Voters, not opinion polls, will decide winner, Isiolo aspirants say
Candidates from Isiolo in the August 9 elections, from left: Ms Winfred Kagwiria (woman rep), Mr Nuh Mohammed Ibrahim (Senate) and Mr Halakhe Waqo (governor). The three have dismissed Tifa opinion polls which showed that they are behind their competitors.
Isiolo ODM gubernatorial candidate Halakhe Waqo is among candidates who have dismissed a recent survey conducted by Trends & Insights Africa (Tifa) that places him third in popularity in the race to take over from Governor Mohamed Kuti — who recently announced he will not be seeking re-election due to health concerns.
The results of the survey that was done between July 5 and July 6, 2022 show that former Isiolo governor Godana Doyo is leading in the contest and would reclaim the seat, with his popularity standing at 45 per cent.
He is followed by Jubilee Party’s Abdi Ibrahim Hassan who has a 34 per cent popularity rating with Deputy President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance candidate Hussein Tene coming fourth at two per cent despite the party emerging the most popular in the county.
‘Opinion poll doctored’
Mr Waqo claimed the polls were doctored to favour his competitors and that they were not a representation of the reality on the ground.
“The poll is fake and the information contained therein is baseless. The figures will not translate to any votes and voters will decide at the ballot,” he said.
Senatorial candidate Nuh Mohammed Ibrahim and woman rep aspirant Winfred Kagwiria also poured cold water on the Tifa survey.
Mr Nuh, the report showed, trails Senator Fatuma Dullo at 26 per cent against incumbent’s 47 per cent, with outgoing Isiolo Speaker Hussein Roba (Kanu) being the third most popular aspirant at four per cent.
“I am ahead of Senator Dullo and I wonder which part of the county those sampled for the survey were picked from because more than half of Isiolo voters are supporting my bid,” Mr Nuh claimed, adding that the poll will be discredited by voters in the August 9 elections.
Ms Kagwiria, who came third in the Tifa poll, said the results did not represent the real picture on the ground. Incumbent Woman Rep Rehema Jaldesa is leading at 36 per cent followed by Jubilee’s Mumina Bonaya at 29 per cent.
‘Reality on the ground’
“We do not know how many people were interviewed and from where. The results are contrary to the reality on the ground,” she said.
She also dismissed the poll’s results which showed that majority of Isiolo residents would vote for Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga, insisting that the Kenya Kwanza flagbearer William Ruto is more popular.
A total of 435 voters from across the county were interviewed via phone according to Tifa with 75 percent of them coming from the seven wards in Isiolo North.
The percentage of residents who currently do not have preferred candidates for governor, senator and woman rep seats are substantial to tilt the scale in favour of the two leading candidates for the three seats.
Frontrunners
Mr Doyo and Mr Ibrahim are the perceived frontrunners in the race for Isiolo governor while Ms Jaldesa and Ms Bonaya are neck and neck in the woman rep contest.
Ms Dullo and Mr Nuh are the frontrunners in the Senate race.
The candidate who manages to marshal the majority of the 18 per cent of undecided voters for woman rep, 11 percent for governor and 20 per cent for the senator will likely emerge the winner in the coming elections.
Analysts say the chunk of undecided voters who range between 9,000 and 17,000 across the three county seats will provide the swing votes in the races.
