Tough battle for Western in two by-elections
ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi (right) during campaigns for the party’s candidate in Matungu, Oscar Nabulindo, in Khalaba on March 1, 2021.
Political bigwigs are battling for the soul of Western, with the Thursday by-elections in Matungu and Kabuchai expected to be a litmus test for their popularity and a dress rehearsal for next year’s presidential election.
Deputy President William Ruto has put up a spirited fight to wrest the region from Orange democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila Odinga’s grip, and has fielded candidates in the two constituencies in Kakamega and Bungoma counties.
Western has more than two million votes spread across its four counties; with Kakamega having the largest number of votes at 743,736, Bungoma 559,850, Busia 351,048 and Vihiga 272,409. Trans Nzoia, located in the Rift Valley but with a high Luhya population, has 339,622 votes.
Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi and his Ford-Kenya counterpart Moses Wetang’ula, whom together with Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Gideon Moi (Kanu) have formed an informal coalition dubbed One Kenya Movement, are also making efforts to stamp their authority in the region which has overwhelmingly voted for Mr Odinga in the past elections. Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, Mr Odinga’s Deputy in ODM, has been camping in Matungu as he seeks to deliver the win.
ODM leader Raila Odinga in Matungu Constituency, Kakamega County, on February 27, 2021, where he campaigned for the party's candidate, David Were.
Dr Ruto, Mr Odinga and Mr Mudavadi have been camping in the region for a couple of months now with the ODM leader visiting Busia on Sunday, just a day after he campaigned in Matungu.
Political analyst Herman Manyora argues that, even though the two polls cannot be used as a yardstick for 2022, the results will have political impact on the individual leaders.
“The man who must be very careful about what goes on in these by elections is Mudavadi. He must approach this election cautiously because it will be worse if he loses despite their recent coalition with Wetang’ula, Kalonzo and Gideon Moi,” Mr Manyora said.
Should the ODM candidate in Matungu — Mr David Were — bag the seat, it will be a big blow for both Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula and a positive mark for Mr Oparanya whom ODM mandated to lead the campaigns in the area.
Delivering the seat, which belonged to ANC’s Justus Murunga who died last year, is likely to earn Mr Oparanya political points and puncture Mr Mudavadi’s ambitions.
Should Dr Ruto, however, win, “he shall have proved his impact across the country but should Mudavadi lose in Matungu, he has no business in politics and the 2022 presidential race.”
15 candidates
Dr Ruto, through the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), is rallying behind Mr Alex Lanya while Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula back ANC candidate Peter Nabulindo.
Murunga’s widow Christabel Amunga and son Eugene Murunga are also among the 15 candidates in the race to replace the deceased legislator. ANC deputy party leader Ayub Savula says the race is not about the people of Matungu but 2022 politics between Mr Mudavadi and Mr Oparanya.
“We want to show Oparanya that he can only play second fiddle to Mudavadi. That he is not his equal and our ammunition to destroy him is through this by-election,” Mr Savula told Nation.
Mr Oparanya’s political profile, he noted, will go down “just as in Msambweni where (Hassan) Joho was left with egg on his face after ODM lost.” Dr Ruto, he said, will also be shown that for him to penetrate the region he must work with Mr Mudavadi.
In Kabuchai, which has attracted eight aspirants, both ODM and ANC have not fielded candidates and the battle remains between Dr Ruto’s man, Mr Evans Kakai and Ford Kenya’s Majimbo Kalasinga. Mr Kalasinga enjoys the support of Mr Wetang’ula, Mr Mudavadi, Mr Musyoka and Mr Moi.
Dr Ruto’s de-facto spokesperson Caleb Kositany said they had deployed two teams in Matungu and Kabuchai to drum up support for their candidates.
“I am leading the team in Kabuchai and we are confident we are winning this,” Mr Kositany said.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) announced that yesterday was the last day for the campaigns.
Last evening, candidates were involved in door-to-door campaigns in last-minute rush to win the support of the voters. ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna said they had covered every inch of the constituency.
