Kenya Kwanza topples Azimio in popularity
UDA supporters during a rally in Nairobi on August 6, 2022, at Nyayo National Stadium. President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza has toppled Azimio la Umoja One Kenya as the most popular coalition, even as UDA opens a wide lead over ODM in popularity rating.
President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza has toppled Azimio la Umoja One Kenya as the most popular coalition, even as United Democratic Alliance (UDA) opens a wide lead over ODM in popularity rating.
A month to the August 9, 2022 elections, Azimio was the most popular coalition at 46 per cent compared to Kenya Kwanza (36 per cent) but in a March survey, the ruling coalition has surged to 49 per cent with Azimio dropping to 40 per cent.
This is according to the house-based Tifa polls conducted between March 11 and 19 that included some 2,065 randomly selected respondents across the country.
Poll outcome
Also, nearly half of the respondents, 48 per cent, believe President William Ruto won the presidential elections compared to 37 per cent who doubt Dr Ruto’s victory over his main rival, Mr Raila Odinga, who has disputed the poll outcome.
Although an overwhelming majority (75 per cent) of those who voted for President Ruto believe he won, it’s worrying that a quarter of his supporters (12 per cent don’t believe he won and 14 per cent are unsure) aren’t convinced about their victory.
“The fact that a quarter of declared Ruto voters are not convinced that he was actually victorious adds weight to doubts expressed about the integrity of the declared official results,” the survey states.
Only 14 per cent of Mr Odinga’s supporters believe Dr Ruto won the election compared to 71 per cent who still doubt President Ruto’s victory. The remaining 15 per cent are not sure whether Mr Odinga won the election.
“Similarly, the fact that about the same proportion of those who voted for Odinga are not convinced that he won indicates that the Azimio claims that his election was “stolen” have not yet been entirely convincing even among the supporters,” the poll stated.
UDA party, the poll states, is by far the most popular political party currently, and this is reflected by its majority status in both the National Assembly and the Senate, as well as the presence of its leader, President William Ruto, in State House.
ODM party comes a distant second at 28 per cent, Jubilee third at five per cent, Wiper party follows at two per cent, Roots Party, Kanu, Ford-Kenya, DAP-Kenya and ANC come joint fifth with one per cent each.
Across the country, UDA is strongest in Central Rift and Mt Kenya, at 71 per cent and 69 per cent respectively. ODM only has seven and eight per cent in the two regions.
Interestingly, the support for UDA in Northern Kenya has taken a sharp turn with UDA enjoying massive support at 42 per cent compared to ODM’s popularity at 20 per cent. In late July last year, ODM and Jubilee Party combined were more popular in the region with 51 per cent compared to UDA’s 31 per cent. The ruling party is also currently the most popular in Western Kenya at 32 per cent compared to ODM's 25 per cent.
Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party supporters cheer during a rally in Kirigiti Stadium, Kiambu, Kenya on August 1, 2022.
ODM remains the most popular party in Nairobi 39 per cent against UDA’s 32 per cent, Coast (37) compared to UDA’s 28 per cent, Lower Eastern 35 per cent compared to UDA’s 28 per cent, South Rift (47) against UDA’s 26 per cent and Nyanza at 63 per cent compared to UDA’s 23 per cent.
“As for ODM, aside from Nyanza and South Rift, in the other four zones where it remains the most popular party, UDA is nipping at its heels,” the survey shows.
UDA support increase
Since the August polls, UDA’s support has increased from 38 per cent to 45 per cent and a slight drop for the ODM party from 32 per cent to 29 per cent.
“Whether the current effort by its leaders to absorb the smaller parties that joined it within the Kenya Kenya Kwanza coalition will result in its further growth remains to be seen,” the survey stated.
Jubilee party, which was the most popular party in mid-2020 at 40 per cent, has lost its support over the past two and a half years and now only has a five per cent popularity.
Among all Kenyans, a slight majority, 52 per cent, support the idea that Opposition MPs should work with the Kenya Kwanza government in order to bring development to their constituents rather than “remain strong” in the Opposition. Only 41 per cent believe that the MPs in the Opposition should remain strong and loyal to Azimio in order to protect multi-party democracy and to try to keep the government in check.
The survey also showed that 59 per cent of Kenyans with a Kenya Kwanza MP support the idea of the Opposition MPs working with the government of the day compared to 45 per cent of those with Azimio MPs who hold the same opinion.
Only 36 per cent of Kenyans believe that former President Uhuru Kenyatta should remain active in politics with a whopping 59 per cent against the idea.
As it is, majority of Kenya Kwanza supporters, 70 per cent believe Mr Kenyatta should avoid politics and enjoy his retirement while 51 per cent of Azimio supporters, including Azimio’s supporters in Nyanza and Lower Eastern, saying the former President should remain actively in politics,
