President William Ruto (right) and ODM leader Raila Odinga.
It was a re-energised President William Ruto who took the hustings shortly after reconstituting the cabinet he has dissolved in the wake of the Gen Z protests. After nearly five weeks of relative seclusion, the President took what was a virtual campaign tour to the Meru region, announcing cash for development projects and heaping praise on the local figure, Professor Kithure Kindiki, who had re-nominated for the powerful Interior docket.
From Meru, he went to the Coast, earning an enthusiastic welcome for nominating former Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho to the new Cabinet line-up. Chances are that just a fortnight earlier, the President visiting Meru and Mombasa would have had to endure hostile crowds amidst chants of ‘Ruto Must Go’! It might, therefore, be safe to say that the reconstitution of his Cabinet by bringing in opposition leader Raila Odinga’s surrogates, while still retaining trusted loyalists, was a masterstroke that has given the besieged President a new lease of life.
Already, it is apparent that Ruto’s troops in Parliament have been mobilised to overturn his objections to some key provisions of Finance Bill he had asked be removed in response to the protests against punitive taxation and questionable allocations. The MPs have already reinstated budget lines for the offices of the First Lady and Spouse of the Deputy President, offering the ingenious argument that halting the allocations would mean laying off staff, which could attract lawsuits. They did not offer similar rationale for cutbacks of expenditure and hiring in key social, services such as health and education, or the impending closure of money-gobbling state enterprises.
It is apparent now that inclusion of Odinga’s nominees in the new Cabinet is more than just a scheme to contain the anti-tax protests driven by the young generation that have rocked the government. It is hoped that the immediate impact will be to defuse the anti-government protests driven by the youthful Gen Zs that have put unprecedented pressure on Ruto over the last five weeks or so. The main opposition party now in bed with the government gives Ruto precious breathing space in Parliament; but of more import beyond that is shifting alliances ahead of the 2027 elections which will give Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua food for thought.
In a nutshell, Raila was given a place on the table to neutralise Gachagua, in a replay of the post-2017 elections when he was brought in by then President Uhuru Kenyatta to help undercut then Deputy President Ruto. It follows that Raila’s support will be essential to Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid, by which time it will be untenable for Gachagua to be handed the running-mate slot. Apart from having his men in key cabinet slots, Raila will also expect to have a major say in the political realignments to come once he leads his party out of the opposition Azimio coalition and enters into a pact with Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza.
Assuming Ruto dispenses with Gachagua for 2027, he must still try and hold on to the populous Mt Kenya voting block by replacing him with another politician from the community. Chances, however, are that having been spurned so early into the life of this government, Gachagua will not go quietly, but put in his own presidential bid that could completely the upset the delicate regional and ethnic mathematics that propelled Ruto to power.
Ruto re-election bid
There is also the big question of where Raila or his nominee fits into the line-up Ruto will be crafting for his re-election bid. Already, their entry into the fray has disturbed the established Kenya Kwanza alliance pecking order. Complicating the scenario is that the two former Raila allies who decamped from his side in the run-up to the 2022 polls and ensured Ruto’s victory, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, will not want to lose their places in the new scheme of things.
For the moment, though, a question still to be answered is what exactly the nomination of Raila’s men to the Cabinet means in light of the line between government and opposition. Although Raila last Thursday released a statement clarifying that there is no formal coalition pact or power-sharing agreement between his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) or the wider Kenya Kwanza governing alliance, appointment of his key party lieutenants the previous day was in itself indicator of a ‘handshake’ even more solid than his deal with President Uhuru Kenyatta that silenced his 2017 post-election protests.
It simply is not possible that Ruto could have appointed to his Cabinet ODM stalwarts such as joint Deputy Party leaders Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho, National chairman and Nominated MP John Mbadi, and National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi, without Raila’s express say-so. Even without a coalition deal. The net result of four senior ODM figures holding key Cabinet posts, and two more reportedly in the offing as at time of writing, is itself proof of a political deal in the broad-based government Ruto proposed as his way of managing demands of the Gen Z revolt.
That development could only have happened following extensive consultations with Raila, to the exclusion of his Azimio la Umoja opposition coalition colleagues, Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper Party, Martha Karua of Narc Kenya, Eugene Wamalwa of Democratic Action Party (DAP-K) and Jeremiah Kioni of former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s faction of the Jubilee Party. Indeed, the four were quick to insist that there were ‘not boarding’ when it became apparent that Raila was on the verge of cutting a deal with Ruto earlier this month during the signing of a law amending the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Act in line with recommendations of the National Dialogue Committee.
With Ruto and Raila now working together, the Azimio coalition has been left in tatters, with Karua, who was Raila’s running mate at the 2022 elections already formally putting out, while Kalonzo, Wamalwa and Kioni try to soldier on. Ruto will be hoping that Raila, on his side, goes some way to defusing the Gen Z revolt that has had his back against the wall; but the issues that sparked nationwide protests, forced him to withdraw the contentious Finance Bill and even dissolve his Cabinet, have not been resolved.
There is no doubt that Gachagua, whom the Ruto political and security machinery has been accusing, without offering any evidence, of financing the Gen Z protests alongside Uhuru, will be re-assessing his place in the Kenya Kwanza government. Like Ruto before him who fell out with his boss in the second term of the ‘UhuRuto’ administration, Gachagua knows that he cannot be fired having been elected in his own right on the presidential ticket.
Starved of funds
He will most likely be subjected to the same kind of treatment Ruto was from 2018, sidelined from decision-making, starved of funds for his office, and political allies put under pressure to decamp. They could even be harassed by a security and justice machinery, notably the Directorate of Criminal Investigations, the National Intelligence Service and the Office of Director of Public Prosecutions, which under the present incumbents seem to be doing Ruto’s bidding.
Gachagua, just a first-term MP, was selected as Ruto’s 2022 running mate principally because he was seen as a tough and street-smart operative who could be relied on to drive the fight to Uhuru, who was supporting Raila’s presidential bid. As a former personal assistant to Uhuru, he was presumed to know where all the hidden skeletons were, particularly in regard to the Kenyatta family’s extensive business and financial dealings. He had also in his early working career after leaving University of Nairobi served in the first corp of the controversial ‘Special District Officers’, who provided parallel security intelligence duties, reporting directly to then-powerful Interior Permanent Secretary Hezekiah Oyugi.
He has demonstrated during a relatively short political career that he is a fighter who cannot be taken lightly, even though he does have a tendency to lack of finesse and tact in his political manoeuvres and utterances. He has the reputation of a bully who expected to automatically inherit the populous Mt Kenya vote left floating after Uhuru’s exit. He displayed arrogance and high-handedness towards other Mt Kenya politicians who did not dance to his tune, and pursuing an ethnic supremacist agenda within Kenya Kwanza that alienated coalition partners not from the region, including Mudavadi and Wetang’ula who represent the also populous western Kenya bloc.
For now, Gachagua can afford to sit tight and enjoy the perks of the DPs office just like Ruto did while mounting an insurgency from within. His focus will, however, be on the 2027 elections, where he knows chances of being Ruto’s running mate are next to nothing. He thus has the option of being reduced to DP who disappears into oblivion after just one term, or solidifying his political base and emerging as a major political factor in his own right. While there is little evidence that Gachagua’s attempts to mend fences with Uhuru and unite the Mt Kenya region behind him have borne fruit, there is evidence that the more he is out under pressure, the more sympathy he is earning in the backyard.
The entry of Raila’s troops into Kenya Kwanza government provides Gachagua with the perfect weapon to push narratives around the Mt Kenya region being used to propel Ruto to power, and then being dumped. There is growing sympathy in the region for Uhuru whose warning against voting for Ruto were ignored, but the absence of the former President for direct political engagement provides room for Gachagua fill the leadership vacuum as he plays the victim card. Ruto has figures such as Kindiki, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro and Kirinyaga Governor Ann Waiguru to prop up alternative Mt Kenya leaders and potential 2022 running mates, but Gachagua would completely upset the apple cart if he goes all the way and mounts his own presidential candidacy. He will not be alone, however, in seeking to harvest the biggest vote basket. Martha Karua, who fronts the ‘Kamwene’ initiative and was main attraction at the Limuru 3 forum of Mt Kenya leaders, is also likely to be in the race.
The multi-party campaign pioneer and former Justice Minister was a major disappointment in failing to garner substantial Mt Kenya votes for Raila at the last elections. However, she will also be in position to exploit disenchantment within the populous community, especially if she can get the support of Uhuru. Mt Kenya aside, there will also be other communities at play. While the region provided the largest votes for Ruto’s elections, indications that it is turning against him might provide rethinks on the next line-up.
It is not written in stone that he must select a Mt Kenya running mate, in which case Mudavadi, who has long had his own presidential ambitions, will expect to be first in line with an eye on the presidential succession. The western Kenya bloc, however, is watching with fear that they could be relegated in the Kenya Kwanza pecking order with Raila’s entry. Towards the end of the week, a group of politicians from the region gathered at a Nairobi hotel to examine their options amidst grumbling that they were being taken for granted. They included Cleophas Malala, Secretary-General of Ruto’s UDA party, his counterpart in Raila’s ODM, Edwin Sifuna, and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, calling themselves ‘new generation’ leaders impatient that the old guard of Mudavadi and Wetang’ula were not representing community interests strongly enough.
The meeting was to set the stage for the larger meeting of all western Kenya political parties set for Kakamega, where a key agenda item is likely to be concerns that entry of Raila’s troops in the Ruto government comes at their expense, especially in regard to political realignments heading to 2027.
Although one of their own, former Kakamega Governor Oparanya, was one of the beneficiaries with nomination as CS for Co-operatives, some present argued that the docket was only a ‘junior’ Cabinet seat, and that he would be in the Cabinet as a Raila-ODM surrogate rather than as representatives of western Kenya. According to sources within the meeting, disquiet was also expressed that the influential Treasury docket went to Raila’s Nyanza ally Mbadi, which would provide direct line to Ruto that by-passes the laid-back Mudavadi.
The meeting next week will probably pile pressure on Mudavadi and Wetang’ula to assert themselves more strongly within the Kenya Kwanza alliance, especially in regard to competition with the Mt Kenya contingent, and now the entry of Raila’s Nyanza region base. There is likely to be the latent threat that if not guaranteed at least a running mate slot come 2027, the region could bolt out and field its own presidential candidate. Outside Kenya Kwanza, there is also the fluid situation in a divided Azimio. Raila continues to insist that ODM has not entered into a coalition with government, with Kalonzo and the others will not stand a situation where Azimio coalition partner has its members in government while holding on to minority leadership and other seats parliamentary slots reserved for the opposition.
Retirement from politics
A press conference last Thursday at Kalonzo’s Wiper party offices pointed out the untenable position Raila troops having one foot in government and another in opposition, but offered no real solution as ODM is by a distance the biggest opposition party and therefore outnumbering the others combined. There is also the fluid situation since Raila signaled his imminent retirement from local politics by aiming his sights on the African Union Commission chairmanship. Kalonzo has since indicated that he is determined to go for the presidency after thrice putting his ambitions on hold to support Raila. Wamalwa is expected to be his running mate, with the ticket likely to be in competition with Karua for Uhuru’s backing.
As probable line-up from both Kenya Kwanza and the opposition crystalise in coming months and years, a key question is where Raila fits into the equation. His dalliance with Kenya Kwanza probably marks the end of the ‘handshake’ with Uhuru, but also leaves uncertain whether he will be content, even if eyeing retirement, merely being part of the supporting cast for Ruto’s re-election bid.
He will most likely have extracted some major concessions, the minimum being a key role in the emerging alliance leading to first stab at the presidential succession for his designated nominee. That would be the minimum expectations of the Nyanza electorate that for years has solidly backed Raila, but always been left deeply frustrated falling at the last hurdle in the elusive quest for the holy grail.
