kwanza government.
“We have said that we need a national dialogue, a national convention to discuss the issues ailing the country, some of them which we raised ourselves and others by youth during this year’s demonstrations.
“That conversation has not taken place. Until that conversation takes place properly and an agreement is reached, we are not in government,” said Mr Odinga.
Once a fierce rival to President Ruto, Mr Odinga has emerged as an unlikely stabilising force in the face of escalating tensions within the Kenya Kwanza government.
With the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Mr Odinga’s seasoned political manoeuvres and strategic alliance with Dr Ruto have provided a buffer for the administration.
Political analysts opine that his support not only strengthens the government’s standing but also reshapes the dynamics of Kenya’s political future.
Following accusations that Mr Gachagua had emerged as a fierce critic of the Ruto administration, even linked to the June Gen Z protests which saw some of his close aides arrested, Mr Odinga came in handy to provide President Ruto the necessary support in Parliament to kick him out.
Raised concerns
In July during the ODM party’s joint National Executive Committee (NEC) and Parliamentary Group meeting, Mr Odinga reportedly raised concerns with the clamour for the removal of President Ruto, terming the consequences as “dire.”
“Ruto goes, then what? Ruto may go then Gachagua takes over still implementing bad policies.
“Ruto can also say I am tired, let the Generals (Military) take over. Then the country begins to go through what Egypt went through after Taharir Square.
Ruto must go cannot be an end,” Mr Odinga charged.
He noted that during times of crisis as witnessed during the heated Gen Z protests, was when a country needed to talk.
“We are not doing it to save Ruto. We are doing it to save Kenya. Generals don’t have teargas. They don’t have water cannons. They have bullets direct,” Mr Odinga said then.
Mr Odinga’s troops in the National Assembly and Senate led by Junet Mohamed and Steward Madzayo respectively, would later rally ODM members who ganged up with their counterparts in the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) to kick out Mr Gachagua by way of impeachment about a fought night ago.
Political analyst Mr Martin Oloo argues that President Ruto knowing that Central Kenya may not vote for him to the last man in the 2027 election, he is squarely looking into Western and Nyanza regions to galvanise his support, with Mr Odinga being at the centre of the plan.
“By standing by Baba (Mr Odinga) and dispatching him to the AU, his chances in Nyanza will be okay,” Mr Oloo says.
Mr Odinga’s allies are already mulling a future political coalition with President Ruto, with the Head of State himself giving hints that both UDA and ODM share common ideologies.
Siaya Senator Dr Oburu Oginga, the elder brother of Mr Odinga argues that nothing would stop them from working with the Head of State if he delivers on his pledges.
Speaking against the backdrop of President Ruto’s visit to Nyanza region, they said they had worked before with President Ruto in ODM and will be ready to work with him once again.
Nation has established that if all goes well and Mr Odinga successfully clinches the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) in February next year’s election, then his team and that of the Head of State will likely strike a 2027 deal.
In the deal, they are expected to draw a power-sharing formula that will incorporate ODM and the president’s UDA.
Dr Oginga declared that the ODM leader has since embraced President Ruto, adding that the Luo nation will be ready to pay his 2007 political debt should he make his promises a reality and involve the community in employment in his administration.
“He has received a welcome in the Luo nation more than any other time he has been around. This is because Raila has embraced him and I think it is not bad kurudisha mkono (pay a political debt),” Dr Oginga said.
He noted that President Ruto played a major role in 2007 in making Mr Odinga Prime Minister of Kenya.
“He did not just support him by word of mouth but mobilized people in the Rift Valley who voted for him man to man yet we did not give him much in the last election,” Dr Oginga said.
He went on: “…but we are telling him that as things move, let us continue to talk and negotiate and let our people feel the government, let them feel they are also part of the government.
“We have given out our cream of the party. We have given him our two deputy party leaders (Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya), we have given him John Mbadi who was our chairman, as well as Opiyo Wandayi who was minority leader in Parliament, that’s the top most cream from our party and we want them to work for Kenyans.”
Dr Oginga wants President Ruto to ensure the community is integrated in government, in employment in all sectors of government, “so that Luos feel they are part and parcel of the government.”
Kapseret MP Oscar Sudi also holds that President Ruto should continue to share his government by giving out the Principal Secretary (PS) positions to Mr Odinga’s camp and other Kenyans.
“No Kenyan should complain because this country belongs to all of us and it’s time to ensure regional balance in all appointments including Principal Secretaries positions,” Mr Sudi said.
National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, a close confidant of Mr Odinga, had also hinted at the possibility of working with the Ruto administration.
He told the Head of State to ensure Mr Odinga wins the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC).
More declarations
“Raila’s AU quest is very important to us and if we secure that post, we shall make more declarations going forward,” he told President Ruto during the thanksgiving ceremony for Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi in August.
At the ceremony, Cabinet Secretary for Mining and Blue Economy Hassan Joho declared that the ODM team was now part of government.
“I want to say for the record that we are now in government. I can feel it and I have no plans of leaving today, tomorrow or in future.
“Wale ambao hawaamini wajue hii safari ni ya masafa marefu (Those in doubt should understand that this is a long journey). We shall walk the journey together,” Mr Joho said.
He said President Ruto was a member of the ODM party in the 2007 election on whose ticket he was elected Eldoret North MP, adding that he was also part of their power-sharing plans together with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi.
“In our previous plan, Raila was to be president, Mudavadi deputy president and William Ruto Prime Minister.
“However, things didn't go as planned but Ruto excused himself for Raila to be Prime Minister and he chose to remain a mere Minister,” Mr Joho explained.
He pointed out that President Ruto had to sacrifice for Mr Odinga to be Prime Minister in the Grand Coalition government which had Mwai Kibaki as president, and that they will be willing and ready to craft a new lineup in the coming days.
“So, he (Ruto) has sacrificed before and he continues to sacrifice. I will work tirelessly and we shall defend the government and shall support you to unite the country,” the former ODM Deputy Party leader added.
President Ruto had also signalled a possible coalition with Mr Odinga that could lead to a rebirth of their 2007 Pentagon ahead of the 2027 election.
The President argues that his broad-based government that has seen former ODM party officials named to the cabinet was not a short-term venture.
Already President Ruto has tasked Prime CS Mudavadi to oversee Mr Odinga’s campaigns for the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC), a mission that is expected to cement their working relationship.
President Ruto, Mr Odinga and Mr Mudavadi among other regional leaders were major partners in ODM in the 2007 election, galvanising the Western vote bloc of Rift Valley, Nyanza and Western, giving former president Mwai Kibaki a run for his money in his re-election bid.
Analysts say that with the relationship of Dr Ruto with his impeached deputy Gachagua irreparable, he is keen on forging an alliance with the Western bloc to checkmate Mt Kenya region which could slip away from his grip.
