Democracy idiots a threat to poll peace polls

Two newsroom colleagues visited their rural homes in Uasin Gishu and got to read the political mood in Deputy President William Ruto’s home county up close.

Both were struck by the entrenched perceptions there that Dr Ruto’s victory in the August 9 election is a foregone conclusion.

One of the colleagues cites the example of his dad who, having watched on television Dr Ruto address large crowds in different parts of the country, has concluded that the DP will beat his main rival, Raila Odinga, in all regions but the latter’s Luo Nyanza backyard.

He says he is very concerned about how the old man will react to the shock of a Ruto loss.

Such high expectations will no doubt be observed among Mr Odinga’s fanatic supporters, who consider the former prime minister’s endorsement by outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta a direct ticket to State House.

Of course, the two sets of supporters are entitled to their opinions on who will win the election.

Security concerns

In any case, pollsters predict a tight race, meaning that each of the two front runners has a chance of emerging victorious.

But the hype around the perceived inevitability of any of the candidates’ win also portends danger to national peace and security in the event of a disputed election outcome.

Both Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga should know this better than anyone else, having had a role in what is the darkest chapter of Kenya’s election history.

The duo was on the same side of the political divide that lost the 2007 election, with Mr Odinga as a presidential candidate and Dr Ruto as the chief campaigner.

Senseless violence

The euphoria among their supporters in the run-up to that year’s election made the senseless violence and the bloodletting that followed the announcement of their loss inevitable.

Dr Ruto was among six Kenyans initially indicted and prosecuted for the election-related crimes at the International Criminal Court (ICC) before their cases collapsed for lack of evidence or witnesses.

Ahead of this year’s election, the two leaders have repeatedly pledged their commitment to peaceful elections, including signing a peace charter prepared by the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC), the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), civil society organisations and the business lobby.

Unlike in the past three elections, the campaign rallies have featured less toxic rhetoric and hate speech this time around.

But the presence of a large number of democracy idiots – the folks who cannot imagine their candidate losing the election – in the two leaders’ backyards makes the prospects of pockets of post-election violence real.

The NCIC has rightly mapped some of these areas as violence hotspots, suggesting security might be enhanced there during and after the election.

It is not too late to ask the democracy idiots among us to behave themselves and spare everyone the inconvenience of having anti-riot police patrolling streets and neighbourhoods.

[email protected]. @otienootieno