Why poll run-off is a possibility

I wrote in this column on January 29 as follows: “Unless Azimio strategists change tactics on how to ‘climb’ the mountain, they will fail.

“They need to climb down instead and start all over at the grassroots. There is no point in organising huge rallies in major towns and neglecting the small towns and settlements. Right now, their presence is not being felt on the ground. 

“Take for instance the meeting arranged for Mr Raila Odinga in Thika, the second in a month. The crowd is likely to be huge but you can bet very few people in the surrounding rural areas will abandon their hustles to go listen to Baba. If he is interested in Gatundu votes….why doesn’t he make himself more visible by going on a whirlwind tour of small towns in the two constituencies and canvassing?” 

I might as well have been whistling in the wilderness for, apparently, those I was “advising” didn’t take notice. 

However, someone in the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) could have done it though, and yesterday, Deputy President Ruto was scheduled to tour Gatundu South constituency, starting with President Uhuru Kenyatta’s home village, Ichaweri, in a carefully orchestrated move to undercut his nominal boss. 

Judging from the resentment that seems to have built up against the President in his backyard, I would not be surprised if the tour did not sway a few more opinions in favour of the “Hustler Movement”. 

As a general rule, I rarely participate in political affairs of any kind – no rallies, conventions or million-a-plate dinners meant to raise funds for the election of my favourite presidential candidate. 

My preferred candidate

However, as a citizen who believes in playing his civic role, I’ve been trooping to the voting booth since 2002, the first time I felt that my vote could mean something. I am not sure it did, but at least 3.7 million fellow Kenyans must have concluded that the once hallowed Independence party was way past its sell-by date.

On August 9, I intend to rise up at 5am, God willing, not necessarily to vote for my preferred candidate, but to vote against my least favourite. Whether that vote will make any difference is another issue altogether. 

One can only hope that many other voters will on that day do the right thing, for a mistake made in one morning can take a minimum of 10 years to undo. 

However, the way we are going about making our choices is proving to be a great embarrassment.

Two weeks ago, I entered a social joint and the place was crawling with humanity, three-quarters of whom did not have any legitimate business there. 

When I asked about it, I was told they were waiting for a chap who is vying for the seat as area MP. But judging from their general appearance, very few of them are likely to vote; they had just learnt that the aspirant was coming to strategise with his supporters and he would, obviously, bring with him neat bundles of Sh50 or Sh100 notes to distribute.

Sure enough, when the man came in, they were made to line up all around the compound and wait for their dole. It was a distressing sight; grown men queuing in the fierce sun waiting for pitiable handouts so they could get enough free money to sate their craving for alcohol. 

Lowest voter turnout

When I asked one whether he intended to vote for the “mheshimiwa”, he admitted he was only there for the money, and the following day he would collect some more from the man vying as MCA. 

After that sorry episode, I was passing through Gatundu market when I overheard two young women talking. Said one: “When the Hustler comes, I shall wear a yellow cap and when Azimio comes, the blue one. I have both, but I will vote for the one I want.”

That is what makes democracy made in Kenya very exciting. It is a commodity for sale.

Conventional wisdom indicates that the masses will vote against the man the President supports, but the more thoughtful types may do just the opposite. Many of them are slowly recognising that they may be starting on a journey to uncharted territory in the opposition where they will get lost, while others are realising that the Mt Kenya vote may not be the decisive factor after all. 

Indeed, the area may record the lowest turnout in two decades, which will definitely harm those pinning their hopes on high numbers. 

The other thing those caught up in the Hustler euphoria forget is that trying to herd the Gema vote into one bloc can be tricky so long as none of their own is running for office. A huge number of “Hustlers” may make loud noise but not vote, while a smaller number of middle-aged folks may vote if only to disassociate themselves from the wheelbarrow herd mentality. In other words, the vote in August may not be as conclusive as some political pundits want us to believe, and a run-off is a distinct possibility. 

Mr Ngwiri is a consultant editor; [email protected]