DP William Ruto shouldn’t rely on Mt Kenya

Mr President, the Gema nation is waiting for your word; they are waiting for guidance on which way to go, and time is fast running out. Because it is not at all true that they always vote with their collective conscience or they are always right, they should not be left to flounder around like a headless chicken, for then they become easy prey to demagogues and tribal chieftains. They are confused whether to stick with the political party they supported in two elections, or whether to ditch it and join the new outfit that is promising them something new symbolised by the lowly wheelbarrow.

This confusion, which seems to be catching on fast, has left the people who traditionally inhabit the Mt Kenya region feeling vulnerable, which is not common for they too – like all other communities – have been herded into supporting “their man” to the hilt come shine come rain, and right now the alternative prospects on offer are weak and therefore not very attractive. 

Indeed, Jubilee is increasingly becoming moribund due to structural chaos, and its erstwhile organising principle based on the success of the Building Bridges Initiative has been dealt a major blow by court action.

Despite all the talk about the possibility of people of the mountain voting en masse for the party associated with Deputy President William Ruto, the United Democratic Alliance, (UDA) it is not happening. 

Even if it is true that this new party has won two by-elections in Kiambu County, the matter should be looked at in the light of near-universal disillusionment with Jubilee, seasoned with a potpourri of empty, hand-me-down economic policies preached by hubristic UDA foot soldiers.

Reality on the ground 

By the way, Kiambu, which is supposed to be the President’s “bedroom”, has been especially hit. After Jubilee lost two constituencies in one year to UDA and its affiliate, now it has gone and lost the woman representative seat and there are bound to be even more defections.

Nevertheless, it is totally untrue that UDA has grown roots in Mt Kenya. Shorn of the euphoria which always accompanies the birth of a new baby, nobody can claim the area has become UDA country. What is more likely is that the party has only a tiny fraction of very noisy fellows espousing its ideals, and the din precludes any deep reflection among voters.

So at the moment, the political elite opposed to Jubilee are mostly addressing themselves while the hoi polloi are becoming convinced that it is their issues being discussed. Nothing could be further from the truth. In short, Deputy President Ruto should not count the Mt Kenya vote as being in the bag until it happens. 

Discreet research indicates that support for the ‘Hustler Movement’ is too hyped and does not reflect the reality on the ground. There are a couple of reasons for this which should caution the DP not to be too sanguine on this matter. 

First, the Gema communities are extremely fickle when it comes to voting for anyone they don’t consider their own. That is a well-known fact, and although all other communities in Kenya also believe charity begins at home, when it comes to Kikuyus in particular, they too often go out of their way to prove they are, indeed, tribal chauvinists when it comes to presidential elections.

Landslide vote

Of course they are not the only ones afflicted with that particular sickness, but they are the majority voters and so what they say and do really matters. The multiplicity of new political vehicles already registered in Mt Kenya region only means that for the second time ever, their votes will be divided, thus denying the front-runners a clear run. The first was when Mr Uhuru Kenyatta vied for the position against former President Mwai Kibaki and was trounced back in 2002.

As ODM leader Raila Odinga would readily admit, this ultra-nationalism can really hurt. He too is fighting hard for the Mt Kenya vote and probably making inroads this time round, but for some reason, the people decamping to the UDA always cite his political dalliance with President Kenyatta as the reason for their disenchantment. 

As a result, even his most ardent admirers know that he can never win the hearts and souls of Gema to the extent of ensuring a landslide vote from the region. But he is trying. The music jamboree he presided over in Murang’a this week probably earned him a few more thousand votes which, to me, is a good thing. But will it be enough?

Now the crux of the matter: If, for whatever reason, the mountain people will not elect DP Ruto or Mr Odinga president next year, isn’t there a chance that a third force will be more acceptable and it should be propped up before time runs out?

In conversations with ordinary people, a number of names keep cropping up as viable alternatives. It would not be prudent to reveal the names here, but perhaps the thinkers around the presidency should consider a Plan B. Killing Jubilee through a thousand cuts is certainly not the answer Mt Kenya people are looking for. 

Mr Ngwiri is a consultant editor; [email protected]