Raila leads Ruto in latest Tifa opinion poll

tifa poll raila ruto lead
Photo credit: Augustine Sang | Nation Media Group

Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga is still the most popular presidential candidate at 46.7 percent while Kenya Kwanza's William Ruto now stands at 44.4 percent, a new Tifa opinion poll shows. Separately, another poll by the Centre for African Progress has the former premier at 52 percent and Dr Ruto at 45 percent.

The Tifa poll ranked Roots Party candidate George Wajackoya third with 1.8 percent and Waihiga Mwaure of Agano party is fourth with 0.1 percent.

When compared to the previous Tifa poll, the new numbers indicate that Dr Ruto has narrowed the lead on Mr Odinga who previously polled at 42 percent against the DP's 39 percent.

“With just over a month until the election, Raila Odinga maintains a very narrow lead over William Ruto for the presidential contest," the report says.

“The presence of two other candidates, Prof George Wajackoya of the Roots party and Mwaure Waihiga of the Agano party at least raises the possibility that neither Odinga nor Ruto will be able to secure an outright, first round win, though combined their total figure would probably have at least double to bring this about,” Tifa adds.

The poll shows that Mr Odinga enjoys more support in Nyanza, Western, South Rift, Nairobi and Lower Eastern regions, while Dr Ruto has majority of support in Central Rift and Mt Kenya regions.

According to the poll, UDA is still the most popular political party across the country, followed by ODM, Jubilee, Wiper and Roots Party.

In terms of the popularity of coalitions and alliances, the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party is the most popular across the country at 47 percent, followed by Kenya Kwanza Alliance at about 42 percent. 

“Looking at the distribution of support for these coalitions across the country, it is evident that Azimio’s highest support is found in Raila Odinga’s home area of Nyanza, even as it receives considerable support in Coast, Lower Eastern and Nairobi. Similarly, the Kenya Kwanza Alliance is most popular in its leader’s backyard of Central Rift and in Mount Kenya,” says Tifa. 

“While Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition party attracts slightly more national support than does Kenya Kwanza, the latter dominates in Centra Rift and in Mt Kenya. Azimio does so everywhere else aside from Northern where the margins between them are quite modest. However, the fact that neither achieves two-thirds support in seven of the nine zone helps to explain why their respective campaigns efforts continue to crisscross and overlap each other, sometimes almost on a daily basis,” it adds. 

In terms of age distribution, the report shows that most of those aged between 18-24 years would split their votes between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga at 46 percent, while those aged above 53 years would cast their vote for Mr Odinga at 47 percent, against Dr Ruto’s 43 percent.  

The number of undecided voters, according to the poll, now stands at about 5.2 percent. The opinion poll was conducted between July 21 and July 26 this year and has a margin of error of plus or minus two. 

“Among those either undecided or who declined to reveal their presidential preferences, there are considerably more women than men at 11 percent versus 4 percent,” the poll says. 

Uhuru's legacy

According to the survey, on President Uhuru Kenyatta's legacy, most Kenyans believe that the Jubilee administration has performed better in improving the country's infrastructure, security as well as social protection and welfare.

Photo credit: Tifa

On the negative side, most respondents believe the President is responsible for the high cost of living, increasing debt and unemployment.

Download a copy of the Tifa poll below: