The political art of reading public mood

On Friday during Saba Saba demos, one of the most notable videos that circulated on social media was that of immediate former Laikipia governor Ndiritu Muriithi being arrested and hauled into a Land Rover. He was arrested in Nyahururu town while conducting some demonstration.

For one minute, ignore the argument about whether the demonstration was legal or not.

Think more of Ndiritu. From where I sit, I view him as one of Kenya’s most competent politicians. I was going through the most recent Controller of Budget’s report of May 2023 on own source revenue. The report indicated that during his tenure as Laikipia governor, he tripled own source revenue. But why is it that he always misreads the public mood?

Robert Caro, in his book The Years of Lyndon Johnson, quotes US President Johnson’s father ( who was a politician as well) as saying a good politician should walk into a room full of people and be able to tell who supports him and who doesn’t.

Let’s look at Ndiritu’s political history. Take 2013. He pivoted strongly in favour of Musalia Mudavadi under the UDF party banner and lost. He did not detect the TNA Uhuru wave. In 2022, he was unable to detect the oncoming UDA wave.

The Friday Saba Saba video clip had more information that affirms that problem of misreading public mood. In the said video, one could hear onlookers urging the police to arrest Ndiritu for causing chaos.

The irony of these shouts is that a few days earlier, the media had reported that Nyahururu residents were unhappy with the government due to the Finance Bill and wanted demos held in their town. How come that, when Ndiritu volunteered to lead demos, Nyahururu residents were shouting “arrest him” ? Could this have been a case of misreading the public mood?

Well, understanding what the public really wants is a complex and hidden science. A leader can hear public murmurs and noises in direction A, but when push comes to shove, say during voting, the public heads in the opposite direction – towards point B.

I almost found myself misreading the public mood on elections in 2002. This was a few months to the elections.

Mwai Kibaki had formed an alliance with Charity Ngilu and Kijana Wamalwa. He decided to visit Murang’a town. At the time, I was a young political activist (a student leader on suspension) angling for a councillor’s post in Murang’a Town.

Then President Daniel arap Moi had endorsed the then youthful Uhuru Kenyatta as the Kanu presidential candidate. So, I wondered, should I join Uhuru or the Kibaki camp ? Based on local vibes, I strongly thought Uhuru would triumph. He was young and with my candidature being hinged on the youth card, many told me I was better off siding with Uhuru.

Besides, Kibaki had betrayed our dear Kenneth Matiba in 1992 by vying, hence splitting Kikuyu vote. Connected to this, many said, Murang’a leans more culturally towards Kiambu (where Uhuru comes from) and that explains why Kiambu voted for Matiba in 1992.

Pro-Uhuru slogans

Indeed, our then very popular area MP Ngenye shifted to the Uhuru camp. I joined the Kanu side and on the day Kibaki came visiting our town, I organised a peaceful demo composed of youths who shouted pro-Uhuru slogans. The police dispersed us using teargas. When I got home, my elderly mother said something in jest, which made me think twice: “Sorry son, why did you demonstrate against Kibaki? No one will elect you. I am sorry, you got suspended from the university, you will now lose the elections.”

I was shocked. I realised Kibaki had silent support. Hidden completely from the public noise. My mother was fairly apolitical. She was expressing the view of this “silent majority”. 

I shifted the following day and won the post. All Kanu aspirants lost.

Several factors can help leaders discern the true public mood. First, one should understand the political fundamentals of any given locality. This refers to the tested historical political facts that obtain in an area. For example, Mt Kenya people traditionally dislike violent demonstrations by virtue of being key owners of private property in Kenya. Whenever Raila Odinga calls for demos, notwithstanding any problems in the UDA government, Ruto’s ratings go up. Expecting that Mt Kenya residents will embrace violent demos is like hoping Langata MP Felix Jalang’o will dislodge Raila in Nyanza.

Secondly, politics is rarely shaped by a single event. Political views, being attitudes, are shaped by a series of repeated events. That explains why the public can forgive specific misdeeds by leaders.

An MP for Molo was once caught on camera a little tipsy and was voted in overwhelmingly three years later. Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba made a slip of the tongue about MPs’ salaries early in her term but was elected as a legislator later on.

Donald Trump was caught in an audio boasting about mishandling women but still won the 2016 US presidential elections.

Yes, Nyahururu people might be unhappy with the Finance Bill, but that does not necessarily mean they now support Raila. A true understanding of public mood demands constant and objective analysis of the people’s feelings, not the views of individual persons discussing politics in a single social gathering.

Thirdly, there exist objectives means of reading public mood. One can do constant public polling. Polling using a human agency can be subjective.

SMS-based polls, due to the inherent anonymity, are better despite the danger of a sample that’s not very representative of the whole population.

Finally, one can develop good political instincts by constantly picking up diverse views. Children and the elderly tend to render the most objective responses. Such instincts include the ability to read body language (facial expressions and body postures). Of course, these can be misleading. There are instances where people can heartily clap for a leader as a matter of social courtesy but vote him out. The always-upbeat Boni Khalwale knows this better. In the 2017 elections, he learnt this when he faced the apparently colourless Wycliffe Oparanya in the Kakamega governor’s race. Or the charming Chirau Ali Makwere when he faced the rather low-key Salim Mvurya in Kwale. Both colourful candidates received a drubbing by the supposedly dour rivals despite their animated campaigns.

Dr Kang’ata is the Governor of Murang’a County.