Democracy wanes on the back of government failure

The strongholds of these right-wing politicians appear to be areas where citizens are dissatisfied with the performance of their governments in addressing what some consider the “wave of immigrants”.

These developments have led to a general decline of democracy in Europe and America. Very soon, some of these countries will lose the moral authority to support democratic causes in the Global South because of this.

In much of Africa, a close reading of elections also shows that people are dissatisfied with the performance of their governments. This is reflected in data by Afrobarometer research over the years.

In the last 12 years, satisfaction with how democracy works in Africa has declined from about 50 per cent in 2011 to 39 per cent. A significant number of people are also dissatisfied with how elections work.

On average, about 45 per cent of people in Africa are of the view that elections are not effective in holding their leaders to account. Only 14 per cent in Gabon, 16 per cent in Eswatini, 20 per cent in Nigeria and 28 per cent in South Africa feel elections help them to hold their leaders to account. Many countries in West Africa’s “military coup belt” also have low numbers of people who have confidence in elections.

Kenya fairs much better than the Africa average in terms of number of citizens who have confidence in elections. But only 55 per cent of Kenyans, compared to Africa’s average of 45 per cent, have confidence in elections.

Ghana leads the continent in terms of number of citizens who have confidence in elections as tool for holding leaders accountable. Eighty per cent of those in Ghana, 70 per cent in Uganda and 61 per cent in Tanzania say elections work well in enabling voters to remove non-performing leaders from office.

But 61 per cent of citizens in Kenya feel that elections do not ensure that those elected to Parliament represent the views of voters. They feel their leaders are disconnected from them. They are of the view that elected leaders alienate themselves from voters after elections. This is in contrast to countries like Tanzania and Ghana where over 70 per cent feel their leaders represent them well.

Kenyans still prefer elections as a means of choosing leaders, with close to 80 per cent of them perceiving elections as a good means of choosing leaders.

Even more interesting, as many as 80 per cent of Kenyans say they vote without fearing intimidation. They are able to choose who to vote for without feeling pressured by anyone.

And in relation to freeness and fairness of elections, only 54 per cent of Kenyans (below Africa average of 59 per cent) think the elections they last voted in were free and fair. 

Topping the list of countries where people say their last elections were free and fair are Tanzania, Liberia and Zambia. At the bottom of the list, that is countries whose citizens say their last elections were not free and fair, are Gabon, Sudan, Morocco, Guinea, Mali and Zimbabwe.

Slow progress on development explains dissatisfaction

Why are people in Kenya not satisfied with how democracy works? Why do many people have reservations about elections as a means of holding leaders to account?

First, it is about slow progress in improving the well-being of citizens. While per capita income has increased over the years, this has not translated into steady reduction of poverty.

About nine million Kenyans or about 16.1 per cent of the population are living in extreme poverty. The number of those living in poverty is even higher if we adjust the measurements above the $1.9 per day—over 27 per cent are below the poverty line of $2.15.

Unfortunately, from the time of independence, successive governments have campaigned on a platform of eliminating poverty, ignorance and disease, but these remain a challenge.

Secondly, the 2010 constitution was meant to address these issues. It is transformative in form and content but lacks effectiveness and spirit of implementation. 

All candidates, whether at national or county level, have been campaigning on a platform of the 2010 constitution and in particular, the need to address poverty and transform the country. But standards of living have not changed for many people. The gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen. The income disparities continue to be a mark of the Kenyan society.  This challenge continues to fuel class conflicts of the type seen in the days preceding the 2022 elections.

How to improve people’s confidence in government

Public confidence in government and leaders will improve only when the government manages the economy in a manner that will lead to improvement of the wellbeing of a majority of citizens. This will require focused attention to the revival of industries, particularly the manufacturing sector, where many jobs can be created and various products made for the regional markets.

Tied to the above is the need to consistently implement policies aimed at lowering the cost of food. This requires giving attention to agricultural development. But successive national and county governments have approached agriculture, including livestock development, in a very inconsistent and casual manner.

Building a fertiliser factory has been talked about since the late 1960s. Value addition in agriculture has been a campaign talking point and government promise in Kenya for many decades, but little progress has been made. Kenya continues to import wheat, rice and maize when there is plenty of land to irrigate and produce more. 

In trade, Uganda has been Kenya’s largest export market. But the focus of our foreign policies  has not been sensitive to this.

Improving the well-being of Kenyans requires leaders who work on a vision to transform the country in a period of one generation. Unfortunately, the vision of a majority of leaders in Kenya—national and county—is focused on winning an election every five years.

- Prof Kanyinga is based at the Institute for Development Studies, University of Nairobi, [email protected], @karutikk.