Mini polls show political minefields Raila and Ruto have to overcome

The recent by-elections have exposed the weaknesses of Deputy President William Ruto and ODM boss Raila Odinga as they craft coalitions and woo voters ahead of the 2022 General Election.

The by-elections have shown that both leaders are vulnerable to cannibalisation from small parties, they need to build broader coalitions and the formations they are currently pursuing may not get them the numbers to occupy State House and get a parliamentary majority to rule.

Although the DP's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) floored Chama Cha Kazi (CCK) of Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria during Kiagu ward by-election in Meru County yesterday, the two were embroiled in a neck-to-neck competition.

UDA's candidate Simon Kiambi garnered 2,440 votes while Moses Kuria CCK's aspirant came a close second with 1,823 votes. This is despite the fact that CCK had been struck out of the election by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) before being restored. 

Mr Kuria is in Dubai for surgery and did not step in Meru for campaigns. UDA and Chama Cha Kazi put in a spirited campaign that was well-resourced with Meru Senator Mithika Linturi and Imenti Central MP Moses Kirima spearheading the UDA vote-hunt. Mr Kuria was quick to point out that his party, which was registered in August, had given UDA a run for their money.

“…You have demonstrated that we are not a regional party, an ethnic party nor a small party.  We deserve respect or in the absence of which the least we request is less kiburi (sic) and less madharau (sic)…” Mr Kuria said in a Facebook post.

Parties associated with Mr Kuria have won in Juja parliamentary seat by-election, Gaturi by-election in Murangá and played a vital role in Kiambaa parliamentary seat win by withdrawing his candidate to support UDA.

This means that Ruto, who has been on record saying that he is not ready for a coalition with what he describes as ‘tribal parties’, is likely to be the main casualty in case he continues with his hard stance into the next year’s poll, more so in Mt Kenya where there dozens of smaller parties.

“Let us all rally behind solid political parties that are centred on the issues of the people,” he told a delegation from Samburu and Kajiado counties this week.

Dr Ruto is now facing imminent threat from the small parties whose performance in by-elections is something which should worry leaders of big parties likes Jubilee, ODM and UDA.

Mr Kuria recently warned that a decision by the UDA or any other party to look down upon a coalition will have a heavy repercussion, which is likely to be injurious to their State House quest.

“We have been in politics for a long time and they will be taught a lesson by the electorate for arrogance, hubris. Let them not think that they have achieved it and it will be a painful lesson for them,” Mr Kuria told the Nation.

Among the political parties that are fighting for spoils with UDA in the mountain include Chama Cha Kazi, William Kabogo’s Tijibebe Wakenya Party, Martha Karua’s Narc Kenya, Mwangi Wa Iria’s Usawa kwa Wote, Mwangi Kiunjuri’s The Service Party, Kiraitu Murungi’s Devolution Empowerment Party as well as the traditional outfits like Jubilee Party, Democratic Party and Party of National Unity.

Jubilee party also yesterday won in Taita Taveta, after giving UDA a run for its money in Kiambaa and winning the Muguga by-election ward earlier this year. Jubilee Party’s Donald Fundi beat his rival from UDA Daniel Kimuyu in the hotly contested Mahoo ward, garnering 1,609 votes against Kimuyu’s 1,358.

For Mr Odinga, Jubilee’s mixed fortunes in the by-elections despite being held in areas where the party won in 2017 is an indicator that he cannot rely on the ruling party to get a substantial vote in Mt Kenya and Riftvalley, where the party dominated in 2017.

Mr Odinga’s ODM is currently in a coalition talk with Jubilee and will be forced to renegotiate with the party to accommodate various small outfits.

When Mr Odinga lost in Matungu by-election in March to Amani National Congress (ANC), it portrayed that ODM is losing grip of the region which has been voting for him overwhelmingly while his win in Bonchari in Kisii, was an indicator that the region that he split with Jubilee in 2017, may finally join the Azimio bandwagon. Already, senior Kisii leaders like Interior CS Fred Matiangí have thrown their weight behind the former PM.

Mr Odinga may have to thus get more western leaders in his fold or form a partnership with OKA to be assured of a sweep in the region.

University of Nairobi don XN Iraki argued that by-elections have shown that parties that will not conduct credible primaries will lose sets in their strongholds. Others will lose both votes and seats.

“The small parties are a threat because they are based on personalities and Kenyans seem to love strong personalities who are seen as fighters. They are also introducing unhealthy competition or cannibalising the big parties,” said Prof Iraki.

Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu yesterday said that Jubilee is ready to work with all like-minded parties and has learnt during the by-elections that cooperation with other parties works.

“They are only a threat to those who think they will lose by working with them. For us in Jubilee we are happy to work with all like-minded parties to make Kenya a better place,” said Mr Wambugu.

To increase their chances of outsmarting the DP, ODM secretary-general Edwin Sifuna had told the Nation earlier that Mr Odinga will not ignore those parties.

“Working with Mount Kenya parties will bolster our inroads in the region. They have their own strengths in the region which we want to leverage,” he said.

Murang’a Senator Irungu Kang’ata yesterday told the Nation that in case the big parties, which boast of having a huge following, fail to have attractive credentials, they risk being thrown out of the game as shown in the by-elections.

“But small parties have been a factor in all elections since 1992. Last Parliament produced several independent candidates like Governor Ndiritu Muriithi of Laikipia and Kirinyaga Senator Charles Kibiru. In 2013, Nyeri elected a small party Governor, the late Nderitu Gachagua. This is not a new phenomenon. Those in popular parties must have personal credentials,” said Senator Kang’ata.

Additional reporting by Lucy Mkanyika