Why Africa should invest in modern weather forecasting technology
The stalled bridge on River Enziu in Kitui County pictured on November 22, 2023.
What you need to know:
- Early warning systems are an essential tool for risk management and disaster preparedness.
- They predict hazards such as floods, tsunamis, landslides, volcanoes, and droughts, and aim to reduce the risks associated with them.
When it comes to military strength, most African countries are matching their peers in the West. Egypt in possession of several F-16 Fighting Falcon, South Africa boasting the Saab JAS 39 Gripen and Kenya running away with the Northrop F-5E Tiger II.
But as the continent suffers the greatest impacts of climate change in form of extreme weather, African countries aren’t anywhere close to matching the worlds’ investment in weather forecasting infrastructure.
The main types of disasters that have affected Africa are droughts and floods, which are all forecastable. Regrettably, the continent has the least developed land-based observation network of all continents and one that is in a deteriorating state.
It’s the only continent in the 21st century where religious leaders and politicians still make weather pronouncements. Based on the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) database, Europe and the United States have a combined total of 636 weather radar stations for a population of 1.1 billion.
In contrast, Africa, with a population of 1.2 billion people ,has 37 weather radar stations variably distributed across the continent. Africa needs to increase her funding in weather forecasting infrastructure.
Early warning systems are an essential tool for risk management and disaster preparedness. They predict hazards such as floods, tsunamis, landslides, volcanoes and droughts, and aim to reduce the risks associated with them. An effective early warning is capable of saving many lives and reducing damage by 30 per cent if activated 24 hours before the event.
A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 per cent of the time while a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 per cent of the time. The atmosphere ‘forgets’ its current state in 14 days. That means that no matter what’s happening with the weather now, in 14 days the current situation can change in any direction.
The 14 days are called the ‘theoretical limit’ of weather prediction. Every day of weather not recorded means that more crucial data is missing. For Africa, climate risks are expected to pose significant challenges to food security, biodiversity, poverty eradication, economic growth and human health.
The implications of scarce meteorological data are severe. If the weather isn’t reliably recorded, weather models cannot be calibrated. Without accurate models, meteorologists cannot make accurate forecasts and warn people about upcoming extremes, nor can we build better-quality climate models.
The lack of data has led to challenges in measuring the extent of climate change. Political leaders should note that the absence of hard numbers could make it difficult to prove global warming’s impact on the continent in accessing the Loss and damage fund.
The Systematic Observations Financing Facility is a recent United Nations initiative to address climate and weather data gaps and to ensure that early warning systems are established wherever they’re needed.
Africa needs long-term investment to develop climate science programmes, increase local meteorological expertise, maintain weather stations and digitise weather records. With the continent aware of where the shoe pinches, it must take the initiative not to be caught unawares.
