President William Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua during the National Prayer Breakfast at Safari Park Hotel in Nairobi on May 30, 2024.
They defied all odds and paired to seize power in the 2022 presidential election- only to fallout bitterly two years into their presidency.
The relationship between President William Ruto and his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, which has arguably hit rock bottom, might never be the same again, regardless of the outcome of the impeachment motion against the DP.
Buoyed by his new-found relationship with his main rival in the 2022 election, Raila Odinga, President Ruto, though yet to make a public statement regarding the ouster motion against his deputy, appears to have pulled the rug out from under him.
This is evident from the endorsement of the motion by majority legislators from his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party, and Mr Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
At least 291 MPs have signed in support of the impeachment motion sponsored by Kibwezi West MP Mwengi Mutuse, seeking the removal from office of the country’s second in command.
The National Assembly will consider it tomorrow (Tuesday) and should it garner the backing of two-thirds (233) of the 349-member House, the Motion will be submitted to the Senate. Conversely, if 117 reject it, the deputy president will survive.
After the impeachment trial in the Senate, a two-thirds majority will be sufficient to send the DP home, according to the impeachment procedure spelt out under Article 150 of the constitution.
But the DP will survive should the motion be rejected by a third of the members or should the Senate form a committee that finds the grounds of impeachment are not substantiated.
However, irrespective of the results of the motion, analysts say, President Ruto and Mr Gachagua’s relationship could be irreparable, owing to the suspicion between their camps.
This, even as the DP made an emotional plea to President Ruto and MPs for forgiveness ahead of his hearing in the National Assembly tomorrow (Tuesday), where his lawyers have promised to “demolish,” allegations levelled against him.
Vicious fightback
The DP’s allies have already promised a vicious fightback against President Ruto should he be ousted from office.
Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga termed the move to impeach Mr Gachagua as an affront to the people of Mt Kenya region.
“We are still telling the president that he has an opportunity to bring back his support in the mountain and salvage the situation but nobody should lie to him that he is still popular as he used to be.
“But we want to say that the accusations against the DP are very frivolous and such a motion is an attack on the people of Mt Kenya region with serious consequences,” Mr Kahiga said.
Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi told Nation that the relationship between President Ruto and his deputy seems to have broken down beyond repair.
“The two leaders’ relationship can never be the same when you know too well your partner is the one behind the push for your removal from office,” Mr Mwangangi said.
Mr Mwangangi however, noted that in order to maintain one united country, there is a need for leaders to address pertinent issues without going to the extreme.
“The president has the overall mandate to run the country. We haven’t heard him speak about this motion and we only hear from his allies. I think it is time for the Head of State himself to pronounce himself on this matter so that Kenyans can know from the horse’s mouth how he has been undermined by his deputy,” the deputy governor added.
Mr Gachagua had indicated that it would be unfair to hound him from office by more than 200 MPs yet he and President Ruto were elected by more than 7.1 million voters. He has insisted on public participation to have all Kenyans decide his fate and not some leaders.
Mr Gachagua, whose relationship with his boss has soured, has now embarked on various litigations in court to save himself from the looming ouster, as the president maintains a studious silence.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo argues that from the way President Ruto’s lieutenants have so far handled the ouster motion, the relationship between the DP and his boss seems to be “irreparably broken.”
“By way of his (DP’s) condescending remarks, brazenly chastising the president and political bravado, Gachagua literally crossed the Rubicon, and the relationship with Ruto got irreparably broken,” Mr Bigambo told Nation on Monday.
He went on: “There’s no longer trust and respect between them. Gachagua mistook his growing influence in Mt Kenya for politically indispensable capital, and evidently, his judgment was wrong. He can only test his political influence by resigning and facing off with Ruto in a contest, or endure the indignity of impeachment and lose his future in politics altogether.”
But for Dismas Mokua, President Ruto and Mr Gachagua’s political paths could still cross regardless of the outcome of the impeachment motion since politics is about interest.
“Politics is all about interests. Politicians are known to make decisions that citizens may find irrational and unreasonable.
“The probability does exist that irrespective of the impeachment outcome, President Ruto and DP Gachagua will push in the same direction if their political interests converge,” Mr Mokua told Nation.
Politicians, he noted, are known to align and realign at every turn when their interests are threatened.
“No permanent enemies but permanent interests. Mr Raila Odinga worked with President Moi despite the fact that Mr Odinga has suffered at the hands of Moi administration.
“Mr Odinga had a handshake with President Kenyatta after a bitter fallout. Mr Odinga has a working relationship with President Ruto after high octane presidential campaigns,” he added.
The analyst argues that nobody should thus be surprised if President Ruto and DP Gachagua are part of a political team as the country approaches 2027.
“Politicians don’t suffer from irreparable relationships. They are always pragmatic and driven by selfish political interests and therefore immunized from vagaries of irreparable political relationships,” says Mr Mokua.
DAP-Kenya deputy party leader Ayub Savula however, told Nation that from the look of things, “the die is cast and Gachagua is headed home,” with zero chances of reconciliation with his boss.
“Majority MPs have decided to send Gachagua home and I don’t know what the president will do to convince them otherwise and I don’t see Riggy G going to change even if he is spared.
“His relationship with the leaders has soured. Let the president elevate Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki to the position of DP and carry on with the rest of his term. The position belongs to Mt Kenya and the best person to take it is Prof Kindiki. He is far better than Gachagua. He has succeeded in the Interior docket and deserves elevation,” Mr Savula told Nation.
He faulted Mr Gachagua over claims of becoming “a DP for a region called ‘Mrima’ (Mt Kenya) yet he is supposed to serve all Kenyans.”
Prof Kindiki hails from Mt Kenya East but it has emerged there is a push to have a leader from the West to take over in a bid to “pacify” the region.
