With all on board coalition buses, it’s time to slice the cake 

On the authoritative words of Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, few of the many different parties that signed on to be part of Raila Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja coalition actually know what they signed! So why did they rush to sign given the well-documented history of mistrust and broken agreements? Quite simply, it was the fear of missing out on the loot-sharing party to be held after the August 9 General Election!

The train was leaving the station with or without some passengers, Mr Musyoka being one of them. Mr Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta were ready to call the latter’s bluff that he could not board even if he is seen as key to unlocking the Ukambani vote (although Governors Alfred Mutua, Charity Ngilu and Kivutha Kibwana may disagree). 

Mr Odinga and the President know there is nothing a politician dreads more than being out in the cold, especially one that has strutted the rarefied space of the vice-presidency.

So, Mr Musyoka had to take leave of his legal mind and sign the document as a true politician. There may have been some comfort in him knowing that almost every other party had not read the document. The imperative was to sign and deal with the consequences later. And so now with virtually all the notables other than Martha Karua herded into either Azimio or Kenya Kwanza coalitions, the very difficult business of cutting and sharing the victory cake starts.

Talk that the Mountain (or Kikuyu nation) is willing to forego the deputy presidency is double-faced because it really does not matter as long as they control the government and/or Parliament. In any case, anyone taking the presidency has to live with the reality that the Mountain has an iron grip on pretty much anything that matters to governance and the economy.

So when they talk of planning to establish an inclusive government, what these leaders really mean is that the incoming team will be heavily skewed towards the family and friends of the winner (president), the Mountain community and then the rest.

It will be particularly rough this time. Especially within Azimio. Since there are only 22 slots for Cabinet secretary, and probably 10 or more will go to the President’s and the Mountain communities, how will the rest be assigned? 

Hard bargaining 

In readiness for the hard bargaining, many leaders have created tribe-based parties to frame their positions. Some communities like Kamba have more than one party. So after rewarding Mr Musyoka with something of substantive heft, what does Mr Odinga do with Alfred Mutua? The equation will be complicated further if Governor Ngilu and Prof Kibwana are not successful in their bids for re-election as governor and election as Senator for the professor.

In Kakamega, Mr Wycliffe Oparanya expects a just reward for his loyalty to Baba, but so do others, including Dr Mukhisa Kituyi, who must be ruing his decision to abandon the lavish and prestigious global assignment that he had for the fake promise of Kenya’s presidency.

Minister Eugene Wamalwa is another prominent factor in the Luhya equation. From the Coast there is outgoing Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho and his Kilifi counterpart Amason Kingi. Both expect to be recognised as each is in a separate party.

From Kisii you have Dr Fred Matiang’i, who both the President and Mr Odinga had at one time hinted at supporting and who is aggressively defining his authority and influence over the Omogusii community.

But in the ring also is outgoing Kisii Governor James Ongwae, who is even closer to Mr Odinga than Dr Matiang’i is. I am sure he expects that he will be in the inner sanctum of Mr Odinga’s government, if he gets to form one. There is also Prof Sam Ongeri, whose latest move was to join the DAP-K party because ODM has become intolerably hot!

Kanu’s chairman Gideon Moi wields considerable say too, one amplified significantly by the bonds between his family and the Kenyattas. Significantly, he is not defending his seat as Baringo senator. It may be that he has a tenuous hold on the seat, but even more profound is his confidence that Mr Odinga must account for him too.

Mr Odinga or his competitor, Dr William Ruto, who has exactly similar problems, will not lack options. From ambassadorial positions, board directorships, assistant minister positions to special advisors to the president, they have plenty of plums. What they won’t care about is the cost to an economy already on its knees and where, in this picture, the desperately poor millions living in pathetic conditions fit in.

The writer, a former Editor-in-Chief of Nation Media Group, is consulting. [email protected]; @TMshindi)