Finally, no shame in tribe as key political leverage

The picture last week of presidential hopeful Raila Odinga being carpeted by rich members of the Mt Kenya Foundation in what essentially was a trade-off interview in which an influential segment of the Kikuyu tribe placed demands they wanted accepted before they commit to support Mr Odinga’s candidacy confirms to me that Kenya’s brand of tribal politics has matured enough for it to be played out in the open.

For long a powerful factor in how politics was played and national resources shared, it was, however, downplayed as a factor as political parties, themselves very much vehicles to drive tribal agendas, prepared and launched manifestos that pretended to be tribe agnostic. It is a relief that this pretence has finally been jettisoned and tribe is openly claiming its rightful place at the heart of the country’s politics.

In a way, it is one of the unintended legacies of President Uhuru Kenyatta.

With his planned departure from office later next year and the populous and economically powerful Kikuyu community not seriously seeking the presidency, the question of who could best protect their interests was going to set the tone of the succession conversation. 

What Mr Odinga confronted this week, the other presidential front-runner candidate William Ruto did too when the Kikuyu leaders allied to him presented demands on which their support hinged. This support is not now, and will not in the medium term, be based on the Hustler narrative.

While scholars of politics who hold that issue-based political mobilisation is the most desirable may cringe at the notion of tribal interests defining the political direction of a country, the more practical among them will view this as an inevitable and welcome process in Kenya’s journey of political self-discovery.

The Kikuyu and the Luo have always had a strong sense of identity, but now the others are cementing theirs. The Maa community have recently hosted Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto and made clear that their support was conditional. The Luhyas must come to this realisation and rediscover the unity they had under the late Masinde Muliro and later Wamalwa Kijana. 

If they had it, they could be expected to field one presidential candidate – who could present a formidable prospect because of the numbers that they command.

Bargaining power

A nationalism wave is sweeping through the Kisii community with the realisation that the dispersed nature of the community belies the fact that it collectively represents close to two millions votes. They are regrouping and reviewing their strategy, seeing hope that Interior Minister Fred Matiang’i represents a unifying factor that could redefine their bargaining power at the national level and in the counties where they are now domiciled. Conversations are going on to crystallise that strategy.

Coastal tribes have, for a while, been restless and have made overt moves to coalesce around a cause, some extreme like contemplating secession. But now we have seen the formation of a party fronted by the outgoing Kilifi governor, Mr Amason Kingi. He and other sympathetic leaders have made it clear that the party is their response to other groups coming together to argue their cases as tribes. 

We have seen the same with tribes from Kenya’s arid and semi-arid areas that have the Upya political movement to push for their interests. This one has coalesced around Treasury Cabinet Secretary Ukur Yatani as its leader.

Deputy President Ruto may be riding an impressive popularity wave across the country, but his core base is the Kalenjin tribe. He demonstrated his loyalty to them by his much publicised and heavily criticised move to select all Cabinet secretaries and top governments on his side of the presidency from “his people”. It is expected that if he becomes president, the Kalenjin community will be well rewarded.

It is an unfortunate reality that in such caucusing as we are seeing, the numerically bigger tribes will be advantaged as the tyranny of numbers will dictate the play. It is why the Kikuyu vote is so critical this time round and all the presidential hopefuls are listening and willing to make significant concessions. But this advantage will not last indefinitely.

The other tribes will soon realise that they need to negotiate among themselves to form bigger tribal groupings with the heft to force victory to their side. This reality is not too far off as they are unlikely to allow the likes of the Mt Kenya Foundation to enjoy the strong advantage that they currently enjoy. 

Ultimately and happily, the acceptance of tribe as the key bargaining chip in our politics now may in the fullness of time de-tribalise our politics.

The writer is a former editor-in-chief of Nation Media Group and is now consulting. [email protected], @tmshindi