Sub-clan politics takes centre stage as governor race enters homestretch

With less than a month to the August 9 General Election, the race to unseat Garissa Governor Ali Korane is turning into a three-horse contest.

Clan dynamics, track record and financial muscle are likely to determine who wins the election.

Four candidates — incumbent Ali Bunow Korane (Jubilee) Mr Nathif Jamah (ODM), Mr Dekow Barrow (UDA) and Mr Yussuf Hassan (Narc-Kenya) — were cleared to run for the seat.

All of them hail from the larger Ogaden clan but the sub-clan politics will now determine who emerges victorious.

Garissa County is home to the Ogaden clan of the Somali community. The clan is divided into Auliyahan, Abudwaq and Samawathal sub-clans, whose areas are also demarcated as electoral units.

While the Abudwaq dominates Balambala, Garissa Township and Fafi constituencies, areas around Dadaab and Lagdera fall under the Auliyahan while Ijara is considered a stronghold of Samawathal.

Ogaden clan

Although there are other minority clans, the Ogaden controls the county’s politics.

Mr Korane is being challenged by his close relative and a former military man, Mr Dekow Mohamed Barrow. They both hail from the Abudwaq sub-clan.

Former governor Nadhif Jama comes from the Auliyahan sub-clan.

The Samawathal (the late senator Yussuf Haji’s clan) have always acted as the swing vote in the gubernatorial race.

The choice of running mates is also expected to contribute to who wins in the polls.

Running mates

Mr Korane, Mr Jama and Mr Barrow have picked running mates from the Samawathal sub-clan.

Mr Jama dealt Mr Korane a blow after he picked the latter’s deputy governor, Mr Abdi Dakane, for the position.

Mr Jama is said to have struck a deal with the Samawathal after the death of the Tolomoge Matra alliance in 2017.

Tolomoge alliance was between the Abduwaq (Korane) and Samawathal (Yussuf Haji) that led to the fall of Mr Jama.

“Mr Jama is the man to watch in this race after he entered into a deal with Senator Abdul Haji of the late Yusuf Haji group and the Samawathal are likely to vote for him as a bloc,” said Mr Hassan Ali, a resident.

Under the new political marriage, the Samawathal are demanding for the Garissa Township parliamentary seat currently held by Mr Aden Duale as well as Township and Fafi ward representative positions.

‘Negotiated democracy’

Under the ‘negotiated democracy’ plan, all the sub-clans are pushing for a share of the county cake.

However, critics argue that negotiated democracy is a ‘sanitised’ system of impunity, with no democratic ethos or ideological framework.

“Negotiated democracy was a very noble and fair concept before the elders got deeply entangled in corruption and vested interests. That is when the rain started beating us,” said Mr Ali Mohamed, a political analyst.

In a recent television debate, Mr Jama blamed clan politics for the sorrowful state of the county.

“I had laid a strong foundation for devolution in Garissa but our tribal politics interfered with it, giving us a raw deal,” he said.

Mr Mohamed Abdi, a political commentator, said urban voters do not necessarily vote for a candidate based on his or her clan but for their interests.

Duale factor

“Worth noting is the fact that the Duale factor will also come into play since he played a big part in supporting Korane in the 2017 election.  “You cannot just write off his influence when it comes to Garissa politics and especially that of the constituency he represents, which is vote-rich. He is a populist who remains a darling of the masses,” Mr Abdi said.

Mr Barrow of UDA enjoys the support of Mr Duale.

Mr Jama admitted that clan dynamics plays a big part in the election but one’s development track record is a big contributor to their performance in the election.

Although he has a tainted record, Mr Korane believes he will still make a good governor.

The governor has a number of court cases hanging on his neck.

Mr Korane said despite the challenges he has encountered since 2017, he has initiated a number of development projects.

Fresh leader

Mr Yussuf Hassan, a former County Assembly Clerk, said Garissa needs a fresh leader.

“Garissa needs fresh blood and I am that option to take this county to the next level. These two [Mr Korane and Mr Jama] have tested leadership and we know what they have done,” he said.

Ms Nathifa Hassan, a political analyst, said money is also determinant of the next office holder.

“Those with money will win the voter’s heart through dishing out handouts. Among Somalis, huge amounts of money are involved but are usually given to the clan elders,” she said.

On Wednesday, Mr Korane skipped a televised gubernatorial debate as the other three candidates highlighted their development plan if elected.

The debate, aired on a local television station, saw Mr Jama blame his successor for the current sorrow state of the county.

“I was the first governor of Garissa with a vision and I laid a strong foundation for devolution but the person who took over from me messed it up. I want to go back and correct the mess so that we can continue from where I left,” he said.

Mr Jama of ODM, Mr Barrow (UDA) and Mr Hassan (Narc Kenya) pledged to address the challenges facing residents.

Mr Barrow said the county needs fresh minds and faces to take it to the next level.

‘Tested and failed’

“We all know what has happened in this county in the past 10 years. Both the former and current governor have been tested and we know they failed,” Mr Barrow said.

Mr Hassan said the former governor had more than enough resources but lacked a vision for the county.

“I want to be a people’s governor. I will always engage residents at the village level on what they want done for them unlike now when the governor decides from the comfort of his office,” he said.

On the ailing health sector, Mr Jama said he developed better health referral services and improved facilities at the sub-county level.

Mr Dekow said he will invest heavily in the sector by equipping and staffing the facilities while Mr Hassan said under him, Garissa will get enough professionals to work in the health facilities.

Mortuary

While Mr Dekow and Hassan pledged to build a mortuary for the Christian community in the county, Mr Jamah said he built a mortuary while in office only that his successor failed to maintain it.

On education, Mr Jama said his presidential candidate Raila Odinga has a plan to lower grades for those intending to be trained as teachers. “My leadership will support that plan,” he said.

Mr Hassan said he will introduce a policy to sponsor all local students willing to join teacher colleges to address the shortage.

He pledged to introduce a feeding programme in ECDE centres and hire more teachers.

Mr Jama said his administration had hired more than 500 ECDE teachers and built at least 300 classrooms.

All the three candidates pledged to engage and work with the national government to improve security in the border county.