Uhuru Kenyatta’s risky bet on backing Raila Odinga's presidential bid

President Uhuru Kenyatta has made the gamble of his life, and its outcome is almost sure to define his political legacy.

By openly declaring support for ODM leader Raila Odinga’s presidential candidacy in the August 9 General Election, he is likely to get caught up in the rigours and mudslinging of his succession, his Mt Kenya ground might be hostile, his legacy might be muddled by his deputy, trying to reassert his community leadership might backfire and the President may cement the project narrative as he campaigns for Mr Odinga.

 But on the other hand, a win for Mr Odinga would cement the President’s legacy and secure the political fate of his allies.

 At a meeting with the youth in State House, Nairobi, yesterday, the President openly drummed up support for an Azimio presidency, saying he would bring the whole country together under Mr Odinga. “Unless we find a way of accommodating each other and not having a few individuals running the government, we will not make any progress,” he said.

Over 3,000 young leaders attended the meeting, convened to review the progress of youth empowerment and affirmative action programmes.

 In Mombasa early this week, he warned those opposing him and Azimio La Umoja to prepare for a tough battle and even called out his deputy for politicking at a time when he had asked him to shelve his political ambition. The President is said to be getting ready for marathon political campaigns beginning late this month to ensure he hands over to “a leader who will push forward his development agenda”.

Risks

Political pundits and critics caution that his legacy is at stake, and attempting to hold onto political leadership even after relinquishing instruments of power could backfire.

"President Uhuru must not imagine that he is very popular in Central Kenya (his backyard) and that every voter in Central will listen to him and swallow all he says hook, line and sinker," says political commentator-cum-governance expert Javas Bigambo.

Losing to the DP Ruto led Kenya Kwanza side would naturally bring with it new alignments in his Central Kenya backyard, and possibly mark the emergence of a new regional kingpin loyal to DP Ruto. By choosing to stay on as Jubilee Party leader, the president hopes to continue calling the shots in the region, but whether he achieves this will depend on the next chief tenant at the House on the Hill.

Mr Bigambo cautions that the Head of State should prepare for some form of resentment in his bedrock, arguing that his hold on the region may have weakened as he stares at the lame duck leg of his presidency.

Using the upcoming tour of Mt Kenya to drum up support for the former Prime Minister, his erstwhile political rival, could work against him and the ODM boss. Critics argue it could reinforce the image of Mr Odinga as a state project, a political punch that DP Ruto, Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang’ula have used to hammer their biggest political opponent.

Being the sons of Kenya’s founding president and vice president, their political partnership is likely to give more ammunition to the DP, who has been keen to advance the dynasty narrative in reference to his competitors from politically prominent families.

Pundits also say campaigning openly for Mr Odinga could give the DP a chance to play the victim by painting himself as a self-made politician from a humble background, who understands the needs of the poor majority.

“What will he say to the voters in his political backyard? If he sells or endorses Raila, he risks confirming that he is a state project. He could do that indirectly by focusing on development projects,” said University of Nairobi don XN Iraki.

  DP Ruto and his allies have adopted a strategy to depict Azimio as having regrouped to bar him from ascending to power because of his economic mantra of elevating the status of those with little income. “I am competing with several powerful people who are currently very bitter with me saying I am inciting those at the lower cadre by telling them what they can get. That I should have kept quiet so that they can change the Constitution to create positions to share among themselves,” said DP Ruto in West Pokot last month.

Prof Iraki says the only way the Head of State can be safe from being caught at the centre of his succession undercurrents is by offering a level playground for the presidential contestants, but that comes with the risk of being seen as being non-committed to his political ‘handshake’ with Mr Odinga. “The best he can do is remain neutral, and let the two leading presidential contenders fend for themselves,” he argued.

In the event he overestimates his influence in Central and the larger Mt Kenya region, the President will occasion voter apathy that will work against his preferred pick, again putting him in a tricky corner. Since the 2018 political rapprochement, the President has preferred to back Mr Odinga from the sidelines to avoid infecting the curse of incumbency, but it appears this strategy has now been shelved.

Relations crisis

A win for DP Ruto would present Mr Kenyatta with a relations crisis. Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua, an ardent defender of DP Ruto, said any attempt to sell Mr Odinga will attract negativity against the President.

Murang'a Senator Irungu Kang'ata, who was fired as Senate Majority Whip last year for associating with the DP, says the anticipated campaign tour will be “inconsequential because people have already decided on how they will vote”.

Senator Kang’ata says the President does not scare DP Ruto’s supporters, arguing that the ground has shifted to favour his estranged deputy. “We’re only fearful of wastage of government resources in an endeavour to hoist a project known as Baba (Mr Odinga). We are fearful of what Baba can do with power. His Excellency’s decision will enable us to unveil Baba in his true colours—a state project,” he said.

Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru says the President “will be surprised that the mountain moved a long time ago and it’s solidly in the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).”

But for Uhuru men, the mountain is ready to listen to him.

“Anyone who imagines that the ground can be hostile to the President in favour of the DP clearly doesn’t understand Mt Kenya politics at all. This ground will listen to Uhuru because they have stood with him for 10 years. He’s now leaving office and there’s no one from our region getting into office,” said Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu.

“This means our region will be vulnerable and feel it. Uhuru is working on a structure to protect our interests within those circumstances. There’s absolutely no way we will not listen to him.”

Majority Leader in the National Assembly Amos Kimunya, who is also Kipipiri MP, says the DP has been on the ground alone since the 2017 election, but things are set to change when the kingpin tours the region.

“The ground has not shifted, there was only one player in the field, exciting everyone. Now people have choices and are evaluating, conscious of the need to continue and protect the President's projects,” he said.

United States International University’s Prof Macharia Munene is of the opinion that President Kenyatta has a way of getting residents of his political bastion to believe in him, hence his Central tour is likely to have a major impact on DP Ruto’s forays. “He will try, and largely succeed, to counter the perception that he might have lost touch with the 'ground'. He has a way with the people,” he said.

Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni says those who thought the President was politically spent are wrong. “He rarely removes his eye from the ball. He did not just wake up to politics the other day, he’s a schemer. He usually plays his cards close to his chest and once he identifies a course of action he will always follow it.”

Kieni MP Kanini Kega says UDA will eventually fade away in Mt Kenya. “Azimio La Umoja is gaining momentum. It’s a question of strategy and we have a proper road map,” he said.

Political analyst Ken Oluoch, who heads Moi University’s Political Science department, says no one should underestimate the President. “The stakes are high and he cannot afford to be passive, particularly with regard to Mt Kenya politics. He is likely to influence the voting pattern.”

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