Boundary review a powder keg that could burn all BBI bridges

Last week’s National Assembly vote for the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) could appear to be a major victory for President Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga and, by extension, a damaging defeat for Deputy President William Ruto but the situation is not as clear as it may seem.

The National Assembly okay for the Uhuru-Raila project is expected to be easily mirrored in the Senate, opening the way to constitutional changes that substantially alter the governance structure.

However, it does appear that the road to realisation of the BBI dream is littered with more and more broken bridges.

The latest fractures were seen in the run-up to the vote in Parliament when the hitherto united Raila camp witnessed sharp differences, culminating in the removal of Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo as vice-chairman of the National Assembly’s Justice and Legal Affairs Committee.

Mr Amollo and Senate Minority Leader James Orengo, who is also in trouble, are some of the sharpest minds in Mr Odinga’s ODM. They were charged with helping to steer the Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill 2020 through the respective Houses of Parliament, but along the way came to incur his wrath for taking the view that the document approved by a majority of county assemblies for referendum needs to be amended before proceeding to the next stage.

Questions might be asked why the two key lawyer-legislators in Mr Odinga’s court didn’t spot defects and seek cures in good time.

Insincerity

By raising the red flag after the Bill has been published, approved by MCAs and transmitted to Parliament, they opened themselves up to accusations of insincerity and, fatally for ODM legislators, of taking positions in concert with the anti-BBI elements grouped around the DP.

Whether Mr Amollo and Mr Orengo were in dereliction of duty or displaying treacherous  tendencies will be ventilated in coming days and weeks but nobody honest with himself can deny the fact that they raised pertinent issues. BBI contains many positives but is also loaded with provisions that may be impossible to implement or sure to raise constitutional gridlock.

Apart from the fine print of legal and constitutional technicalities, the Bill contains potentially explosive political minefields which, if not properly managed, could blow up the faces of its promoters.

Tricky issues

One of the tricky issues being pointed out is the proposed increase in the number of National Assembly constituencies. Apart from the constitutional issue of whether that ought to be the preserve of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, there is the also the matter of how the BBI identified the regions to get extra voter zones.

Perhaps the objections raised on that in Parliament arose directly from ‘own goals’ by President Kenyatta’s central Kenya minions when mobilising support for BBI. In public fora, TV and radio appearances, and other engagement, the men and women tapped to popularise BBI in the presidents decidedly lukewarm backyard played up the issue of the number of new constituencies slated for the populous region, and the attendant increase in resources under the ‘one man, one vote, one shilling’ mantra.

In doing so, they purposely pointed out other regions, such as Northeastern and Coast, that would not benefit as much.

They spoke on national platforms, not just addressing central Kenya audiences. That is what might have raised the antennae amongst groupings suspicious that even with the ‘Handshake’ and its equity and inclusivity promise, Mr Odinga was getting a raw deal as President Kenyatta directed the pork to his own region.

That probably prompted Orengo/Amollo type of questions. One can bet that, even after passage in the National Assembly and almost certain assent in Senate, these questions will amplify to a crescendo come the constituency boundaries review.

After conceding on the National Assembly outcome, where he witnessed betrayal from some of his more rabid supporters, particularly the central Kenya lot, the DP beat an advance tactical retreat on the Senate vote. One can be sure, however, that when it comes to stoking fires on the constituency boundaries, his will be the invisible hand holding the bellows.

In the interim, the DP doesn’t have to do much but simply laugh at the implosion in the Odinga camp. The problem is that he will also be realising that the noisy hordes in his corner are of suspect loyalties.

BBI broke Jubilee Party and split President Kenyatta’s Mt Kenya base and apparently is not sparing the inner circles of both DP Ruto and Raila Odinga.

[email protected] www.gaitho.co.ke @MachariaGaitho