Tifa poll: DP Ruto most preferred presidential aspirant

Azimio la UmojaRaila Odinga, Deputy President William Ruto

Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga (left) and Deputy President William Ruto.

Photo credit: Jeff Angote & File | Nation Media Group

Deputy President William Ruto is the most preferred presidential aspirant in the country leading with 39 percent and closely followed by Azimio Flag bearer Raila Odinga at 32 percent, new TIFA poll shows.

This is according to Tifa's latest polls released earlier today that also revealed United Democratic Alliance (UDA) as the most popular political outfit in the country at 34 percent. It is then followed by the Orange Democratic Party (ODM) at 19 percent, Jubilee Party comes a distant third with only 4 percent. Wiper Party garnering 3 percent support. ANC currently has 0percent support and all other parties have a combined percentage of 1.

A large number of Kenyans however still do not know which party to support with 13 percent still undecided, another 20 percent support none with another 6percent failing to respond.

DP Ruto leads in popularity in his backyard Central Rift with 70percent as well as in Mt Kenya (53percent) and South Rift (40 percent). He has 26 percent in the Coast, 28 percent in Lower Eastern, 25 percent in Nairobi, 31 percent in Northern Kenya, 21 percent in Nyanza and 29 percent in Western.

His arch rival, Mr Odinga leads in Nyanza with 56 percent, 41 percent in Lower Eastern, 40 percent in Nairobi, 36percent in the Coast, 37 percent in both South Rift and Western regions and 36 percent in Northern Kenya. He also has a paltry 8percent in Central Rift and 18 percent in Mt Kenya.

Whereas Mr Odinga’s support has risen by 5percent since the last TIFA polls in February where he had 27 percent against Ruto’s 38 percent, TIFA’s lead researcher Tom Wolf noted that his upward trajectory surpassed DP Ruto’s whose support remains ”statistically unchanged”. In the last polls, the deputy president floored Mr Odinga by 11percent but that lead has been reduced to 7percent in two months.

The Kenya Kwanza’s presidential candidate’s popularity rose by 9 percent in Central Rift and another 4percent in Mt Kenya and Lower Eastern. His support declined by 13 percent in Northern Kenya and 8percent in the Coast.

Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Alliance flag bearer’s support increased by 24 percent in Lower Eastern, 8percent in Nyanza as well as 6percent in the Coast, Northern Kenya and Western in the last two months. His popularity however dropped by 6percent in Central Rift.

In terms of age, Dr Ruto enjoys a clear advantage among younger Kenyans (aged 18-34) where he enjoys 40percent of their support Odinga’s 29 percent. His popularity stands at 37 percent with older Kenyans.(35 and above) compared to Odinga’s 35percent.

35 percent of women support the deputy president against Mr Odinga’s 27percent. The trend remains the same with the men with 43 percent supporting Ruto against Odinga’s 37.

The Bottom-Up slogan by the Kenya Kwanza is working its magic on the poorer Kenyan earning between Sh1,000 to Sh5,000 monthly with 21 percent of this population supporting DP Ruto against Odinga’s 16percent.

The tides however changed with those earning between Sh5,000 and Sh20,000 where 48 percent support Mr Odinga compared to Ruto’s 32 percent. At least 27 percent of respondents earning above Sh20,000 support the former Prime Minister against Ruto’s 17 percent.

A whopping 73percent of Kenyans perceive Raila Odinga as President Uhuru Kenyatta’s preferred successor compared to a paltry 4percent who believe the Head of State prefers his deputy to succeed him.

Interestingly, 79 percent of DP Ruto’s supporters believe the president wants his deputy to succeed him whereas 85percent of Odinga’s supporters believe he is Mr Kenyatta’s choice.

With the elections barely three months away, 16 percent of the undecided respondents said they need more information before making their choice. Of this undecided lot, 35 percent said they need to know more about the candidates’ policies and manifestos with another 4 percent saying they are waiting for the announcement of the candidates’ running mates.

Another 3 percent said they will depend on advice from family, friends or respected elders/leaders. 13 percent of this lot however declined to answer what they would want to know so that they make their choice and a whopping 44 percent saying they were not sure what they needed to know before making a decision on who to support.

Tifa also noted that at least 30 percent of respondents support more than one party.

At least 18percent of UDA supporters said they support ODM, another 22 percent support Jubilee with Gatundu South MP, Moses Kuria’s Chama Cha Kazi coming in third.

This is also the case with ODM where 18 percent of its supporters say they support UDA, another 18 percent support Jubilee and another 10 percent support Wiper.

Dr Wolf noted that whereas this lot of “polygamous party supporters” support more than one party, they have already decided on their presidential candidate but have their preferred candidates at the local contests coming from other parties.