Ruto-Odinga ‘handshake’ is a wake-up call to plan for 2027

From January, President William Ruto has rolled out his new ‘African Union Strategy’ to recapture, retain and expand his power in 2027. Conceptually, President Ruto’s new AU strategy, now seemingly replacing the ‘hustler-dynasty’ class politics that swept him to power in 2022, brings to mind Patience Johnson’s quip: “In politics no permanent friends, no permanent enemies but permanent interest” ( Why Does an Orderly God Allow Disorder, 2012).

If Jaramogi Oginga Odinga saw Moi as “a giraffe with a long neck that sees very far”, then his political heir, Raila Odinga, must begin to see Ruto as the clever fox that wins every political game.

This is the third and final episode of the power of handshake and Kenya’s democracy. In the 2027 game,President Ruto is on the table, and Mr Odinga on the menu.

The Odinga scion is the kernel of Ruto’s AU strategy, which is unfolding as a catch-all campaign to clear all the hurdles to his re-election in 2027, especially in the wake of the seething political rebellion in the vote-rich Mount Kenya region.

By cleverly playing on the power of pictures in deal-making, President Ruto has shrewdly avoided the open accusation that he has entered a formal ‘co-operation’ or ‘handshake’ with his foe-turn-friend, Mr Odinga. The strategy gives Mr Odinga a long rope to hang himself, and to exit Kenya’s political scene with a smile and without a whimper.

President Ruto has weaved his support for Mr Odinga’s AU campaign into a clever game to clip the wings of his former friend-turn foe, retired President Uhuru Kenyatta, in national politics and to finish him off in pan-African and global politics.

Regionally, the AU position has created opportunities for President Ruto to make mend broken diplomatic fences with regional leaders, especially Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni. In this regard, President Ruto, accompanied by Mr Odinga, travelled to President Museveni’s Kisozi country home in western Uganda. Ruto’s Kisozi rendezvous with President Museveni and Mr Odinga helped him accomplish a threefold agenda.

First, the meeting resolved the oil import dispute that forced Uganda to sued Kenya at the East African Court of Justice (EACJ) and to reached out to Tanzania to use its Dar es Salaam and Tanga ports to import petroleum products to deal with oil cartels in Kenya. The Museveni-Ruto ‘handshake’ in Kisozi granted Uganda specific privileges to import and schedule its own products. Second, the Kisozi ‘Handshake’ helped Mr Odinga secure President Museveni’s vote for his 2025 AU bid.

Third, in Kisozi, President Ruto took the opportunity to win over President Museveni to his plan to sideline Mr Kenyatta in regional peace diplomacy, especially in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In his inauguration day on September 13, 2022, President Ruto named Mr Kenyatta as peace envoy to the Great Lakes Region. But wonks around Mr Kenyatta, who have had running local political differences with President Ruto, accuse the president of hobbling his mediation and stalling the Nairobi Process on the Democratic Republic of Congo under the East African Community.

President Ruto’s AU strategy is a divide and destroy the fledgling opposition. Mr Odinga’s race for the AU seat has effectively destroyed his alliance with Mr Kenyatta established during the last presidential contest. Opposition allies have accused Mr Odinga of failing to brief the Azimio leadership prior to going public with his AU plans. Mr Odinga kept the decision secret, perhaps suspecting Mr Kenyatta could go for the seat first.

President Ruto’s AU strategy is a response to growing dissent in Mount Kenya, which puts his 2027 re-election in dire jeopardy. In the run-up to 2027, President Ruto is cobbling an alternative source of vote to the restive and increasingly uncertain Mount Kenya region, which voted overwhelmingly for him in 2022. On 26 January, President Ruto watched in disbelief as Mount Kenya residents who had campaigned for him less than two years ago heckled and jeered at him over the high cost of living and taxes.

The ‘handshake’ with Mr Odinga is President Ruto’s long game to inherit Mr Odinga’s political kingdom and secure victory in 2027. United Democratic Alliance (UDA) wonks believe Ruto’s run for a second term could be easier with Mr Odinga abroad and possibly off the ballot. The president’s idea is wrest Nyanza, Western Kenya and other Mr Odinga strongholds. He has recently appointed Mr Odinga’s kith-and-kin and loyalists to diplomatic positions, and is likely to bring into the Cabinet after a looming reshuffle.

President Ruto’s deal with Mr Odinga has rattled a section of Mount Kenya UDA honchos who fear that the pact could maneuver the region out of the centre of power and even tilt national politics completely. Based on the impact of the Kenyatta-Odinga 2018 ‘handshake’ on the then Deputy President Ruto, it clear that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Mt Kenya’s topmost official in Kenya Kwanza government and the region’s de facto kingpin, is set to be the immediate direct casualty of the Ruto-Odinga détente. This is also fueling Mr Kenyatta’s return to the limelight of regional politics. President Ruto’s silent handshake with Mr Odinga has triggered the forceful return of ethnic politics to haunt the ‘class politics’ that swept President Ruto to power. “Why do you want us to choose this person (Mr Odinga) when our Mr Kenyatta is here?” Said Kiambu Senator Karungo Thang'awa. Mr Kenyatta has been mute about the matter. But Mr Gachagua has been under increasing pressure to back Mr Kenyatta.

But the impact of Mr Odinga’s seat on Mount Kenya politics is much ado about nothing. The seat will have negligible impact on the region. Unlike the High Representative for Infrastructure and Development job, the AU Commission’s Chairperson’s seat requires Mr Odinga to relocate to Addis Ababa and steer clear of internal Kenyan politics.

The game of politics is about the future, not about the past. The Ruto-Odinga ‘handshake’ is a wake-up call to organise ahead of 2027 or agonize in the future.

- Professor Peter Kagwanja is CEO of the Africa Policy Institute, Adjunct Professor University of Nairobi & Visiting Scholar at the National Defence University-Kenya.