Governor George Natembeya at his office at the Trans Nzoia County Government headquarters in Kitale Town.
Politics in an ethnically divided society can be interesting. It involves complex nuances that are not obvious to the naked eye.
In the ideal, free and open democracy, politics should be based on issues, particularly matters of economy. The contest should be on politicians’ views on the government’s role in an economy, tussles over raising or reducing taxes and even the role of unions in fixing labour prices and the like. But that is not how politics in ethnically divided societies like Kenya is often played.
There are hard, fundamental ethnic issues that loom underground. Whereas politics in Kenya seems to be evolving more towards issues — if the 2022 “Hustler” elections is anything to go by — the ethnic fundamentals remain alive and a keen look at poll results reveals these fundamentals.
One seminal book that explains politics in ethically polarised societies was written by Donald Horowitz and is titled Ethnic Groups in Conflict. where Horowitz expounds on a theory he called “ethnic outbidding”.
It refers to situations where politicians compete for support of an ethnic group, leading to greater exclusionary ethnic rhetoric at the expense of other groups. In a nutshell, a sly politician seeks to outdo a fellow politician where both come from same community.
The sly-er one goes to the extreme of seeking to outdo the more moderate one using language that strikes deep ethnic chords. The moderate might follow suit to avoid being bested. It becomes a race to the bottom.
A good example is Sri Lanka's independence party of 1948 which comprised of politicians of the two main ethnic groups: Sinhalese majority and Tamil minority.
During colonialism, the white man had vested privileges on the minority Tamils. But both groups fought colonialism and formed a single party.
However, some Sinhalese politicians jostling for power against each other started subtle anti-Tamil rhetoric. Those that went to extremes won but to the exclusion of the Tamil. Tamils revolted and a long-winded civil war ensued. Probably this explains the1960s Kanu party falling out between Jomo Kenyatta and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga when the founding president’s side decided to oath Kikuyus.
But politicians in a modern democratic polity will not employ direct ethnic language. America’s Donald Trump is the exception. He harangues Mexicans as rascals and African countries as dirty and gets away with it. In modern times, such leaders will deploy “dog whistling politics” — the use of coded or suggestive language in political messaging to garner support without provoking opposition. The phrase is picked from ultrasonic dog whistle, audible to dogs but not humans.
Such language changes in every political season and not every political whistling is negative. Some is hilarious. For example, from 2022 “Watu wa Mlima” (mountain people) meant Kikuyu, Embu and Meru. “Mzee wa Kitendewili” (old man of riddles) referred to Raila Odinga, while in 2007, “Madoadoa” (spots ) meant “non-natives” in opposition strongholds.
Remember “Ukiona wao weka tyre” (when you see them hang a tyre (on their necks) slogan by former Makadara MP Reuben Ndolo? Upon his arrest,he told police he meant “switch on the lights to enable them to pass.” Except that interpreters knew what he alluded to.
Hence, ethnic outbidders will employ such coded political language very effectively and sway listeners. And that is why the card that the Tawe (No) Mmovement has played in Luhyaland needs to be watched keenly. Not only because of its possible impact, but also the where it originates in Bukusuland.
This region delivered the ruling coalition UDA’s win and if it slips, the ruling coalition is in trouble.
So, how should UDA respond?
First, UDA should not consider instituting any criminal court action against Tawe Movement. Unsophisticated minds might think the legalway the right remedy and probably cite some laws on incitement on ethnic grounds. But that would actually elevate the proponents to ethnic saint status. And probably, that’s Tawe wants and so, UDA should not fall into that trap.
Arrests would make frontline news and discussed in all news channels for weeks. Even those who might not have heard about Tawe Movement would join up. Temember, arrests and perceived harassment built Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto and Moses Kuria. Politics is never remedied using the law. Political problems are remedied through political strategy. Laws can only handle criminals .
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew inherited an ethnically divided society in the 1960s but through deft management of the country, he morphed the disparate groups into a common identity. He consistently hammered the point of ethnic unity and through action and demonstrated probity.
It is also almost impossible to sustain a legal charge and obtain conviction in instances where politicians use dog whistler language.
One possible remedy is to engage media “behind the scenes” to block ethnic outbidders. What media is to a politician is what water is to a fish.
President Daniel arap Moi used to deploy this tactic. Any opposition politician that ranted at a press conference received zero media coverage after Moi “sweet-talked editors to block coverage”.
But the modern world has one problem: social media which lacks gate-keepers. And Kenya is not like those nations that block the internet. Indeed, Tawe videos trend like nobody’s business and the censorship solution has been rendered irrelevant by time and modernity.
The best remedy lies in economics. Ethnic outbidding germinates in a soil that has been ripened by economic issues. Outbidders merely take advantage of economics to whip up ethnic points. And if the people can see a better economic future beyond the horizon being promised by the ethnic bidder, nationalists can succeed, but only if they move fast before the ground is lost forever.
Nature abhors a vacuum.
- The writer is the Murang’a County governor; Email: [email protected].
