Mt Kenya, the bride everyone wants beckons

The great showdown in Mt Kenya is due to begin. The official kickoff is February 25-26, when the hitherto dormant Jubilee Party holds its long overdue national delegates convention.

Before then, President Uhuru Kenyatta will summon his elected and grassroots loyalists from all over the Mountain region to Sagana State Lodge on February 19 to lay down strategy – and fire up the Jubilee troops.

Behind the scenes, the President's teams are busy working on his itinerary and messaging for the long-awaited tour of Mt Kenya and the nation. Constituency forums to reactivate Jubilee have been launched and 20 are planned in Mt Kenya alone this week.

On February 4, the Jubilee Parliamentary Group endorsed Uhuru to continue as party leader beyond the August 9 election.

The party's colours and logo have been pointedly changed. They now look exactly like those of the TNA party Uhuru launched in 2012. The logo of clasped hands that was adopted when TNA merged with URP has been removed. It's back to the dove of TNA.

The motto of 'Tuko Pamoja' has also been discarded. It's now back to 'Mbele Pamoja'.

The Jubilee T-shirts and other materials are now a full-blooded red and white, with no trace of the yellow that was associated with URP, and subsequently, United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

After the Jubilee NDC, which will be at the KICC and will be held concurrently with that of ODM which will be at Nyayo stadium, the combined Azimio formation intends to fan out across the country for campaign rallies.

Initially, though, Jubilee will reportedly focus on Mt Kenya. Uhuru's first Mt Kenya rallies could be immediately following the NDC.

Favoured stamping ground

Why the region? It has long been a favoured stamping ground of Deputy President William Ruto's UDA.

A fierce battle for the region's allegiance and votes is expected. Are UDA's roots deep enough to withstand Jubilee's onslaught there? Put another way, will the fight Uhuru has put out succeed in reclaiming the region? All this will be very fascinating to follow.

The Tangatanga storyline is that the Mountain is gone forever to UDA, never to return. That Jubilee is dead and buried, and that no matter what Uhuru says and does, nothing can change that reality. That's the message from Murang'a Senator Irungu Kang'ata, who has welcomed Uhuru to "waste his time" in Mt Kenya looking for support.

The same acid message has been amplified by Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, who says they are not worried by the President's entry into the fray.

Says she: "We have nothing to fear. In fact the President will be surprised that the Mountain moved a long time ago and it's solidly in UDA. Whether they revamp Jubilee or join Azimio is not an issue. Whether Jubilee changes its name, colours or logo, it is a dead horse, flogging it will not change anything."

Lies and propaganda

Not so fast, replies Jubilee footsoldiers like Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu and Ndaragwa's Jeremiah Kioni. They have warned Tangatangas that their day in the Mountain is over, and that Uhuru is coming to uproot them.

"We understand the panic they (Mt Kenya Tangatangas) are in. We know and they know Uhuru will come to destroy their lies and propaganda permanently," asserts Wambugu.

Uhuru has himself thrown fighting barbs at UDA. "Jubilee is not dead. It went to work. Now has come the political season...and if you're competing with Jubilee anywhere, you'll be competing with Uhuru Kenyatta," he told the Jubilee PG.

He added: "This is a marathon and one has to know at which point to sprint."

DP Ruto has told him to bring it on. He will be facing Uhuru in the Mountain, not so much Raila Odinga. This will be an epic confrontation never seen before in Kenya between a President and his deputy.

Who will have the last laugh? I wouldn't wish to speculate until I see the trend when Uhuru enters his home region for his final, valedictory lap as President.

It's only a couple of weeks or so before we start seeing how the answer will unfold.

What is so far clear is that, given the big number of votes at play in the Mountain, whoever between Ruto and Raila will reap more votes in the region will start with an important edge nationally. I certainly don't expect either of them will get the huge voter percentages Uhuru amassed there in 2013 and 2017.

One must also reckon with a lower Mountain voter turnout and even a level of voter apathy. Chances are that the turnout will be less than 2017 and that the vote will be split.

Technically ‘undecided’

The numbers that have occasionally been polled show a large mass of Mountain voters who are technically "undecided" at this stage. No doubt the figures will tighten as we approach August. Some of these "undecideds", especially among the older generation, have been mumbling they are awaiting "direction" from Uhuru.

Others, especially the younger voters, have their issues clearly defined (jobs, small businesses, etc) but want to make their final determination once they hear how the two main party formations flesh out solutions.

In a youth jamboree held at State House on Friday, which 3,000 attended, Jubilee revealed it would make a major pitch for this voter segment.

UDA has certainly been working on the youth too, promising support for business start-ups.

During the jamboree Uhuru also let it known the stalled Building Bridges Initiative proposals will form a key plank of his outreach to the Mountain.

As Uhuru seeks to reclaim the Mountain, he should remember one lesson. If you neglect your home, the wife will stray. Always be there. Work must never supersede family.

Uhuru's greatest mistake in his Presidency was to ignore the politics of his home region so as to ostensibly deliver development projects first.

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