How economic woes could hurt electoral fairness in 2024 calendar

After the 8th Annual Continental Forum of Election Management Bodies (EMBs) in Cotonou, Benin, the continental bloc is seeking ways of better management of elections and improvement of democracy on the continent.

Ideally, electoral authorities such as the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission in Kenya, the Electoral Commission in Uganda and the National Independent Electoral Commission in the DR Congo, want to learn from one another’s experiences and lessons to improve future elections.

Yet the biggest challenges for them, an outcome document from the November meeting released last week shows, would be funding the very programmes that could ensure free and fair polls.

“The cost of elections is increasing, posing challenges for governments with contracting economies,” says the document released last week by the African Union Commission.

“A developmental approach grounded in value for money by EMB is needed to ensure quality work despite limited resources. Electoral commissions should consider the opportunity cost of elections and allocate and use resources effectively.”

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Several African countries expect to hold elections in the next 12 months, including the DR Congo whose polls are expected on December 20. Rwanda, Mali, South Sudan, Ghana, Algeria, Botswana, Senegal, Chad and South Africa are expected to hold elections in 2024, in which they will choose local representatives and presidents.

But most of these countries have been hurting, already, from the shocks of Covid-19, the emergence of conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, and local climatic disasters.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, Africa could be the fastest-growing continent economically, especially with countries in East Africa remaining resilient in 2024. However, security threats, political instability and debt repayment burdens could drag or derail their expenditure priorities.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) revised the outlook for 2024, showing that the continent’s growth prospects from 4.1 percent earlier in May to 3.4 percent five months later for 2023, citing political instability, weak global growth and high interest rates. The continent could see economies grow cumulatively to 3.8 percent but the AfDB says some of the impacts that drag growth could linger for some time.

Integrity over peace

In Eastern Africa, conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia have hurt their growth and delayed the local polls in the Tigray region after the war ended in November last year. South Sudan which plans elections in 2024 has faced financing issues to create a proper electoral body, and sufficient legal frameworks to manage its first-ever presidential elections.

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Officials in the coalition government in Juba have bickered publicly on whether the country is ready for elections.

The problem for electoral authorities, and on finances specifically, goes beyond just preparations for elections. As competitive polls rise, contestants tend to choose courts to resolve perceived unfairness, adding new costs to the electoral management bodies.

“African political landscape has shifted from multipolar elections to more competitive elections driven by high stakes which have correspondingly made them more litigious,” the document says.

Of late, these bodies, including the African Union itself have emphasised on “peaceful elections” rather than “transparent elections.” Now the continental electoral experts admit that is adding a toll on the electoral managers.

“Ultimately, the growing emphasis on securing peace in electoral processes sometimes at the expense of democratic principles has led to decisions that have, at times, compromised electoral integrity, the experts argue in the report.

“While peace is important, electoral management bodies should prioritise electoral integrity and democratic principles,” they added.

Most of the problems are, however, self-inflicted with electoral authorities blamed for not communicating clearly when problems arise in their preparations. The experts say they found that some electoral bodies on the continent lack strategies for communicating with clients, have no contacts with those clients or simply run their communications using people who are not experts.

Those authorities have struggled in the case of new legal changes before elections such as when a court removes certain legal barriers to polls.

In Kenya, in 2022, the Independent Electoral Commission struggled to communicate after the Court rejected the use of manual registers, on the eve of elections. The African Union experts think there shouldn’t be last-minute legal changes at all.

“That policy and legislative uncertainty arising from pre-election litigation hurt assertive communication by EMB’s affecting how they communicate especially around the election calendar,” the AU team said.

Nonetheless, transparency in the electoral process starts with timely communication about delays and alterations, “to foster stakeholder trust in the election administration.”

“Instead of consistently being in a perpetual reactive “firefighting” mode, EMBs are advised to proactively interact with stakeholders.”