New dilemma as global uptake of renewable energy falls short of target
Wind turbines. Wind power is a clean and renewable energy source.
The use of renewable energy jumped by a surprise 14 per cent in 2023 but is still below target, a new report shows, dealing a blow to ambitious plans to triple the use of energy from natural sources by 2030, as agreed at the 28th Conference of Parties (COP28).
Previously, the use of renewable energy around the world grew at an average rate of 10 per cent every year.
Experts at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) have warned that if countries around the world continue to grow at the rate of 10 per cent per year, only 7.5 terawatts (TW) of baseline capacity will be added by 2030.
This means that the target set by countries at COP28 last year will be missed by almost a third.
They further explain that if the 2023 capacity rate is maintained, the outlined tripling target of 11.2 terawatts (TW) by 2030 will fall short by 1.5 TW, still missing the target by 13.5 per cent.
“Renewable energy has been increasingly outperforming fossil fuels, but it is not the time to be complacent. Renewables must grow at a higher speed and scale. Our new report sheds light on the direction of travel. If we continue with the current growth rate, we will only face failure in reaching the tripling renewables target agreed in the UAE Consensus at COP28, consequently risking the goals of the Paris Agreement and 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,” IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera said in a statement.
COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber said there is a need to increase the speed and scale of renewable energy development. He reiterated that the world is still not on track to meet the target set last year and urged governments to work together.
“Governments need to set explicit renewable energy targets, look at actions like accelerating permitting and expanding grid connections, and implement smart policies that push industries to step up and incentivise the private sector to invest,” said Al Jaber.
Significant opportunity
“This moment provides a significant opportunity to add strong national energy targets in NDCs to support the global goal of keeping the 1.5 degrees Celsius target within reach. Above all, we must change the narrative that climate investment is a burden to it being an unprecedented opportunity for shared socio-economic development.”
Overall, studies show that moving away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy has a positive impact on the environment. It also ensures that the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is on track.
Unfortunately, over the last 12 months, data from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that the global warming average over the last year is 1.64 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 reference period.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), last year was the hottest year on record.
In Africa, the IRENA report shows that there has been a 3.5 per cent increase in renewable electricity generation.
“Acknowledging the urgent need for support and finance, IRENA is advancing the Accelerated Partnership for Renewables in Africa (APRA) initiative and is preparing an investment forum focused on APRA’s member countries later this year,” IRENA said in a statement.
Paradoxical situation
Isaac Kiva, secretary for Renewable Energy at Kenya's Ministry of Energy, said that as a continent we are in a paradoxical situation.
“We are blessed with abundant natural resources and our untapped renewable potential can power the continent and beyond. However, lack of appropriate and sufficient finance and investment is a big constraint to our ambition and goals,” he explains.
During the first Africa Climate Summit held in Nairobi last year, one of the key things that came out of the Nairobi Declaration is the call for about 300 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy on the African continent by 2030.
“For Kenya, this is a natural extension of our energy strategy. Utilising 93 percent of renewable energy in our grid, we are close to achieving our target of 100 per cent clean energy by the year 2030,” said Eng Kiva.
He adds that by harnessing green energy, Kenya aims to become an industrial powerhouse, contributing to the global economy. However, there are well-known stumbling blocks.
“Elevated capital costs and financing, shaped by an array of both tangible and intangible risk factors create a vicious cycle: our ability to invest consistently and strategically in basic infrastructure, social services, and skills development is severely hampered. And lack of that investment contributes to the high-risk premiums – making it harder for private projects to become viable and attractive,” he explains.
Other sources
Kenya is planning how to improve its renewable energy capacity, as well as embracing other sources that have not been fully exploited.
“We will seize this chance to cultivate new sectors such as mineral processing and green hydrogen production, leveraging our abundant mineral resources and young workforce. By doing so, we position ourselves to bolster the diversification of global value chains and contribute markedly to global decarbonisation,” explains Eng Kiva.
In a recent Energy Strategy Review published by Kenyan scientists in the journal Science Direct in July this year, they say that while the country is proud to produce more than 90 per cent of its energy from renewable sources, production is still low because existing policies are not being implemented as they should be.
In their report, they mention that Kenya had set a target of transitioning to renewable energy by 2022, but has failed to meet this target.
The study shows that incentives have helped people to adopt solar as a source of energy, especially in rural parts of the country where there is no electricity.
One obstacle to adoption, it says, is that solar, hydro and wind all have different seasons.
“The findings show that renewable energy is still underutilised, with the majority of the available resources having a less than 10 per cent extraction rate, notwithstanding goals such as ambitious Vision 2030, which would improve industrialisation,” the Energy Strategy Review explains.
“To increase renewable energy uptake (in Kenya), some of the positive effects include tax incentives, the encouragement of public‒private partnerships (PPPs), financial support to help investors, and the introduction of energy centres at the county level,” the scientists recommend.
