Day plans went awry, pushing Raila, Azimio further into uncharted waters

We have all heard about extremely clever strategies that collapse into spectacular shambles upon their first contact with reality but rarely do we, if ever at all, enjoy the privilege of witnessing one unfold before our bemused eyes.

First of all, there are well-known Kenyans of whom punctuality has never been a strong point.  

When such persons not only muster the discipline and stamina to coordinate a plan, however trifling, and then actually make an appearance, bright and early, to a venue far removed from their comfort zone, it must be inferred that something is afoot.

Uhuru Kenyatta managed the historic feat of turning up quite early, to the Gem home of the late Prof George Magoha.

There is no denying that the professor was a much-admired man and a dedicated former Cabinet secretary in Kenyatta’s government who was famously perceived to be incorruptible. 

Profound affection 

It is quite perfectly within the realm of possibility that Kenyatta indeed harboured sufficiently profound affection for his office to be distraught at his passing. Any reasonable observer must grant that, as I hereby do.

On the other hand, a persistent subtext of histrionic political mischief not only overhung Gem like menacing storm clouds, but it also connected ostensibly discrete events into a most revealing sequence of rackets.

Given its antecedent and subsequent moments, the Matiang’i debacle was a decisive event in this scheme. 

Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition had mobilised strident if half-hearted street protests to prosecute an indeterminate litany of vague grievances. 

The agenda varied from venue to venue, and from day to day at such a dizzying pace that the most accomplished chameleon would appear disastrously clumsy by comparison.

The cost of living, electoral justice, defending Uhuru Kenyatta, inviting the government to arrest Odinga, keeping the government in check, not recognising the government, demanding the resignation of the government and insulting the Deputy President are a few of the more discernible propositions pursued in these events.

The point is that it never appeared necessary to be credible or consistent, as long as the crowds were mobilised, charged and sufficiently disenchanted to be strategically useful in haranguing the government. Incoherence was just another irritating detail to manage.

Historically speaking, there has never been anything quite like a good death or funeral in Nyanza to reinvent and reposition the reigning Odinga as a significant political variable at the national level. 

In 1969, Tom Mboya’s death enabled Jaramogi Odinga essentially resurrect politically. In 1990, Robert Ouko’s death offered the Odinga’s the chance to trouble Nyayo sufficiently for the first Handshake to emerge from the shadows of desperate delusion and become the newest innovation in political architectonic calculus. 

Barnstorming insurrection 

Jaramogi Odinga’s own passing set the stage for Raila Odinga to mount a barnstorming insurrection and take over political Nyanza and Odingaist opposition.

Odinga just lost the presidential contest for the fifth successive time. 

As though that is not disheartening enough, Odinga had “made a heap of all his winnings, and, casting it in one turn of pitch, lost everything, and so, has to start again from the beginning”. 

The Handshake, BBI and Azimio, never earnestly explained in the first place, were never fully understood and therefore only provisionally accepted. With the electoral defeat, Odinga’s audacious gamble had exploded in ignominy.

As Azimio decays and ODM erupts in volcanic ferment, Odinga recognises that there are real chances of him dissipating into a marginal political player. 

The funeral, therefore, was a gem of an opportunity for Odinga to stage a titanic confrontation with the state, evoke a potent and visceral politics of grievance, strike a sustainable mobilising chord throughout his constituency, and get the show back on the road.

Best-laid plans 

One poet said that the best-laid plans of men and mice often go awry. 

The Karen outrage failed to deploy and rapidly devolved into an embarrassing distraction. 

Without credibility, there was no “my-life-is-in-danger” narrative to flog at the funeral to anchor outrage against the government. 

State presence at the funeral was reduced to representatives, and the spectacle Kenyatta turned up so early to enjoy never materialised.

Odinga swiftly abandoned the entire sortie and resumed his frantic rummaging for a cause. His fevered speculation has now alighted on prayers for the IEBC. 

It does not help matters that an international consortium of investigative journalists report that the Jose Carmago that so obsessed Azimio may actually be Tram Jorge, which may have been bequeathed to Azimio by the woebegone Jubilee. 

Odinga has attempted to counter the scandal by alluding to “ethical hacking”. 

When Matiang’i was mentioned by a journalist, an agitated Odinga testily responded, “Even if Matiang’i lied, so what”, and decreed that we should, all and one, move on.

Odinga is navigating uncharted waters without a compass. Will he capsize at sea or crash calamitously into unexpected shores?

Mr Ng’eno is an advocate of the High Court.