DP Rigathi Gachagua’s options after Ruto, Raila truce

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has found himself in a precarious position following the recent camaraderie between President William Ruto and Azimio leader Raila Odinga.

The renewed ties between the two political protagonists—which some analysts say signals an impending ‘handshake’—   follows Mr Odinga’s bid for the position of chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC).

 However, the quest has put Mr Gachagua, the country’s second in command, in a political quagmire, owing to his tough stance against any possible working arrangement between the Kenya Kwanza administration and Mr Odinga, leaving him with limited options.

The DP has to either join the President in backing Mr Odinga’s continental bid but tell his supporters it is part of a strategy to eclipse Mr Odinga from local politics, keep off the debate totally, bite the bullet and openly oppose the government’s position, or do the unthinkable and resign.

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 The situation appears to also shine a spotlight on the Kenya Kwanza Mt Kenya leaders who seem to be reading from different scripts as the Deputy President (DP), known for his straight talk, has yet to comment on the recent meeting between Dr Ruto, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Mr Odinga.

 Coming against the backdrop of his previous warnings, the DP indicated he had planned spies at State House to ensure Mr Odinga did not make any moves to have a secret pact with his boss, recalling the latter’s engagements with the previous three presidents. “There are some of our youthful politicians who are being used to divide us. The moment we agree to be divided, that will be the end of us,” the DP said at Embu Kenya Agricultural, Livestock and Research Organisation.

“Because of our unity, we have Cabinet secretaries and other senior officials in the government. We are also receiving tangible development and I shall not allow even a single person to divide us.”

 The firebrand politician has graced a number of events, including the launch of the 2023 tea sector report, after the Uganda meeting but uncharacteristically remained tight-lipped.

 He asked how the region would agitate for the promotion of tea, coffee and miraa farming if residents do not work together. “If we give in to divisions being created, no development will take place and we shall be doomed.”

 National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichug’wah, a Ruto ally, also maintained that Mr Odinga is a Kenyan candidate and his bid has nothing to do with joining the government.

Read:  Ruto to formally unveil Raila Odinga’s AU candidature

 “Raila is a Kenyan. Just like we unite to cheer and support our athletes, Raila is competing against others on the continent to clinch the AUC chairperson seat and it’s Kenya’s chance,” explained Ichung’wah.

“Local political differences aside, he is not joining the government. We are simply supporting our own. We did the same for former Cabinet Secretary (CS) Amina Mohammed.”

Gatundu South MP Gabriel Kagombe also revealed that as Kenya Kwanza leaders from central Kenya, they have met and endorsed Mr Odinga’s AUC bid.  “We are all aware that the President has endorsed Raila’s candidature. This is the position of the government. Our internal differences aside, local politics will not be played on the continental stage,” he stated.

 “We have no problem with Mr Odinga flying our flag at the AUC and the DP is aligned. There is no belonging to different sides.”

‘Shortchanged’

 However, Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba differed.  “Mt Kenya leaders campaigned for Ruto. We did not vote to accommodate Raila in government and give him a continental job. Githunguri people feel shortchanged. Why not support one of their own, if it is a Kenyan’s chance?”  she said.

Mr Gachagua has repeatedly ridiculed the former premier even for the sitting arrangement at state events, where he is accorded head of state status, yet he is not entitled. He cited the Africa Climate Summit meeting held in Nairobi last year. As things stand, the ball is now in the DP’s court as political observers say it may be a tall order for him to join the President openly in advocating Mr Odinga’s course “as this could disrupt his political bastion”.

Yesterday, Mr Gachagua, without discussing the Odinga issue, declared that he would not allow anyone to divide Mt Kenya region. Should he endorse the ODM leader’s bid, analysts say he could choose to spin it as a well-thought-out strategy to remove a disruptive ‘Mtu ya Kitendawili’ from the local political scene and not as a ‘handshake’.

Should he decide to oppose the government support for Mr Odinga, he will have adopted the Ruto playbook against former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

 Dr Ruto, then Deputy President, strongly opposed the March 9, 2018 handshake between the former President and Mr Odinga. But unlike Dr Ruto, Mr Gachagua seems to lack the political stamina to face a regime in its first term.

Read: Kenya Kwanza MPs endorse Raila Odinga’s quest for top AU seat

ODM national treasurer Timothy Bosire says, “Given the view he (Mr Gachagua) has on Raila and the opposition leadership, going forward will be quite a challenge for him, especially on how he will fit in the unfolding circumstances.

“He is likely to adjust from his previous position, but it might not be easy because he took extreme positions and this might cost him politically.

“His conduct and behaviour did not measure the expectations of Kenyans. He balkanised the country with his famous “shares” phrase, thus his conduct has not endeared him to Kenyans. He has no options because he is not principled to resign. This would be uncharted territory for him.”

The DP has been the most vocal critic of Mr Odinga and Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition since Kenya Kwanza won the elections in 2022. Other than calling for the political decimation of Mr Odinga, especially during the protests held last year, he has declared it his sole duty to “protect” Dr Ruto from being “confused or misled” by the opposition chief into a ‘handshake.’ Handshake refers to the political truce reached between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga on March 9, 2018, that ended weeks of violent protests following the disputed 2017 presidential elections.

State House ‘spies’

Mr Gachagua had even comically asserted that he would stand guard at State House and plant spies to report to him whenever he was away. “Hiyo ikulu nimeweka mtego kila kona, kila pahali na niko na watu wakunipigia simu. Akionekana tu karibu, naambiwa kwa sababu huwezi mkubalia mtu ameharibu serikali nne akuje ya tano, si ataharibu? (I have mounted traps at every corner and everywhere in the State House and I have people there to call me if he is seen around because we cannot allow someone who has unsettled five governments to join the fifth; will he not disrupt it?),” he said in the past.

 The DP has been leading a pack of Mt Kenya leaders to portray Mr Odinga as being responsible for the ills of the Kenyatta administration because of the ‘handshake’. The region, as “sharehoders,” had also been promised goodies that those who voted against Kenya Kwanza would only dream of, he said.

Restive backyard

Mr Gachagua was even forced to put together a presidential tour to calm the restive region that there would be no ‘handshake,’ following a meeting between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga in the presence of former Nigeria president Olusegun Obasanjo that ended weeks of anti-government protests. It is after the meeting that the two leaders agreed to form the National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) whose report the DP has dismissed as a waste of time.

 Now, things seem to have come full circle after what appears to be a ‘truce’ between the Head of State and Mr Odinga, with the AUC leadership at the centre of it.

The DP now finds himself in an awkward position with the tough task of reassuring his base that there was no deal between his boss and the opposition chief.

 Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations at United States International University (USIU), says that whatever is happening in the country between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga is a “clear handshake”.

 “The handshake deal was cut in Mombasa a long time ago, with (Olusegun) Obasanjo supervising. The rest are procedural matters,” Prof Munene says, adding that it could be the Deputy President’s waterloo.

Read: What Ndindi Nyoro should learn from Tom Mboya’s ambitions

  “Only Gachagua appears to be lost in the whole political power play,” Prof Munene says.

 Speaking in Homa Bay town on Tuesday, Dr Ruto made the clearest indication yet that he would work with Mr Odinga.

 “There is space for all of us in Kenya; you do not win by making others lose. We want a win-win outcome for all of us,” he asserted.

Public Service CS Moses Kuria argues that it is the responsibility of the government to back Mr Odinga’s candidature.

 “Raila is not a Ugandan or Tanzanian; he is a Kenyan and as a government we support him. He is a government candidate. A member state must endorse your candidature in that contest,” says the CS.

 Dr Ruto’s support for Mr Odinga’ candidature for the AUC chairperson post derives similarities to his predecessor’s famous handshake and could jolt Mr Gachagua.

 Although Dr Ruto, then Deputy President strongly opposed the March 9, 2018 handshake between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga, the recent happenings after a secret Mombasa meeting between him and the ODM leader that led to the formation of Nadco and the contest for the AUC top job, point to a handshake.

 Dr Ruto and his allies have publicly opposed another handshake with Mr Odinga. However, the only missing link is the shaking of hands in public.

While Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga’s deal was the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) derived from their nine-point agenda, the latter was also appointed the Africa Union High Representative for Infrastructure.

 Under Ruto’s administration, Mr Odinga got the Nadco report that addressing salient issues, including electoral justice and support for his AUC chairperson’s candidature.

  Even though he has reiterated that there will be no handshake with the opposition during his tenure, Dr Ruto’s recent visit to Uganda clearly depicts their camaraderie.

 Dr Ruto also appears to have rolled out a red carpet for Mr Odinga, allowing members of his Cabinet to brief him on “issues of national importance,” just as they did during the last administration, a move that Mr Gachagua may not be comfortable with.

Jumwa meeting

On Tuesday, just a day after the Uganda visit, Gender Affairs Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa was hosted by Mr Odinga at his Capitol Hill office in Nairobi together with the multi-sectoral working group on two-thirds gender rule.

“This is a clear indication of a working arrangement that has since begun and we should expect more,” a source in Mr Odinga’s camp disclosed.

Read: Capitol Hill office visits: A new centre of power in the making

 Implementation of the two-thirds gender principle was one of the major items during Nadco deliberations by Dr Ruto’s and Mr Odinga’s teams.

 Later, Housing Principal Secretary Charles Hinga also held a meeting with Mr Odinga.

  The meetings are akin to those witnessed during Mr Kenyatta’s reign when Mr Odinga’s events were even attended by senior members of the Executive.

 A fortnight ago, Mr Obasanjo revealed how he brokered dialogue between Dr Ruto’s and Mr Odinga’s camps that ended weeks of anti-government protests.

 Flanked by Mr Odinga, Mr Obasanjo, who also vouched for the ODM leader to be the AUC Commission chair next year, said he brokered the deal in Mombasa in July last year.

 Speaking moments before he met with Dr Ruto, Mr Obasanjo said he was glad that Nadco had done a good job.

 “Not too long ago, I was here with President Ruto and Raila and we went to Mombasa and the outcome of that exercise was five members each from the two parties to form a committee,” Mr Obasanjo said, referring to the Nadco team.

‘Deal’

Prof Munene, argues that it was during the Mombasa meeting that a deal between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga was inked.

 “Roping in Museveni is a Ruto-Raila achievement and Ruto should get credit for charming Museveni into being reasonable. Aisha Jumwa reporting to Raila is a Ruto way of uplifting Raila’s sense of political ‘arrival’, to DP Gachagua’s chagrin,” adds Prof Munene.

 It is worth noting that Mr Odinga’s relationship with the former president alienated him from his deputy (now president), and Kenyans will now be turning their focus to DP Gachagua on his next political course of action.

 “Only Gachagua appears to be lost in the whole political power play,” Prof Munene says.