President Ruto’s acid test: Inside government’s dilemma over Azimio maandamano

The test of wills between President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga is bound to come to a head if the events that unfolded during the protests last Wednesday are anything to go by.

Ignoring warnings of stern action if he proceeded with illegal and violent protests, Raila effectively threw down the gauntlet. Now the onus is on Ruto to pick it up lest he appear weak and unable to contain his nemesis.

A death toll of at least nine reported from different parts of the country, to add to the six from the ‘Saba Saba’ day protests of July 7 the previous week, indicated a substantial escalation.

It also became evident that the series of demonstrations, initially limited to the capital city of Nairobi and parts of Odinga’s strongholds in Kisumu Town and other parts of the Nyanza region, are spreading to other parts of the country, and escalating in intensity and violence. Odinga, at the end of the day, would probably have been quietly satisfied that his call for protests over the cost of living was beginning to resonate beyond his traditional base, and most importantly beginning to find toeholds in parts of the Rift Valley and Mt Kenya regions, which had voted solidly for Ruto.

Read: Ruto's big plan to counter planned Raila protests

What started in March as demands for an audit of the August 2022 presidential election on the back of alleged whistleblower information that Raila was the actual winner of the poll has swiftly found a more potent cause in the Ruto government’s inability to find a quick solution to the economic black hole inherited from President Uhuru Kenyatta. And from cost-of-living protests, it has morphed into a drive for the ouster of Ruto through a 10 million signature collection effort. It by-passes the constitutional impeachment mechanisms through Parliament and instead goes for a ‘People Power’ option of no legal standing, but one that could carry great political weight.

Easy passage in Parliament for Ruto’s first budget proposals since his election was a boon for the Kenya Kwanza alliance administration, but that provided the fodder for Raila’s opposition Azimio coalition to put aside the defeat and make capital of widespread public discontent over rising prices of essential commodities. Raila opted for the classic strategy of going directly to the people, where he found receptive ears on issues around Ruto’s unpopular Finance Bill which, to many, exemplifies the government’s appetite for taxation in the midst of poverty.

Disturbances spread to over 20 counties, from where there were reports of various levels of destruction as mobs clashed with police and vandals took advantage to go on damaging orgies. Raila will no doubt face plenty of flack for what are always billed as peaceful and lawful protests once again descending into chaos and anarchy.

The stock response is that the police are the ones who incite violence by descending on ‘peaceful’ protesters with tear gas, water cannons, truncheons and even live bullets.

Read: Street clashes loom as Ruto men vow to confront Azimio protestors  

There are also claims that some of the violence is perpetrated by government-sponsored thugs deployed to cause mayhem and paint the opposition in bad light. As happened after Saba Saba, the blame games were going to pick up after the latest riots, with security agencies and Kenya Kwanza politicians accusing Raila of causing death and destruction, and Azimio and supporters in civil society countering that the police deployed lethal force against peaceful protestors exercising their constitutional rights. The big question now is, what next? Raila will no doubt see the growing protests as a success, and will be keen to maintain the momentum. Ruto will want to halt him before things spiral out of control.

Just before the Wednesday protests, the President issued a stern warning directed at the opposition chief, whom he accused of perpetrating chaos. Referring to the six deaths reported the previous week, Ruto vowed that a repeat would not be allowed, and promised all necessary steps to maintain law and order.

The Cabinet Secretary for Interior, Kithure Kindiki, also warned against violence and unlicensed demonstrations, while the Inspector-General of Police, Japheth Koome, pointed out that Azimio had not notified the police of any meeting at Kamukunji grounds in Nairobi or anywhere else, and therefore any gatherings or processions would be illegal and dispersed by force.

Last Wednesday, as the country was still reeling from the scale of destruction, Kindiki issued his strongest statement yet following the series of protests, promising that that those responsible would be arrested and made to face the full force of the law.  His statement suggested that security agencies would train their sights not just on low-level perpetrators, but also the planners and organisers.

Kindiki traced Raila’s history of radicalism back to the failed 1982 military coup attempt on to the present political agitation, warning that “this culture of impunity will stop. All those who took part, directly or indirectly, in today’s well-orchestrated violation of public safety and security of our nation shall be punished”. He ended by promising “arrest and prosecution of all those involved in the planning and execution of the crimes committed today, including those who funded or otherwise aided or abetted the offenders”.

The CS for Roads and Transport, Kipchumba Murkomen, also weighed in with specific reference to the destruction on the southern end of the Nairobi Expressway. He asked for arrest and prosecution of those caught on caught on CCTV cameras uprooting steel structures at the entrance of the elevated highway, which was forced to close for the day.

He, too, did not stop at the direct perpetrators, warning that “organisers will be held personally responsible for losses incurred through theft, vandalism and the destruction of public infrastructure and property”. It remains to be seen whether these tough statements will lead to the arrest of Raila and his Azimio high command, which includes his 2022 running-mate Martha Karua, Wiper Party leader and a former Vice-President  Kalonzo Musyoka, former Cabinet minister Eugene Wamalwa, former Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria and ousted Jubilee Party Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni.

On Thursday, former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya was arrested and grilled at the regional DCI offices. He was later released.

If the government is really serious, it could cast the net wider and also go for former President Uhuru Kenyatta, whom Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and politicians around Ruto incessantly accuse of being the real force and sponsor behind Raila’s insurrection.

A decision on such a wave of high-level arrests would be beyond the pay grades of Director of Criminal Investigations Amin Mohammed, Police IG Koome and the vacant office of the Director of Public Prosecutions. Although such offices are by law meant to act independent and outside the influence and direction of any other authority, realities in Kenya dictate that such politically-sensitive decisions are cleared higher-up. Kindiki’s advice would be sought, and he would most probably refer the matter further upwards to Ruto.

Although he often gives the impression of a hardliner, the President is also a very smart and pragmatic politician. He would be highly unlikely to sanction the arrest of Raila or Uhuru, or anyone else who commands a following that could rise up in protests that might become unmanageable. In the wake of the Saba Saba protests, 73 demonstrators arrested and set to be charged in Nairobi were released unconditionally after negotiations involving Azimio lawyers led by Rarieda MP Otiende Amolo and State Counsels from the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions. There will be little prospect of reprieve this time. A wave of arrests and prosecutions are sure to follow, but it still remains to be seen how high, rather than how wide, the net will be cast. In the meantime, it is clear that Raila will not be deterred.

‘Success’ of the Wednesday protests will, if anything, give him the impetus to move forward, and he was already warning of a third wave of protests even as Kindiki was warning of arrests. A significant element of the latest protests is the way in which disparate groupings that previously were not working in tandem came together in a convergence of interests.

Last Saturday, former Chief Justice Willy Mutunga and colleagues were teargassed outside the Central Police Station in Nairobi, where they had converged to deliver bread, milk and other provisions to arrested demonstrators.

Agitation politics

Mutunga is a veteran of agitation politics in Kenya as one of the key architects of the civil society groupings that plotted the drive for constitutional reform from the mid-1990s. He was also involved in putting together the coalition that in 2002 propelled President Mwai Kibaki into power following the retirement of President Daniel arap Moi.

Mutunga has recently been involved, though peripherally, in a growing coalition of civil society, political and other activist groupings under the Kenya Bora Tuitakayo banner.

Read: Kindiki vows to stop criminals taking advantage of Azimio demos

The movement, fronted by protest veteran Cyprian Nyamwamu, has brought together a large number of individuals and groupings committed to societal transformation, but has been working independently of Raila or any other political formations. Its WhatsApp discussion group reveals a motley bunch of often competing persuasions and aims, but it seems to have attracted the attention of figures around State House. Last week, the so-called ‘Hustler Nation Intelligence Bureau’ controlled by Ruto’s social media propagandist, Dennis Itumbi, came out with sensational revelations, accusing the group of plotting regime change.

The propaganda outlet linked the Raila protests, lawsuits filed against the Finance Bill and appointment of Chief Administrative Secretaries (Itumbi was one of those whose assumption of office was put in hold by the courts), and general disaffection seen in various sectors as all part of a grand scheme to destabilise and eventually oust the government.  It is true that some civil society luminaries who had parted ways with Raila after his ‘handshake’ with President Kenyatta are beginning to find common cause with him. But there are also many who have no time for his agitation and have, in fact, leaned towards Ruto.

It is evident, however, that Raila is right now in prime position to capitalise on growing disaffection seen in various groups such as transport operators, medical unions, teachers, youth groups, university students, small traders, farmers and others hard-hit the economic downturn who are willing to express themselves on the streets. Raila has upped the stakes with what is now increasingly looking like efforts to mobilise a general uprising, and Ruto will have no option but to respond. His dilemma is that heavy-handed action could only further inflame the situation to his disadvantage.