ODM leader Raila Odinga.
Posts on X from two of opposition leader Raila Odinga’s comrades-in-arms during the 1990s struggle against one-party dictatorship said it all: “Raila you are no longer @RailaOdinga Baba. The Gen Zee-Millennial Movement is now the official opposition. Now you are in your fourth — Moi, Kibaki, Uhuru and Ruto — handchequeshake. Always hid in plain sight. May the blood and tears of the young haunt you all your life,” wrote Prof Kivutha Kibwana, who led the civil society campaign for a new constitution from the mid-1990s at a time the political classes were complacent with opposition seats in Parliament. He later went to serve as a cabinet minister in President Mwai Kibaki’s government, and later as Governor for Makueni.
Lawyer Gitobu Imanyara, the founding editor and publisher of the Nairobi Law Monthly, one of the alternative press outlets that took up the fight against dictatorship when mainstream media was afraid to take on the system, was just as blunt: “Raila Odinga’s ODM party has, by accepting to join Ruto’s collapsing regime, betrayed everything that the Gen Z revolution stands for. ODM Deputy Party leaders Hassan Ali Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya and ODM National Chairman John Mbadi together with their National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi think they can slow down or subvert Kenyans’ determination to forge ahead and realise the vision and mission of our Constitution. They will fail most miserably. They are traitors,” he wrote.
Imanyara suffered detention and torture under the Moi regime and went on to serve one term in Parliament after attainment of the multi-party system. He now publishes another legal journal, The Platform, on having sold the Nairobi Law Monthly to another outspoken lawyer, Ahmednassir Abdullahi. The two posts aptly capture what in civil society activist groups and some opposition political circles as a grand betrayal in Raila entering a political pact with President William Ruto and allowing four of his ODM party acolytes to take up seats in the Cabinet.
Cutting a deal
That Raila was cutting a deal with the President had been signalled for a while, but the speed with which it happened after a series of denials and contradictory messages left his Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya opposition coalition colleagues outraged. Raila’s presidential election running-mate at the 2022 elections, Narc Kenya party leader Martha Karua, officially pulled out of the Azimio coalition agreement in a terse letter that only alluded to ‘political developments’ without going into the detail the circumstances behind her decision.
Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, Jeremiah Kioni of former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s wing of Jubilee Party and other Azimio leaders were left seething and crying foul. Most were reluctant to condemn Raila directly, instead firing their salvos at Ruto, whom they accused of working to decimate the opposition. But they still termed ODM acceptance of cabinet positions a betrayal of Azimio and the principles that hold the opposition together, as well as betrayal of the Gen Z revolt which brought Ruto almost to his knees, and directly was responsible for the capitulation which made the president clutch on to Ruto for survival.
Contacted by The Weekly Review, Kalonzo, who is best-placed to assume Azimio leadership, said he accepts assurances from Raila that ODM getting Cabinet slots does not amount to a political pact. That is technically correct as there was no coalition agreement preceding Ruto’s nomination of Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, John Mbadi and Opiyo Wandayi to his new cabinet.
Kalonzo also accepts the view from ODM secretary-general Edwin Sifuna and other party legislators that they remain firmly in Azimio, and that those joining the cabinet are doing so their individual capacities rather than as representatives of the party.
“There’s, however, a lot of suspicion around the whole matter,” he concluded, referring to a statement issued by Azimio “on betrayal of the Gen Zs and majority of Kenyans”. It is instructive that the Azimio statement was issued in the absence of Raila’s party officials or legislators, who make up the bulk of the parliamentary opposition. The dramatic development of Ruto’s Cabinet line-up served to revive the history of Raila’s mutating political positions and the history of finding a seat after ending up on the losing side of at most elections since 1997.
National dialogue
That was Kibwana was alluding to in X social media post, referring to 1997, 2013, 2017 and 2022. After the last presidential election in 2022 when Raila lost narrowly to Ruto, and then failed to unseat him in a Supreme Court petition, the veteran opposition chieftain embarked on a series of sometimes violent protests demanding electoral justice and solutions to skyrocketing cost of living. The protests were only stilled in May last year when former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo brokered a ceasefire via Ruto and Raila jointly appointing a National Dialogue Committee to look into a host of grievances.
Later the same year, Obasanjo convinced Ruto to back Raila’s candidacy for the African Union Commission chairmanship. The opposition leader would from then on have to slow down on strident criticism of the same government that was sponsoring his quest for the AU job. The arrangement worked both ways. Ruto was rid of a perennial foe, and Raila could take a prestigious continental assignment that as he turned 80 offered a dignified retirement from the hurly-burly of local politics. Throughout the period of the Azimio protests and the subsequent National Dialogue Committee (NADOC) talks, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua led a force fightback against any outcome that would give Raila foothold in government. He went to the extent of warning Ruto against accommodating Raila in the manner the opposition chief went into a ‘handshake’ arrangement with then President Uhuru after the 2017 elections, promising to set up a series of ‘traps’ at State House to block his entry.
Even Ruto throughout the period was firm that he would never allow a political pact, but the reality now is that whatever they term it, Ruto and Raila are in a political union. The opposition chief may not have wangled for himself a seat in the Cabinet, but ODM loyalists beholden to him are set be in the highest policy-making organ which will be now largely insulated from opposition scrutiny. Despite Kalonzo and company insisting that Azimio remains intact with or without Raila’s troops, the fact is that ODM makes up the largest component of the official opposition, and is now likely to be voting with the government side in Parliament.
Uhuru-Raila handshake
Ruto, during his final term as Deputy President, was one of the fiercest critics of the Uhuru-Raila handshake, which had the effect of sidelining him from the centre of power. He has borrowed the same strategy to keep his own DP in check. The tendency to cut political deals often seen as betrayal, and often leaving allies flatfooted, goes back to 1997, when Raila finished third in the presidential election behind incumbent Daniel arap Moi of Kanu and Mwai Kibaki Democratic Party, Kibaki was gearing-up to challenge the results through a two-pronged approach, a Electoral Court petition and the launch of street protests. For the latter, he sorely needed Raila’s mobilisation skills, and the two engaged in a series of consultations to form up plans. Suddenly, without warning, Raila crossed over to Moi’s side and his National Development Party entered into a cooperation pact with Moi’s Kanu. Raila earned a cabinet slot and Kibaki’s protests withered away.
In the run-up to the 2002 elections which also marked expiry of Moi’s final term, NDP was formally ‘swallowed’ by Kanu through an official merger, with Raila getting the post of Secretary-General in an outfit designed to craft the post-Moi era for the Independence party. Moi sought to revamp the party by bringing in a corp of young leaders to replace jettisoned entrenched veterans such then then Vice President George Saitoti and veteran secretary-general Joseph Kamotho.
The new-look Kanu was made up of a quartet of vice chairman in political newcomer Uhuru Kenyatta, son of Kenya’s first president Jomo Kenyatta, and Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Noah Katana Ngala, who had already served in various party and government positions. Another newcomer into the Kanu top ranks was a youthful William Ruto, who played a key role behind the crafting the new leadership structure. All hell broke out, however, when Moi unveiled Uhuru as his preferred successor to take on the opposition alliance headed by Kibaki with support from Kijana Wamalwa of Ford Kenya and Charity Ngilu then of SDP. Played
Uhuru’s coronation
From the Kanu, side it was Raila who led the protests against Uhuru’s coronation, leading a mass exit in which most Saitoti, Kamotho, Moody Awori, William ole Ntimama and other party stalwarts bolted. They took over the little-known Liberal Development Party, and immediately started negotiating a coalition deal with the Kibaki-Wamalwa-Ngilu axis under the National Alliance of Kenya.
They were also holding talks with former cabinet minister Simeon Nyachae, who had taken over the Ford People party and was also gunning for the presidency. It was in the midst of negotiations between different outfits that at a joint opposition rally at Uhuru Park, Raila came out with the famous ‘Kibaki Tosha’ pronouncement which secured the unified opposition ticket for the DP leader. He had not informed his ex-Kanu colleagues beforehand of the momentous move, but those with presidential ambitions of their own, such as former Vice President Saitoti, were left to go along.
Raila settled for a cabinet position in the National Rainbow Coalition government formed after Kibaki, on the new National Rainbow Coalition ticket, trounced Uhuru. It has been agreed that the Kanu newcomers would not upset the existing agreement by which Wamalwa had been the designated Vice President. The new government turned out a rickety contraption of competing interests, matters coming to a head when the Kibaki and ex-Kanu forces differed on the proposed new constitution. It was Raila who led the 2005 charge against a document crafted largely by the Kibaki side., when the daft went to a referendum the electoral commission came up with the Banana and Orange symbols for the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ sides respectively. Raila, now having led a good number of the ex-Kanu government brigade into teaming with the Kanu opposition led by forces led by Uhuru and Ruto, saw an opportunity and styled No campaign after the Orange Revolution that had driven the resistance in Ukraine the previous year.
After losing the referendum, Kibaki disbanded his Cabinet, and reconstituted it shortly afterwards, leaving out Raila and other Orange stalwarts. The Orange Democratic Movement was born with Ruto and Mudavadi amongst the key players from Kanu as Uhuru shifted camp to Kibaki. At the 2007 elections, Raila presented Kibaki a fierce challenge, losing a close contest that is widely believed to have been massively rigged in favour of the incumbent.
Violent protest
The outcome was independent Kenya’s most serious descent into chaos as Raila’s supporters reacted with violent protest, put fiercely by security and counter-violence by ethnic militia supported by key government figures. Kenya would probably have slid into civil war had a team of international mediators led by former United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan not successfully intervened. At one point, the peace negotiations were at a stalemate, with both Kibaki and Raila seemingly hostage to hardliners within their respective camps. Kibaki had the likes of Uhuru Kenyatta and Martha Karua on his side. Raila had William Ruto and Musalia Mudavadi.
Finally, Annan hit on the ingenious idea of having Kibaki and Raila meet face-to-face in the absence of their respective squads. The direct talks at Sagana State Lodge resulted in the deal that formed the Government of National Unity, with Kibaki as President and Musyoka as Vice President; and Raila as Prime Minister from the other side. Uhuru and Mudavadi came in a Deputy Premiers on each side, with Ruto having to be content with a ministerial portfolio. From the word go, it was a fragile arrangement. Key members of Kibaki’s kitchen cabinet worked hard to keep Raila at bay, spawning the famous ‘nusu mkeka’ (half carpet) analogy after the PM publicly complained of government bureaucrats denying him even a piece of the red carpet on his official functions.
Eventually, however, Kibaki and Raila struck up a cordial working relationship. Together. They delivered on the new progressive constitutional order. Ruto, by then, had been drummed out of the Cabinet after falling out with Raila. He had also become the face of opposition to the new Constitution. Separately, Ruto and Uhuru were facing indictment before the International Criminal Court for their roles in the 2007 post-election violence, where they were accused of being key perpetrators on opposite sides.
The 2103 elections took place under the shadow of the ICC trials. Raila, heading the Cord alliance with the support of Kalonzo and Wetang’ula, while Uhuru headed the Jubilee alliance backed by Ruto. The two had been re-united by ICC trails. Mudavadi was also in the coalition. In a notable upset, Uhuru and Ruto emerged winners, relegating Raila once again to opposition ranks. Come 2017, and Raila entered the fray again, forming another coalition, National Supper Alliance, which allowed him to wiggle out of Cord coalition agreement by which he would have had to give way to Musyoka.
Mudavadi also joined the team, but it was yet another narrow defeat, which however culminated in a historic Supreme court verdict nullifying the results. Just before the repeat poll, however, Raila pulled out of the race citing failure to reform the electoral commission. Musyoka, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula insist to this day that he never informed them of the decision beforehand.
For them on Raila embarked on another adventure, starting with a series of street protests and culminating in his mock swearing in as the ‘People’s President’. Again, his opposition coalition partners claimed that they were mostly kept in the dark on the provocative move that had incurred the wrath of the Uhuru government. They all kept away from the event at Uhuru Park. Not long afterwards came the Uhuru-Raila handshake. The Musyoka, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula Nasa quartet claimed they were left in the dark as the coalition leader struck a peace pact with the president.
Come alliance building ahead of the 2022 elections, and Mudavadi and Wetang’ula jumped across to Ruto’s side, justifying their shift accusations that Raila was always shortchanging his coalition partners and making major decisions without consulting them. Musyoka stayed on despite being overlooked for running mate when Raila brought in Karua, but he had first made a major row on broken promises to be handed the after the 2013 and 2017 losses.
Raila shifting to Ruto’s side only seems to confirm legend of a politician who serially loses elections, but sooner or later engineers for himself a seat at the high table. Whether that is the stuff of genius or crass opportunism will forever depend on the side from which one approaches him, but what cannot be denied is that when Raila coughs, Kenya quakes.
