ODM party leader Raila Odinga (center), flanked by his deputies Hassan Joho (left) and Wycliffe Oparanya, speaks to the media in Nairobi on July 2, 2024.
The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) led by Mr Raila Odinga is facing a silent war on whether or not to join a planned national dialogue aimed at addressing issues raised by anti-government protesters.
The party is scheduled to hold a special joint National Executive Committee and Parliamentary Group meeting on Wednesday.
It is widely expected that a decision by the Central Management Committee to embrace the multi-sectoral talks initiated by President William Ruto will be ratified.
Following street protests spearheaded by Gen Z, the President caved in to pressure and declined to assent to the Finance Bill, 2024.
Last week, he sacked his entire Cabinet except Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs Musalia Mudavadi.
Dr Ruto promised to form a broad-based government that will include members of the opposition. He has also promised Kenyans prudent spending of public funds.
As ODM toys with the decision to join the government, the Nation has established that there are several dissenting voices within the party. Some party members fear that by going to bed the Kenya Kwanza government, which is facing strong opposition among Kenyans, ODM may suffer irreparable damage.
For his part, Mr Odinga has been flip-flopping on his position. He appeared to endorse the talks at one point before backtracking and saying, “they are not ready to dialogue with people with blood of innocent Kenyans on their hands”.
But sources in ODM confided in the Nation that Mr Odinga has already made a decision to embrace the talks. The source said that his public attacks of the government were only meant to manage supporters.
The former prime minister is said to have the support of his two deputies — former governors Hassan Joho (Mombasa) and Wycliffe Oparanya (Kakamega), who have been rallying their regions to embrace dialogue.
The leaders opine that his is the right moment to engage the President to address their concerns and those raised by the Gen Zs.
They said that squandering the chance would amount to “dereliction of duty at a time the country is calling for engagement.”
“In fact the feeling of many of us is that our brothers in Azimio have formed a 2027 line-up backed by former president Uhuru Kenyatta, which does not involve ODM hence the need to look for a political option,” a senior ODM official told Nation.
He added that should “President Ruto manoeuvre alone out of the current political crisis, then they stand to lose big time because the “shareholders” philosophy advanced by Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua will be strengthened.”
Mr Odinga, Mr Joho, Mr Oparanya, ODM Secretary- General Edwin Sifuna, ODM chairman John Mbadi, ODM treasurer Timothy Bosire, Director of Elections Junet Mohamed, Director of Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi, among other senior party officials, are members of the CMC that sanctioned the dialogue last Friday.
Nation has established that the party is determined to go it alone to the talks outside the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya framework.
President William Ruto addresses journalists at KICC, Nairobi flanked by his deputy Rigathi Gachagua, Azimio leader Raila Odinga and other national leaders on July 9, 2024.
Mr Mbadi told the Nation on Tuesday that the decision is up to members to make at today’s meeting, but he exuded confidence that the majority of Members of Parliament are for the talks.
“We have a choice to make, either hang in the opposition or fight with the hope of forming the government in 2027 or work with Ruto for the long term journey of better governance in our country,” Mr Mbadi said.
“We cannot force anyone to have dialogue. It would have been good if we went as Azimio, but if other partners don’t want to, then we will go as a party if members ratify the decision of the Central Management Committee tomorrow (today),” Mr Mbadi said.
He pointed out that those opposed to the talks have their right to do so but also challenged them to provide an alternative for the country
“We are going to the talks because we want a sustainable solution, not these piecemeal and cosmetic actions by President Ruto. For instance, he declined to assent to the Finance Bill, 2024 but that does solve the taxation problem we have as a country? Mr Mbadi asked.
While endorsing the talks on Friday, Mr Sifuna clarified that their decision to participate in the national conversation should not be misconstrued to mean they are joining the sinking ship of the Kenya Kwanza administration.
“The emerging issues and the urgent need to address them is not about rescuing the Kenya Kwanza regime. The nation is bigger than any one of us. We see this as a chance to rescue our nation and pull it back from the precipice,” Mr Sifuna said.
But even as the top leadership seems to have aligned on the matter of the talks, other senior leaders in ODM feel otherwise.
Siaya Governor James Orengo, a close ally of Mr Odinga, has publicly expressed his reservations over the talks called by President Ruto.
“Ruto’s invitation is a poisoned chalice. He knows where the people of Kenya want him to go. Talking to Ruto is to assure his survival. He is the one who is going to gain because he will be in power until 2027,” Mr Orengo said over the weekend at an event attended by Mr Odinga.
He said that the Gen Zs, who have been the face of anti-government protests that led to the withdrawal of the contentious Finance Bill, 2024, have demonstrated that it is possible to send President Ruto home even before the end of his first term.
“Gen Zs have showed us that with them we don’t have to wait until 2027. Ruto must go!” Mr Orengo charged.
Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi said that whereas Mr Odinga remains their undisputed leader whose wise counsel they will always follow, “William Ruto and his Deputy Rigathi Gachagua remain Kenya’s problem.”
“I want to speak my mind. The fish rots from the head and the buck stops with William Ruto. The problem in this country is not the Cabinet he sacked, not even the Parliament he controls. These two people, William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua, are the people,” Mr Osotsi said.
“We cannot dialogue with someone with blood on his hands. So we cannot sanitise Ruto. He has to pack and go home,” he added.
Lugari MP Nabii Nabwera told Mr Odinga to leave Gen Zs to streamline the country’s governance.
“Gen Z have fought for the country. Let Ruto just go. Our children have been killed during the protests and we cannot sit with them on the same table. If you are going for the talks, just go alone,” Mr Nabwera said.
Budalang’i MP Raphael Wanjala said that it is only fair to leave the Gen Zs drive the revolution they started.
“Let Gen Z complete the task they started. As a parent, after you start building a house and you fail to finish the roofing and your son comes in to help, you don’t refuse, you allow him to help you complete your house.
“We have struggled with revolution and now that our sons and daughters have come, please help us complete this task,” said Mr Wanjala.
ODM Vice Chairman Simba Arati argued that progressive dialogue must ensure that the families of those who were killed by the police are compensated.
Justice must be served. Ruto has to release all the people who were arrested. That’s how dialogue must be structured. All those police officers involved in the killings should be arrested and prosecuted, so should the corrupt former Cabinet Secretaries who were sent home,” the Kisii governor said.
ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna (center) addresses the media accompanied by other party officials in Nairobi on July 12, 2024.
He cautioned those opposes to the talks that “if Kenya drowns, we cannot salvage it.”
“Nothing is as easy as it looks, everything takes longer than we expect. And if anything can go wrong it will at the worst possible moment. Baba (Mr Odinga) you have rescued this nation many times, please save it now so that we see light as we head to ‘Canaan’,” Mr Arati said.
His sentiments were shared by Busia Governor Paul Otuoma, who said the country is in a difficult situation and “we cannot let Kenya crumble.”
“I was there in 2007 when they stole our victory but Raila said the country was bigger than all of us. We are in a difficult situation, but we hope Raila will lead us to ensure Gen Zs get their rights and Kenya remains stronger,” Mr Otuoma said.
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Saboti MP Caleb Amisi warned against people giving Mr Odinga ultimatums on the talks.
“I pity Raila. You love the nation and your people. We are praying for you. We are not threatening you. Let us not give Raila ultimatums,” he said.
He told Mr Odinga: “Regarding the formation of a government of national unity, if that will stabilise the country, then give the list of people deemed fit to be ministers but come back and join us in the struggle.
“We have been with you in the trenches and we will stand with you.”
Mr Odinga now finds himself at a critical political crossroads, grappling with a major dilemma as he navigates his engagements with President Ruto’s administration.
While initially Mr Odinga endorsed the talks during a joint presser with the President and other government and opposition chiefs, the ODM leader is also increasingly facing internal opposition within his Azimio coalition.
“We have agreed to give the people an opportunity to be heard and to articulate the grievances that are ailing our country so that a lasting solution can be found,” he said during a briefing at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) last week.
On Sunday, while visiting Kware in Mukuru kwa Njenga slums in Nairobi where mutilated bodies of unidentified individuals were retrieved stashed in sacks, youth chanting anti-government slogans forced Mr Odinga to distance himself from the State-sanctioned talks that had been expected to begin on Monday.
“Those who have done these heinous acts against our people are animals. As Azimio, we cannot sit for talks with people whose hands are full of blood of innocent youth,” Mr Odinga charged, amid chants of “no dialogue” by the youth.
He went on: “Their hands are full of blood. We cannot dialogue with such people. That’s why I’m saying “no dialogue!”
