High goat meat prices, fares slow down cost of living fall

A high demand for meat delicacies in the festive season and the rush by Kenyans to reunite with family in rural areas stymied what would have been a major drop in inflation in December due to good rains and lower fuel prices.

The latest report from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) on inflation — a measure of the cost of living over a 12-month period— shows that even with the El Nino rains which resulted into better pasture for livestock, prices of beef and mutton rose, pointing to festivity-driven demand which outstripped the increased supply.

The KNBS data, which shows that inflation dropped to a 20-month low of 6.6 percent in December, indicates that a kilogramme of mutton, or sheep meat, increased by 18.4 percent to retail at an average of Sh730.17 in the review month compared to Sh616.48 in December last year.

Month-on-month, a kilo of goat meat rose by 5.1 percent from Sh694.77 in November, an indicator of increased demand as Kenyans continue with their longstanding tradition of eating nyama choma.

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Roasted goat meat is a popular delicacy among Kenyans during the festive season, with a spot check by the Daily Nation showing that as early as last month people had started buying goats for the festivities.

There might also have been copious consumption of beef, whether roasted or prepared in other ways, in the review month. A kilo of beef with bones increased by 14.4 percent to retail at Sh603.51 compared to Sh527.63 in December last year.

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Month-on-month, a kilo of beef with bones rose by 3.6 percent from Sh582.63 in November.

Despite the month-on-month drop in fuel prices —a litre of Petrol from an average of Sh217.97 in November to Sh212.97 in December and Diesel from Sh204.21 to Sh202.21, respectively— bus fares soared as Kenyans in urban areas flocked to their rural homes.

A ticket from Nairobi, to Siaya County, rose by 58.3 percent to Sh1,900 in December from Sh1,200 in November.

“Despite a drop in the prices of petrol and diesel by 2.3 percent and one percent, respectively, between November 2023 and December 2023, the Transport Index went up by 0.5 percent during the period, mainly due to increase in the country bus fares for some routes,” said KNBS Director-General MacDonald Obudho.  

Inflation has dropped to levels last seen in April 2022 when it was at 6.47 percent.

This means that inflation has for six months remained anchored within the Central Bank of Kenya’s target of between 2.5 and 7.5 percent.

Inflation breached the CBK’s upper limit of 7.5 percent for 12 months to June this year, leading the regulator to aggressively try to stabilise price increase by tightening the supply of money.

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The main drivers of inflation were food and fuel, the former being induced by drought and  the latter by increased global prices as well as new tax measures such as the doubling of value added tax on petroleum products.

In November inflation was at 6.9 percent, having risen from 6.8 percent in the previous month. 

However, the December food inflation index rose by 0.3percent in the review period compared to an increase of 0.4 percent observed between October and November 2023. 

The price of a two-kilogramme packet of sifted maize flour —used in the preparation of the staple ugali— dropped by 14.9 percent to retail at an average of Sh155.07 from Sh182.14 in December last year.

Retail prices of fortified maize flour, loose maize grain and loose maize flour also dropped by 14.4 percent, 9.1 percent and eight percent respectively, the latest data from the national statistician shows.

Month-on-month, prices of most food items dropped, pointing to the impact of the El Nino rains in December.  However, Kenyans continued to grapple with higher prices of electricity.

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