What BBI judgement means for the big three

Whichever way today’s BBI judgement goes, it will have a significant sway on Deputy President William Ruto, ODM boss Raila Odinga and the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) leaders’ presidential campaign strategies. 

All the three campaign teams, which so far make the “big three” of those who have declared interest in next year’s presidential contest, have been waiting with baited breath for the BBI judgement with a keen eye on its implication for the number of the executive seats available for power sharing.

Allowing the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) constitutional amendments referendum to proceed will potentially expand the number of executive slots in the governance structure, which makes it easier for presidential aspirants to build wide coalitions.  

ANC deputy party leader Ayub Savula agreed in an interview yesterday that BBI, if allowed, will open up the space for the 2022 General Election negotiations based on the expanded executive. 

“It is very critical for OKA to distribute those slots to our principals. If it does not go through, we will accept and we will focus on sharing the government equally,” said Mr Savula.

With political pundits arguing that no political party can attain the Constitutional threshold of 50 plus one without forming pre-election alliances with their rivals, crafting those coalitions will be pegged on the availability of seats that can be shared.

Presidential aspirants

The proposed BBI amendments provide that members of the Cabinet, led by a prime minister and two deputies, will be drawn from the National Assembly.

They argue that the BBI favours both those coalescing around President Uhuru Kenyatta- Mr Odinga, Amani National Congress’s (ANC) Musalia Mudavadi, Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka, Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula and Kanu’s Gideon Moi as well as DP Ruto.

Without BBI, it becomes an uphill task to convince presidential aspirants to shelve their ambitions for the sake of others.

Apart from being a yardstick for President Kenyatta to influence his succession, BBI would also make it easier for him to consolidate his political bastion of Mt Kenya with additional constituencies.

DP Ruto’s lieutenants, who had opposed the BBI amendments, also argue that were it to pass, the BBI will be a welcome addition to their campaign matrix, which has recently seen divisions with affiliate parties demanding to retain their own identity even as they back the DP for the top job. 

“BBI is a good document for politicians because it creates posts for them, but bad for Wananchi. This is because it expands the Executive and Parliament making Kenya pay billions more per annum. The choice for DP was, he follows his selfish interests or he protects Wananchi. Unlike other politicians, he chose to support Wananchi,” Murang’a Senator Irungu Kang’ata said in an interview yesterday.

The DP has been on record saying that proposed constitutional changes will create more positions at the top and would not solve Kenya’s economic and political problems.

Formidable alliance

“In this country, there are two political groups with totally different ideologies, one believes that our problem is ethnicity requiring changing the constitution to create positions to be occupied by tribal leaders but the other one which I belong, we believe that our problem is economy and we must sort it out,” he said on Wednesday in Nairobi.

Keiyo South MP Daniel Rono, another Ruto ally, said the DP needs to bring as many people as possible to their camp and it is likely to be easier in case he (Ruto) has slots to offer.

“In fact, the BBI has a number of good things that will enable the DP to form a formidable alliance ahead of the 2022 general election. Under such circumstances, he needs positions to give because there is no way you will approach someone to join you if he/she cannot get something,” said Mr Rono.

Constitutional lawyer, Bobby Mkangi, argued that if it sails through, BBI would make it easy for politicians to craft pre-election coalitions.

“Generally, this document is good for any politician who wishes to ascend to power come next year. This BBI is more of the president and Raila’s strategy for winning next year’s general election,” said Mr Mkangi.

It has already emerged that OKA has suspended any coalition talks with ODM, until after the anticipated BBI judgment by the Court of Appeal today. The alliance has also put aside talks on who to be their flagbearer until the fate of the BBI is known.

Both Mr Odinga and OKA leaders have suggested that they will respect the outcome of the BBI judgement and focus on winning the 2022 presidential election. 

Respect court’s outcome

“Indeed, we are also aware that the Court of Appeal is set to rule on the Constitution Amendment Bill (2020), this Friday, August 20, 2021. As an alliance that believes in the rule of law, we shall accept and respect the verdict of the courts. Irrespective of the outcome, we wish to restate that our resolve to be the leadership committed to seeing a one, united Kenya,” read an OKA statement after a meeting held in Naivasha earlier this week.

On Wednesday, Mr Odinga said he will respect the court’s outcome and that he, together with President Kenyatta, will instead concentrate on clinching the presidency and forming the government next year.

“If the courts rule otherwise, it is not the end of the road. We will keep BBI in a certain envelope and go on and take over government first in 2022. After that, we shall go back to BBI because there is a lot that our people want to be changed in the Constitution,” said Mr Odinga.

He added: “We do not want to waste any more time by going to the Supreme Court. We will now concentrate fully on elections. After clinching power, then we will go for BBI.”

According to Mr Mkangi, today’s judgment by the Court of Appeal will be a win-win outcome for DP Ruto.

“If the BBI sails in today’s ruling, it will be a win-win situation for Ruto because it will help him in crafting a pre-election alliance but if it flops, he has been against it from the onset hence it does not affect his 2022 political path,” Mr Mkangi told the Nation.

Mr Mkangi, who was a member of the Committee of Experts that drafted the 2010 Constitution, argues that BBI has been a winning strategy for Mr Kenyatta, the former Prime Minister and OKA leaders, and will therefore be a loss to them if it is struck out.

Pre-election pacts

ODM Secretary General, Edwin Sifuna, said they were not pushing for BBI for the sake of winning next year’s election, arguing that their focus is on strengthening governance through better legal frameworks and policies.

“The BBI conversation was not about crafting teams for 2022. It was a conversation about what we can do to better the lot of Kenyans through positive policy, constitutional and legal interventions. These conversations on achieving gender equity, strengthening devolution and empowerment of our young people will not stop no matter how the court rules today,” he said.

Prof Egara Kabaji, a political analyst, says pre-election pacts that are in limbo currently are likely to be salvaged with the BBI, which provides extra positions to be shared by the political bigwigs.

“Coalitions are definitely going to be there and they will start planning on who will be the president, prime minister and deputies. They will go into 2022 polls knowing who will be who,” says Prof Kabaji.

Political analyst-cum-governance-expert Javas Bigambo opines that contenders will be given leeway in persuading those they would like to join forces with before the election should BBI be upheld.

“BBI architecture no doubt provides great opportunity for political pre-election coalitions on the basis of the executive slots that can be shared,” said Mr Bigambo.

“The Uhuru succession is inevitable, only that occasioning structural changes in the constitution would give him a swift opportunity to influence much of the succession game plan and instrumentalise various elements to quench his political thirst,” he added.

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