For Kalonzo, the end is nigh; the triumvirate of Kivutha, Ngilu and Mutua will eclipse Wiper boss at Raila’s behest

A good leader has to intuit the way the currents of history are flowing so that he or she can ride them. This is what Otto von Bismarck, a great German statesman, meant when he said a leader “must wait until he hears the steps of God sounding through events, then leap up and grasp the hem of his garment”.

Inability to decipher the evolution of political history is best exemplified by an American general called Benedict Arnold.  The United States was a British colony when it was founded. 

Americans revolted against the Britons in the 18th century. Benedict had been an American military officer who served with distinction and rose to the rank of a major-general before defecting to the British. The British lost the war and hence his decision to defect proved unwise.

Kalonzo Musyoka seems to be Kenya's version of Benedict Arnold. Kalonzo holds much influence over the Kamba and hence he deserves respect and admiration. However, his political moves remain problematic for the following reasons.

Kalonzo joined Azimio after Raila offered him the Number Three slot of a chief minister. History suggests it is an unwise move. After the 2008 elections, Kibaki offered Kalonzo deputy president post ostensibly on the understanding that Kibaki and his mountain political base would rally behind him in 2013.

Kibaki trick

This did not happen and chances of Raila repeating the Kibaki trick are high. Further, history shows when Uhuru and Ruto crafted a deal in 2012 in the lead-up to the 2013 elections, Kalonzo was part of the political trio. In his autographical book titled Against All Odds, Kalonzo confirms he was approached by both Kenyatta and Ruto to create a formidable coalition that would take on ODM leader Raila Odinga. Uhuru and Ruto offered him the Number Three slot. He refused and reunited with Odinga. His new alliance with Odinga lost twice; in 2013 and 2017. Assuming Kalonzo did cold calculation and agreed in 2013 to the Number Three offer, he would be facing 2022 from a point of advantage and strength. He allowed emotions to take the better of him in 2013.

In 2022, he has now gone full circle and agreed to the Number Three slot in Azimio. Assume a scenario where Ruto wins, which in my view is the most probable outcome for August elections. Kalonzo would have been in the opposition for 15 years. Alfred Mutua would have positioned himself as the next emerging Kamba kingpin.

The second possible but improbable scenario is that of a Raila win. This choice is illogical in the first instance for Kalonzo for one basic reason. In 2013 and 2017, the successful Uhuru-Ruto alliance was basically a Kikuyu/Kalenjin axis with some small tribes rallying behind it.

Raila/Kalonzo axis was basically a Kamba/Luo/Luhya axis with some small tribes behind it. The Kikuyu/Kalenjin axis won twice.Ruto, a Kalenjin, has largely retained the Kikuyu bloc and extended, albeit in a small way, into Luhya nation and indeed polls have affirmed this. Under these circumstances, if Kalonzo really wanted to be in government as Number Three ‘by all means necessary' after 10 years in the cold, the most logical choice would have been to pivot into Ruto's camp for a decisive and sure victory. That would have spawned an undefeatable Kalenjin/Kikuyu/Kamba coalition. His decision to join Raila did nothing but maintain the 2013 and 2017 status quo of a largely Luo/Kamba Azimio coalition which lost twice. If this coalition did not deliver victory in 2013 and 2017, what makes Kalonzo think it will do magic come 2022, particularly noting it has shed a significant portion of the Luhya?

Gubernatorial post

For argument's sake, assume Azimio wins. Raila has already urged Kalonzo's mortal foe Ngilu not to defend her gubernatorial post in Kitui. This should have been a signal to Kalonzo that Raila ultimately intends to uplift Ngilu above him in case his side wins. Fellow Kamba luminaries like Prof Makau Mutua and Prof Kivutha Kibwana are also within the Azimio tent and can easily out-manoeuvre Kalonzo in Raila's Cabinet.

Raila comes across as a leader who cherishes personal loyalty. That explains his decision to give direct tickets to the majority of MPs in his Luo backyard. Raila seems to have read the biblical story of King David's son Absalom with keen interest. Absalom built support for himself by speaking to those who came to King David for justice, saying, “See, your claims are good and right; but there is no one deputed by the king to hear you. If only I were the King ..."

Absalom made gestures of flattery by kissing those who bowed before him instead of accepting supplication. He stole the hearts of the people of Israel. He stirred a rebellion against his father David.

 For Raila, there is no way he can allow an ambitious and handsome-looking Kalonzo to steal the hearts of Kenyans. Prof Makau /Kivutha / Ngilu will most likely checkmate Kalonzo and hence herald the end of his political career, at the subtle behest of Raila .

So whether Ruto or Raila wins, the end of Kalonzo seems nigh.

Dr Kang’ata teaches law at Catholic University of Eastern Africa and is the Murang’a senator. He is a former Senate Chief Whip.