Rising Covid infection rates could lead to new lockdowns

The government says it will consider reintroducing a lockdown among other stringent measures if spiking coronavirus infections are not contained soon.

After a two-month lull, Covid-19 cases have been on the rise in recent days, amid fears that Omicron variant, which is yet to be detected in Kenya, could be fuelling the fresh surge.

As of yesterday, the national positivity rate stood at 6.6 per cent—about six times what it was just a week ago (one per cent on December 4).

Positivity rate is the percentage of people who test positive for the Sars-Cov-2 virus that causes the Covid-19 disease from an overall sample tested.

The rate is a useful measure of how much the virus is spreading in a community and the World Health Organisation says anything above five percent is a concern. Data from the Health ministry indicates that 201 people tested positive for the disease on Sunday from 4,011 samples. Yesterday, 149 more were confirmed to be infected from a sample size of 2,280.

“From the cases 143 are Kenyans while six are foreigners. 81 females and 68 are males. The youngest is a one-year-old child while the oldest is 97 years,” Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe said in a status report.

“Total confirmed positive cases are now 256,484 and cumulative tests so far conducted are 2,891,893.”

The spiking infections have left Mr Kagwe and his team concerned, with the CS saying they would consider many options to arrest the trend.

“We expect the modelling team and scientists to meet and consider the emerging situation and advise the NERCC [National Emergency Response Committee on Coronavirus]. If a reintroduction of the lockdown and other stringent measures is recommended for consideration by the NERCC, we shall consider it appropriately,” he told the Nation.

Covid-19 hotbeds

“There is a process for consideration of what measures to take that has served us well in the past and we do not want to abuse it.”

When President Uhuru Kenyatta restricted movement in and out of Nairobi, Kajiado, Machakos, Kiambu and Nakuru, five counties that were considered Covid-19 hotbeds in March 2020, the positivity rate stood at 22 percent.

He urged Kenyans to observe Covid-19 guidelines, including wearing of face masks, social distancing and handwashing on top of getting vaccinated. Health experts are also warning Kenyans against dropping their guard.

“Dear Kenyans. There is indeed a bug going around with similar clinical features to Covid-19. Yes, it could be seasonal flu. Just remember that Sars-Cov-2 enters your system in exactly the same way as that bug,” Prof Lukoye Atwoli, dean of the Medical College at Aga Khan University, said in a tweet. “So your risk of getting Covid-19 is high if you get the bug. If you protect yourself adequately from Covid-19 you’ll probably be safe from the circulating respiratory bug as well.”

Last month, scientists predicted that Kenya would experience a fifth spike in Covid-19 infections towards the end of November and beginning December.

Unlike the third and fourth waves, they said a spike was more likely than a wave. On Thursday, the director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) warned countries across the continent to ready themselves for another spike.

“We already have Omicron in seven countries. It is inevitable that we will experience another surge and that is why we are calling on people to get vaccinated,” said Dr John Nkengasong at a weekly briefing.

Omicron

In South Africa, where Omicron was first detected, data shows that some of the symptoms— blocked or runny nose— differ from those associated with other variants, while others like headache, sore throat and body aches, which are similar to flu symptoms, still indicate an infection.

Preliminary studies, mostly in South Africa, show that Omicron does not cause severe illness, and deaths mainly occur among the unvaccinated.

But Omicron is highly transmissible, has a high positivity rate, and has high chances of reinfections and vaccine breakthrough infection. The latter occurs when a fully vaccinated person is infected with Covid-19.

On the severity of the disease, data from hospitals indicates that cases of infected people getting hospitalised or dying are low compared with the current community infection rate or previous waves. Most people infected in South Africa, for instance, have a milder disease that does not require oxygen therapy compared with the Delta variant.

A study in South Africa, published online Tuesday, offered a glimpse at how vaccinated people might fare against Omicron.

Laboratory experiments found that, while Omicron seems to dull the power of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, people who have received a booster shot might be better protected.

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