Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua's power within Kenya Kwanza is likely to wane following Raila Odinga's entry into the administration.
The new political power balance following the truce between President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga is likely to whittle Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s influence in Kenya Kwanza administration.
Having swept him to power, Mt Kenya region has for close to two years remained a critical plank in Dr Ruto’s administration, with Mr Gachagua wielding immense sway as its senior-most representative in government.
But this is likely to change radically following the entry of Mr Odinga to Kenya Kwanza administration through the formation of a broad-based government. Mr Gachagua is also exposed, having no political party of his own.
At the height of the political fallout in Jubilee Party, then President Uhuru Kenyatta kicked his deputy, Dr Ruto, out of the outfit, forcing him to form a new outfit for purposes of the 2027 race.
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and opposition leader Raila Odinga.
“It was a big mistake for Mt Kenya to enter a political arrangement with President Ruto without first forming a political party. It is like getting into an exam room without a pen. They cannot negotiate for anything within United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Even in the IEBC selection, the region did not have a say,” said Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni.
He claimed that after realising the mistake, some of the UDA members from the region tried to take over the former ruling party as an option in the event of a fallout within UDA.
Analysts believe that Mr Odinga has been brought in to bring his western belt vote as a possible replacement of Mt Kenya vote should Mr Gachagua try to lead away the region from Dr Ruto’s UDA ahead of 2027 polls. Dr Ruto has since hinted at a possible coalition agreement with Mr Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Election data shows that the 10 Mt Kenya counties and the seven from the North Rift collectively handed Dr Ruto 4.5 million votes, which translated to 63 percent of his total votes.
Laikipia, Tharaka-Nithi, Murang’a, Kiambu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Embu, Meru and Nakuru collectively gave Dr Ruto nearly three million votes. With 2,938, 309 votes from the 10 Mt Kenya counties, Dr Ruto topped up with 1.6 million votes from seven North Rift counties.
Seen beholden to the populous region, when he assumed office in September 2022, President Ruto equally gave back through plum appointments, among them Cabinet Secretaries (CSs) and Principal Secretaries (PSs).
But the nationwide youth protests and close to two years of power struggle within the presidency pushed Dr Ruto to bring Mr Odinga on board. Five of Mr Odinga’s close allies have since been appointed to the Cabinet with more likely to be considered for PS positions.
“Mt Kenya has been a ruggedly independent electorate. I don't see a capitulation of the Mt Kenya region. I'd see the mountain move to make alternative political alliances. Possibly with western but also looking to break the Rift Valley voting bloc and bagging Kalonzo,” said Prof David Monda, a political analyst and university lecturer.
“I also don't see DP Gachagua's ego accepting Raila into what he sees as a "shareholder" government where Raila ostensibly has no shares. He sees Raila as a backdoor bullyboy. A Johnny-come-lately player. An unwelcome camel in the Kenya Kwanza tent.
Gen Z factor
Where the Gen Z will go is another unknown potential game changer. Kenyan politics is about waves. He might peak in 2027. Especially if 2027 becomes a critical juncture in Kenyan politics and a generational shift from the old guard ethno-political godfathers to a new generation of idealistic university-educated youth,” explains Prof Monda.
Some of Mr Gachagua’s critics have blamed him for occasioning the formation of a broad-based government through his alleged political blackmail.
Sacked CS Moses Kuria directly blamed Mr Gachagua for the recent Cabinet changes.
"Raila Odinga's people ended up in Ruto's new Cabinet as a result of political miscalculations and unnecessary infighting amongst us from Mt Kenya region. We shot ourselves in the foot," stated Mr Kuria recently.
“Before President William Ruto reshuffled the cabinet, Deputy President Gachagua openly criticised and attacked cabinet secretaries from the Mt Kenya region and that is how we ended up out of government," explained Kuria. According to the former CS, Mt Kenya got a raw deal after the cabinet reshuffle.
"I am now a jobless person... When the reshuffle happened recently, we saw others bringing in their superstars like Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, and John Mbadi. But those from our region were replaced with individuals whose credentials are unclear. Even when you visit the encyclopedia you cannot find them there," he lamented.
Laikipia East MP and Kenya Kwanza Principal, Mwangi Kiunjuri, has also blamed Mr Gachagua for the changes in government. He suggested that the region could end up being sidelined as a result of the entry of Mr Odinga.
"We sent someone to the dining table who commenced crying for more even when his mouth was full of food, hence portraying us as a greedy lot hard to please," Mr Kiunjuri said.
During President Ruto’s four-day tour, National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah, a close ally of the President, openly attacked the DP for blackmailing the Head of State even with the region having majority members in the Cabinet.
“You are a great people who have gratitude. You have been given two Cabinet Secretaries (CSs) positions in government and you have shown gratitude. What about us who have not less than seven CSs and a Deputy President, we should be at the forefront of showing gratitude and supporting your government, not sabotaging your government, not blackmailing you Mr President,” said Mr Ichungwa’h.
Mr Ichungwa’h and other Mt Kenya MPs critical of Mr Gachagua have in the past openly accused Mr Gachagua of blackmailing the President.
“I want to assure you that just like the people of Nyanza support your government, the people of Mt Kenya, the people of Rift Valley, the people of coast, the people of northern Kenya, we will support your government without blackmail, without sabotage,” he said.
Divide and rule
Mr Gachagua claimed in May that there is a plot to divide the region, saying Mt Kenya has been infiltrated by traitors who are on a mission to bring division among the people and that they risk being shortchanged if they do not unite.
He complained of how several leaders he helped get elected during the last polls have now turned their backs on him and are plotting his downfall, warning them of a political tsunami come 2027 should they not rally around him.
“I am not too clever, and neither am I a fool, there is something I know and when I look keenly, wake up early and look, I see darkness, I see someone plotting against us, and our children being used to divide us,” said the DP.
In recent days, DP Gachagua has sought the support of retired President Uhuru Kenyatta in uniting the Mt Kenya region with an eye on the 2027 elections.
The leaders have, however, maintained they will not succumb to the political threats and will remain behind President Ruto.
Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga has repeatedly said by virtue of his position, Mr Gachagua is the senior-most leader of the vote-rich region and hence the region’s undisputed king, and therefore, he should not be taken lightly.
“The three million voters of the Mount Kenya region are quietly watching the unfolding political scenario, which is becoming increasingly clear that it is designed to undermine Mr Gachagua. But we want to assure them that when the time comes, we will make our position on the matter known,” said Mr Kahiga at one time.
