Raila faces a classic ‘Simpatico trap’ in picking a running mate

“My country has in its wisdom contrived for me the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived.”

For a man of his vigour, intellect, ambition and vanity, John Adams’ lamentation to his wife Abigail about his frustrating experiences in his two terms as America’s first vice-president is understandable.

But the lamentation of the man who succeeded his boss, George Washington, as the second President of the United States (1797-1801) belies the hidden powers of number-twos in political systems.

The potential of presidential deputies for good and for evil, especially during critical transition moments, has remained a subject of continuing curiosity for political thinkers.

Six months to the August 9, 2022 General Election, the race to pick running-mates is a make-or-break business.

All things being equal, the presidential nominee for Azimio la Umoja Movement, Mr Raila Odinga, is the man to beat.

So far, he has cleared the five fundamental hurdles to the Kenyan presidency. These include serving as prime minister (Jomo Kenyatta); vice-president (Daniel arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki); leader of opposition (Moi, Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta); presidential candidate in previous elections (Kibaki and Uhuru) and evidently growing popularity (Kibaki and Uhuru).

Despite his steadily growing popularity (from 667,886 (10.79 per cent) in 1997 to 4,352,993 (44.1 per cent) in 2007 and to 6,822,812 (44.9 per cent) in the August 2017, Mr Odinga faces a classic ‘simpatico trap’ in picking his running mate.

The concept of ‘simpatico trap’ in choosing running-mates has been popularised by Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin, in her widely read opinion piece, ‘Joe Biden’s “simpatico” trap’ (July 31, 2020).

Simply put, simpatico means a person who is likeable and easy to get along with or one with whom you share qualities or compatible interests. Election victories should not give rise to divided presidencies and endless political nightmares.

Rubin’s piece underscores the axial role nostalgia can play in choosing a running mate. Unlike Adams, President Joe Biden had fond memories of his close relationship with President Barack Obama, whom he served for eight years as No.2.

As candidate, Biden declared that he was looking for a running-mate who is “simpatico with me, both in terms of personality as well as substance”. He picked Kamala D. Harris, a woman of mixed race, trust, ability, candour and respect as his simpatico second-in-command.

Obviously, a good choice of a running-mate may not radically change the fortunes of a candidate. But a bad choice can be a poisoned chalice, inflicting serious damage and becoming an excruciating pain and even a disruptive force. A popularly elected presidency can be marred by personality clashes, mistrust, corrupt and weak assistant and even untamed ambition.

Not surprisingly, analysts speak of Kenya’s number-two seat as ‘jinxed’, based on reviews of the past 10 occupants of the coveted slot.

Mr Odinga has to avoid the “Deputy Trap” that bedevilled the Uhuru Kenyatta presidency. We learn that far from being forged in the corridors of the Senate or in the furnace of presidential campaign as rivals-turned-friends, Biden’s bond with Obama grew progressively as the duo worked in Washington.

Fundamental disagreements

Similarly, the Kenyatta-Ruto détente in 2013 was forged in the flickering fire of the International Criminal Court (ICC), not the trenches of Uhuru’s 2002 presidential campaign. This explains the fundamental disagreements over corruption, national unity and key appointments.

In choosing a deputy, Raila has to master the art of balancing four imperatives of succession politics in Kenya. First, he has to come to terms with the fact that Kenya’s 2010 Constitution created a ‘New Deputy Presidency’ as the second-highest political office in the land with immunities and immense hidden powers.

Like the vice-president’s slot it replaced, Kenya’s new number two deputises the president in executive functions as his principal assistant. But unlike the vice-president, the Deputy President cannot hold any other state or public office or Cabinet ministry. Despite this, Kenya’s enhanced second-in-command has immense powers and immunities, which derive from the elections. The DP is elected on a joint ticket with the president.

The new constitution took away the presidential powers to hire and fire deputies, who can now be only removed by Senate on two grounds: impeachment and incapacity. Arguably, an enhanced deputy presidency with tenure of office and potentially explosive process of removing the holder creates something akin to a second centre of power in what should be ‘an integrated presidency’.

Experience over the past nine years reveals that the enhanced second-in-command can eclipse a hands-off or weak president. Kenya’s enhanced deputy presidency calls to mind Stanley Baldwin’s famous quote: “Power without responsibility (has been) the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages.” A rogue deputy can become an dangerous mongrel, at once wielding powers as the second-in-command and a potent opposition to the government from within.

This means Raila has to cast his net wider beyond the search for a pliable and easy-to-go-with deputy. The late president of Tanzania, John P. Magufuli did not go for a simpatico deputy. He went for a Zanzibari in line with the dictates of his country’s constitution and for a woman with proven abilities and a loyal member of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) – Samia Suluhu Hassan.

In picking a running-mate, Raila must also take into account the need to bequeath to the nation a deputy president befitting a 21st century Kenyan leader. Raila turned 76 this January. He needs a capable, (inter)nationally recognised figure. When picking a deputy president, the presidential candidate is single-handedly choosing a possible president for the country. Upon the death of Magufuli in March 2021, Suluhu became Tanzania’s sixth president. She has steered her country away from populism to a new progressive course.

Under Kenya’s current constitution, the deputy is an automatic successor to the President. Every presidential candidate has a solemn moral duty not to bequeath to the Republic and posterity the unbearable burden of a crank, an idiot or a charlatan as a president-in-waiting.

Prof Peter Kagwanja is a former Government Adviser and the Chief Executive of Africa Policy Institute (API)