Uhuru must make his move now

A strange thing happened in the Mt Kenya region this year. Two senior political figures aspiring for the country’s presidency set out to climb the mountain, but one was stymied by past hatreds and nasty – oftentimes infantile – propaganda, while the other one cleverly went to the ground and through his amply compensated henchmen, somehow convinced the majority poor in the region that he was their only hope. 

As a result, the United Democratic Alliance has become dominant in the region, while the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition (now a political party) has been trying to play catch-up for more than a year now, with fairly little success.

What is incontestable is that those in Mr Raila Odinga’s corner never saw this coming and therefore failed to counter the moves by Deputy President William Ruto until it was almost too late. As a result, and as we speak now, the mountain is UDA country. However, the UDA wave in the six counties that make Central Kenya (and their diaspora in Nairobi, Kajiado and Nakuru) was not principally the result of the great love that the masses have for the personalities that lead this alliance. 

Rather, it had everything to do with the message and promises which resonated well with their frustrations caused by the country’s sinking economy and spiraling cost of living.

It also had everything to do with misplaced resentment with President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Jubilee Party. Folks were made to believe that the President had done little for the region, a conclusion that may have been caused by a bewildering sense of entitlement. 

Development projects

After all, they argued, they elected President Kenyatta three times in 10 years and did not really benefit as a community. Instead, they say, development projects went to regions that have never voted for him. The banality of such arguments is quite obvious in a country of more than 40 ethnic communities, but who really cares about logic in an election year?

Basically, the popularity of UDA in Mt Kenya has little to do with Dr Ruto’s charisma or eloquence – which he has in plenty, one must admit – but with his “bottom-up” economic model. It is a narrative that promises to free the hustlers from the shackles of poverty, a form of populism with socialist undertones. 

Among the thinking population, especially the middle class, this is so much hogwash. Unfortunately, few in this class actually vote. The majority, who vote, don’t actually think beyond their next meal. What they are never told is that there is nothing like free lunch anywhere in this world and they are being fed with promises that can only work in cloud cuckoo land. They will only discover the hoax for what it is late in the day, and then they will be back to hating someone else for a change.

It is still too early to tell who will prevail in the presidential contest, but one thing is clear. Whoever does will not have Mt Kenya’s interests at heart, for the vote will have been too divided to make any great impact.

Nevertheless, the Azimio crowd have a few cards up their sleeves and tribal arithmetic, not dodgy economic policies, may actually decide the race. 

And then there is the enormous power of the State to reckon with. President Kenyatta’s allegiance to the Azimio coalition has never been in doubt – in fact he is one of its “principals” – and pretty soon, he is set to make a last-ditch effort to sway the political views through a tour of the region.

Mother of the rebellion

Many people think that he perhaps left it too late, but then his timetable may not have allowed him the opportunity. What will be interesting is how he will be received in the areas he does visit. He can expect to be smeared with mud before and after his tours, but he has by now become inured to insults and innuendo. 

My unsolicited advice to him is that he should not give up on that count. Instead, he must continue to sell both Azimio and Mr Odinga in the mountain, for most likely, there are many voters who are still undecided and are waiting for direction.

It is clear that both Jubilee diehards and Azimio stalwarts hope the President’s Thursday visit to Kandara in Murang’a for a church ceremony will be the start of similar forays into the mountain for both campaign and official functions. 

Murang’a is the mother of the rebellion against him in Kikuyuland and it could also be the place where Tinga finally finds some form of acceptance, an outcome that will help him in his quest for a vote that could eventually tip the scale in his favour.

Whether the President will succeed in convincing people who seem to have been completely zombified by the allure of unrealistic expectations is another issue altogether. What he cannot afford to do is to sit back and wait for the events to sort themselves out. As a strategy, that would be the easiest route to defeat.

Mr Ngwiri is a consultant editor; [email protected].