Survey: Fertility rate of Kenyan women on decline
From left: National Treasury CS Prof Njuguna Ndung'u, Health CS Susan Nakhumicha and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Director General Macdonald Obudho during the launch of the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey report at KICC, Nairobi on July 3, 2023.
The total fertility rate of Kenyan women has been declining steadily across all age cohorts since 2008. This is according to the 2022 Kenya Demographic Health Survey (KDHS).
The survey has also revealed that Mandera County has the highest fertility rate at 7.7 per cent, followed by West Pokot at 6.9 per cent.
Wajir comes third with 6.8 per cent, followed by Marsabit with 6.3 per cent. As in the 2014 survey, Nairobi continues to have the lowest fertility rate, currently at 2.6 per cent, down from 2.7 per cent in 2014. It is followed by Nyamira at 2.7 per cent, Machakos at 2.8 per cent and Kiambu at 2.9 per cent.
Mandera's high fertility rate could be attributed to low modern contraceptive use (two per cent), coupled with a 17 per cent unmet need for family planning among married women aged 15-49.
The decline was attributed to increases in educational attainment, wealth, place of residence and educational attainment. The survey, released on Monday, showed that many women are now choosing to have around three children, down by half since 1989, when women were having between six and seven children.
Fertility rates then fell sharply, with women having between four and five children in 1998, before rising slightly until 2003. The figures then fell in 2008 and 2009, and are still falling.
Although rural women have one more child on average than their urban counterparts, their fertility rates have also fallen from seven in 1989 to three in 2022. Urban women have reduced their fertility from four to five children to two to three over the same period.
"The total fertility rate decreases with increasing levels of education, from 6.3 children for women with no education to 2.8 children for women with more than secondary education. The total fertility rate decreases with increasing wealth quintile, from 5.3 children for women in the lowest wealth quintile to 2.7 children for women in the highest wealth quintile," the study says.
It adds: "On average, rural women aged 40-49 have given birth to 4.8 children, compared with 3.4 for their urban counterparts. The average number of children ever born to women aged 40-49 decreases with educational attainment, from 6.5 for women with no education to 2.8 for women with more than secondary education".
The survey also shows that, on average, women take about 3.5 years between births, with only seven per cent of subsequent births occurring within 18 months of the previous birth. 17 per cent of births occur within two years of the previous birth.
The survey also shows that women generally take longer periods between births as they get older, and that these periods are shortened when the previous child dies. Women with less education also have the shortest birth intervals.
Comparing counties
When comparing counties, women from Embu take the longest (61.5 months) to give birth to their next child, followed by Tharaka Nithi at 59.9 months and Kirinyaga at 58.6 months. Women from Wajir wait 24.7 months, Garissa 24.8 months and Mandera 25 months.
The survey also sought to establish fertility rates among teenagers, with Samburu County recording the highest, followed by West Pokot, which recorded the second highest fertility rate. The survey added that sexual and reproductive behaviour was a contributing factor, especially since "males are more likely than females to initiate sexual intercourse before the age of 15".
Several factors determine women's desire to have another child, including whether they already have children, the number of children they have, and whether they are married. Currently, 47 per cent of currently married women and 57 per cent of married men want to have another child, with smaller percentages wanting to do so soon.
Among married women, those with one or no children expressed the highest desire (88 per cent), while those with six or more children expressed the lowest. Married men with no children expressed the highest desire to have a child (99 per cent), while those with six or more children said they did not want more children.
"Half of currently married women living in rural areas and 38 per cent of those living in urban areas do not want to have any more children. Among currently married women with six or more children and no formal education, 49 per cent do not want any more children. Eighty-four per cent of married women with primary education and 92 per cent of those with secondary education do not want any more children," the survey says.
Women are also taking longer to have their first child, waiting until they are at least 20 years old, compared with 18.6 years in 1989. Those in urban areas are also found to be waiting until at least 22 years, compared to those in rural areas who have their first birth at 19. Educational attainment and wealth also play a role in delaying first births.
By county, women in Nairobi wait the longest (22.3 years), followed by Mombasa (22.2 years) and Kiambu (21.9 years). Migori records the shortest periods, with girls having their first child at 17.9 years, Homabay (18.4 years), Kisumu and Siaya (18.9 years).
In terms of family planning, men preferred to have more children than women, with many wanting to have at least four children, compared to three for women. Age also played a role, with almost half of the women surveyed saying they wanted to have their first children a little later than they did
The survey says: "Sixty-three per cent of live births and current pregnancies to women aged under 20 at the time of the event were wanted later. Seventy-one per cent of live births to women aged 25-29 or 30-34 at the time of the event were wanted. This may explain the report that seven out of ten pregnancies that ended in abortion were either mistimed (65 per cent) or unwanted (6 per cent)".
