Victory smiles upon holders of a long-term plan

Two thieves were crucified with Jesus Christ, one on the right and the other on the left.

One mocked Jesus, asking him to liberate them if indeed he was a messiah. The second one rebuked the first bandit. He held the view that unlike them, Jesus was innocent. He begged Jesus to remember him once he reached heaven. Jesus promised to do so. 

The first thief was playing the short game. He appeared motivated by jealousy and showmanship. He had nothing to gain by mocking Jesus. 

The second thief was playing the long game. He put his bet into a possible good future. He moved his emotions beyond petty jealousy and hedged for some future, which might work in his favour. 

That story illustrates cardinal differences in approach between how politicians practise the art of leadership. 

Some tend to look at the short term. Their lives revolve around the “self”. 

Others are more futuristic and hedge their bets on cooperating with others for some future gains.

Kindiki example

Take the example of Prof Kindiki Kithure. He had every reason to be mad with Dr William Ruto in 2022. Between 2013 and 2017, he served as the majority leader of the Senate. 

On winning re-election in 2017, Uhuru and Ruto persuaded him to downgrade to the deputy speaker’s slot. He agreed grudgingly. 

He stuck with Ruto during the Jubilee split and lost his deputy speaker seat as a result. 

He was persuaded not to defend his Tharaka Nithi senatorial seat, nor vie as a governor. 

He then sought the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) deputy presidency ticket and received a majority endorsement from Mt Kenya lawmakers. But Ruto picked Rigathi. 

Ordinarily, many would have been offended beyond repair under the set of circumstances. 

But Kindiki was wise enough to look at things from a wider perspective and agree to stick with Ruto and hedge into the future. 

His decision proved correct after he clinched the most powerful Cabinet slot. 

Assume he ranted and resigned from UDA or defected.

There is every likelihood UDA would have won in his absence. He would be full of regrets.

Kalonzo case

Compare him with Kalonzo Musyoka.

In 2013, a triangulate of Uhuru, Ruto and Kalonzo was formed. 

When Uhuru and Ruto picked the two big slots, Kalonzo defected in haste. He has never recovered from his decision to play the short game.

The same case applies to one Kariri Njama, a politician from Kiambaa. 

It was common knowledge that he was a popular politician in the constituency. 

He associated strongly with Tangatanga politics between 2017 and 2021.

When a by-election was declared after the death of area MP Koinange, everyone knew Kariri would win it. But he played the short game by defecting to Jubilee, a dying political party. He lost twice, first during the by-election and thereafter during the main elections. 

How can one play the long game and avoid political miscalculation?

Being a good student of political history is important. Through a keen analysis of history, one can decipher futuristic political trends. Nothing happens in this world which is completely new. That which appears new is nothing but incremental change. 

Take Kalonzo’s decision of 2013. He ought to have realised based on the 2007 Gema vote (then under Uhuru control) when combined with one large community (read Kalenjin) is lethal. 

Kariri should have learnt from history that a tribal political party rarely survives the exit of its tribal leader. 

Kibaki’s retirement in 2013 killed the Party of National Unity.

Jaramogi's death led to the exit of Luo from Ford-Kenya.

Dr Kang’ata is the Governor of Murang’a County.