The tense situation brought about by former deputy party leaders Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho, ex-chair John Mbadi and ex-secretary political affairs Opiyo Wandayi, all angling to succeed Mr Odinga, saw the party postpone its planned grassroots elections scheduled for April.
In a typical case of killing two birds with one stone, Opposition chief Raila Odinga used the broad-based government deal with President William Ruto to settle succession wrangles that had threatened to tear his ODM party apart.
The arrangement also saw him get a foothold in government and by extension earned him the support of the State for his African Union Commission chairmanship bid.
Four months ago, before the Gen Z uprising over the contentious Finance Bill 2024 and the dissolution of President Ruto’s inaugural cabinet, the scramble for the soul of the ODM party by Mr Odinga’s loyal lieutenants had gone a notch higher despite spirited efforts to keep their ambitions in check.
Despite Mr Odinga’s pleas for the party stalwarts to put on hold their campaigns to inherit him, the intensity of the lobbying had hit a fever pitch, pitting different camps aligned to the top contenders, threatening the cohesion in the party.
ODM party leader Raila Odinga (centre). Inset (from left): Junet Mohamed, Gladys Wanga, George Aladwa, James Orengo, Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino.
The tense situation brought about by former deputy party leaders Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho, ex-chair John Mbadi and ex-secretary political affairs Opiyo Wandayi, all angling to succeed Mr Odinga, saw the party postpone its planned grassroots elections scheduled for April.
Now insiders privy to the happenings have confided in Nation. Africa that the inclusion of the four in Cabinet was a strategic move by Mr Odinga to keep the party intact.
“Baba (Mr Odinga) allowed the former party officials to join cabinet to diffuse the building tension in the party as they had all taken hardline positions and this was threatening the stability of the party,” disclosed an ODM official from Nyanza region who sought anonymity.
Another MP also affirmed, “These people were not relenting. They had formed camps and were busy rallying members to support them. Each had a stake and was illustrating what they had done to the party and why they were tick.”
Multi-sources who spoke to Nation.Africa confirmed that immediately the cabinet discussion was mooted, all abandoned their quest to succeed Mr Odinga and “this brought calm among camps established” in the party.
To complicate matters, Mr Mbadi had secured the endorsement of Mama Ida Odinga and other leaders, when she publicly asked people whether they thought he was the right candidate for the job.
Likewise, Mr Wandayi was also backed by Mr Odinga’s elder brother Senator Oburu Oginga at a public event, saying they will decide when the time was right and also rallied members, especially MPs as he served as the National Assembly Minority Leader.
Then, Mr Joho who made a comeback after a leave of absence even skipping the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition party anti-government protests against the Finance Bill, 2023 and the high cost of living, demanded the same post.
He defended himself saying, he owes no one an explanation as his political mentor, Mr Odinga was properly briefed and was aware of his whereabouts and sought to remain in the Coast Kingship.
He immediately embarked on a campaign, crisscrossing the ODM strongholds across the country to galvanise his support and did not shy away was stating his intent at an event in Wajir county, also attended by Mr Oparanya and Mr Odinga.
Political might
He intensified campaigns, and rekindled memories of the 2014 botched party elections at a time he got endorsement from leaders at the coast to run for the presidency in 2027.
"People have talked about succeeding Raila Odinga. What I want to say as Hassan Joho, the thing I inherit from Raila is the ideology that he has taught me through my years of politics, thoughts, movements, direction and consistency, courage and political might,” said Joho in May, at the height of the succession battle.
But also affirmed, "The government coming in 2027 belongs to ODM and there are two things. If not Raila Odinga, it is Hassan Joho. The person I can leave without question is Raila, but the others like my brother Oparanya, we will fight in house and then we will decide.”
The face-off between Cabinet Secretary (CS) Oparanya (Cooperatives) and Joho (Mining) played out many times, with each side pitching for why they should be the best to fit Mr Odinga’s shoes.
Mr Oparanya was also banking on the Western region's support and loyalty to the party, as one of the top officials who stood by Mr Odinga, after they lost the 2022 presidential polls.
The appointment to the Cabinet of the four ostensibly averted a potential crisis and cracks in the party.
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino now stresses the need to urgently hold party elections in preparation for 2027 polls.
“If the intention to front our top leadership for the cabinet slots was to address the simmering succession politics in the party, then it is the best time to conduct grassroots elections,” he stated, adding that this will inject a ‘breath of fresh air’ in the party.
“Our focus should now should shift to party elections. We want elections held in all levels from the Party leader, to the Executive office and the grassroots,” said Mr Owino, adding that this will seek to strengthen the party and build confidence.
Another MP who declined to be named downplayed the same, stressing all four were qualified to be party leaders however, the cabinet slot is also a huge responsibility.
“Nothing stops the former officials from seeking any party position. They are not out of the equation. They remain party members and can engage in party affairs,” said the MP, who dismissed the claims as ‘cheap propaganda’.
Political analyst Martin Oloo however faults the political settlement saying ODM is a democratic and should therefore walk the talk.
“Leadership succession cannot be sorted through boardroom consensus or trace among leaders. This undermines the democratic principles of governance, transparency and accountability,” said Mr Oloo.
He questioned how parties intend to build on their ideologies when the leaders are a circle of cabal, who are more interested in settling competing political interests.
The party has now announced its plans to conduct a grassroots election in November, however, Mr Oloo scoffed at the announcement, saying it has always just remained ‘an announcement”.
“You sort leadership issues through elections to give members a chance to elect their preferred leader. It is unfortunate that the party has not hold party elections since Men in Black saga at Kasarani sports complex,” said Mr Oloo.
He stressed,” The party should adhere to the laws of the land. The Constitution and the subsidiary laws enhance good governance through transparency and accountability. When there is a vacancy, it should be filed through an election not handpicking like ‘movement of chair’.”
He said political parties should adhere to the democratic principles and not an individual or individuals’ affair to decide on behalf of members as is becoming the norm among Kenyan political parties.
He cited parties like Jubilee Party (JP), ODM, United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Wiper party, saying they operate like changing ‘clothes’ but not ‘people’.
“Why should we have aspirants subjected to nominations why the officials who are not elected are given direct tickets? The process should apply to all,” he urged.
The unthinkable
Again, Mr Odinga did the unthinkable, when the debate surfaced again that he was exiting as the party leader and chaired the Central Management Committee (CMC) which settled on Kisumu governor Anyang Nyong’o to act in his absence as opposed to his Siaya counterpart James Orengo and other who had shown interest.
Loyalty, experience, trusted advisor and no political baggage formed the top leadership ingredients that saw Governor Nyong’o chosen by Mr Odinga to steady the party in his absence.
According to ODM insiders, officials and supporters, it is Prof Nyong’o’s service and commitment to the party over the past few decades that made him stand out as the obvious choice for the position of the acting party leader as Mr Odinga focuses on his AUC chairperson campaigns.
Speaking in Kisumu, Kisumu Deputy Governor Mathew Owili, Woman Representative Ruth Odinga, Kisumu Central MP Joshua Oron and Paul Akeyo, the ODM Kisumu County Coordinating Committee believed that Mr Odinga had trust and confidence in Prof Nyong’o because of his astute and visionary leadership.
“His experience and loyalty to the party dates back to 2005 when he played a big role in the formation of the party. As a pioneer ODM secretary-general, Prof Nyong’o has worked hard to help grow the party to its current status as the largest opposition party in East and Central Africa,” said Mr Akeyo.
Another factor was that it was not the first time the Kisumu governor was holding the fort when Mr Odinga was preoccupied with other duties.
In the year 2014 during his month-long visit to the US, Mr Odinga appointed Prof Nyong’o, the then Kisumu Senator, to run the country.
Prof Nyong’o has over the years played an important role behind the scenes in shaping the party’s policies and strategies.
"As Kisumu governor for two terms, his leadership strategies have seen Kisumu emerge as a top destination for local and international investors. He has drastically transformed Kisumu City. With him at the helm of ODM leadership, we are confident the party will continue to grow to new heights to execute the aspirations of Kenyans,” said Mr Akeyo.
What also set him apart from the other candidates for the position was that the others were already holding other positions within the party at the time of his appointment, therefore, Mr Odinga avoided duplication of roles.
Homa Bay governor is the party’s chairperson, Kisii County boss Simba Arati (deputy party leader) while Edwin Sifuna is ODM’s secretary-general.
Then there was the issue of political ambitions that could cloud the judgment of any candidate should they be appointed party leader.
While Governor Orengo does not hold any position in ODM, he, together with Ms Wanga, Mr Arati and Mr Sifuna, are serving their first terms and are likely to go for a second one.
While this was viewed as a possibility to have them misuse the position for their own desires and ambitions, Prof Nyong’o, who is serving his final term, is seen as not having that major ‘political baggage’ which may interfere with the running of the party affairs.
According to Mr Javas Migambo, a political analyst, the choice of Prof Nyong’o was because the others are political ‘hot heads and cantankerous’.
“Nyong’o appears to be sober, less volatile and mature having held the position in not only ODM but SDP. So he has experience dealing with party mandarins compared to Orengo and other competitors who are yet to manage parties as he has done,” said Mr Migambo.
