Can Kenya escape a Raila-Ruto handshake after polls?

Two years ago, I argued in this column that ‘Conciliatory handshake is Africa’s most successful political idea’ (Sunday Nation, May 12, 2018). But not everybody believes so. Among these is Deputy President William Ruto Ruto. Speaking at the burial of President Mwai Kibaki in Othaya on April 30, Mr Ruto made his now famous clarion cry: “As a tribute to President Kibaki, let’s have a peaceful election so that a handshake will not be necessary.”

Obviously, this was a stealth attack on the March 9, 2018 ‘handshake’ between President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga. But, can Kenya escape another ‘handshake moment’ after the 2022 election?

Elections are the riskiest moments in fragile democracies where the tradition of peaceful transitions is not entrenched. Post-election ‘handshakes’ have been courted as effective responses to post-election fragility. As a political idea, the handshake is firmly anchored on the philosophy of conflict resolution. Inspired by Immanuel Kant’s thoughts on ‘perpetual’ or sustainable peace, a handshake epitomises the win-win model of political transaction.

The idea has helped end apartheid (South Africa), civil wars (Sierra Leone, Sudan) or violent elections (Kenya, Zimbabwe) in emerging democracies. Despite its known negative impact on opposition politics, the “handshake” is emerging as Africa’s most indelible contribution to political thought. 

The April 10, 1998 Good Friday Agreement (GFA) between political parties in Northern Ireland on the one side and the British and Irish governments on the other that ended nearly four decades of violence and political conflict in Northern Ireland is a classic case of an effective ‘handshake.’

In Africa, perhaps the most iconic handshake in our modern times was between Nelson Mandela, then as leader of the African National Congress, and the last of South Africa’s apartheid leaders, President Frederick de Klerk in the early 1990s. When he died in 2013, CNN eulogised Mandela as a “man of many handshakes”.

Raila-Moi handshake

In a recent conversation on Ruto’s remarks with Mzee Fred Mungai, a senior elder from Kiambaa, it dawned on me that the ‘handshake’ is a single force that accounts for Kenya’s peace over the past six decades. While a dominant mass party – Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) – is behind Tanzania’s stability, eight ‘handshakes’ account for peace in Kenya.

The first one occurred in the early 1960s, against the backdrop of the Mau Mau liberation struggle. Jomo Kenyatta offered an olive branch to white settlers after Kenya attained internal self-government in 1963, giving them an option to remain in Kenya after independence. As a result, Kenya is largely a multi-racial society. Today, approximately 250,000 British nationals are permanent residents in Kenya, and more than 200,000 Kenyans live in the United Kingdom!

The second handshake occurred in 1964, involving Kenya’s nationalist elites coalesced around Kanu and Kadu. Its aim was to forge a united Kenya.

The third ‘handshake’ came in the wake of Kenya’s return to multi-party democracy in 1991. It was a quiet and short-lived handshake after the 1992 election between Kenya's first Vice-President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and second President Daniel arap Moi. Back then, Jaramogi likened Moi to “a giraffe with a long neck that sees very far”. Clearly, the handshake with Jaramogi was Moi’s strategy to regain full control of Parliament. Although Kanu had garnered 100 seats out of 188, cooperation with Jaramogi gave Moi an additional 31 seats. Together with 12 nominated seats, Kanu secured an unassailable super-majority of 143 in a 200-member Parliament.

The fourth ‘handshake’ was between Odinga’s political heir, Raila, and Moi after the acrimonious 1997 elections. The handshake enabled Moi to govern. Kanu had won a razor-thin 107 seats or 50.95 per cent of the total 210 seats. The ‘handshake’ gave Kanu 21 House seats (10 per cent) from Raila’s NDP to counter the Kibaki-led opposition, which hitherto controlled nearly 49.11 per cent of Parliament.

Most preferred candidate

The fifth handshake came in 2008. It involved opposition leader Raila Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki. It led to the signing of the National Accord and Reconciliation Act (2008) that ended the cataclysmic post-election violence. The handshake has been hailed as Kenya’s reform moment when the country promulgated a new constitution.

The Sixth handshake was between Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. This culminated in the Kalenjin-Kikuyu détente that enabled the duo to form the Jubilee Coalition and win the March 4, 2013 election. With 25.52 per cent and 21.36 per cent respectively, Uhuru’s TNA and Ruto’s URP had a thin parliamentary edge. Their Jubilee Coalition did not need another post-election handshake. Ahead of 2017, they united smaller parties under the Jubilee Party to consolidate a super majority in Parliament. The Jubilee Party retained its majority in the Senate, winning 34 of the 67 seats, and in the National Assembly with 171 of the 341 seats.

Kenya’s seventh and latest handshake between President Kenyatta and Odinga on March 9, 2018 effectively ended the country’s most protracted electioneering period. 

As relations between Kenyatta and his Deputy became increasingly frosty, Uhuru relied on his handshake with Odinga as a strategy to pass bills in Parliament.

With the possible outcomes of the August 9, 2022 polls increasingly uncertain, one cannot credibly rule out the coming eighth ‘handshake’.

According to recent opinion polls, Ruto is the most preferred presidential candidate. Moreover, his strategists are hands on the deck to win majority seats in Senate and National Assembly. The idea is to win the presidential vote and a super majority in Parliament. But if whoever wins fails to garner majority in Parliament, a Ruto-Raila ‘handshake’ will become inevitable – and absolutely necessary.

Prof Kagwanja is Chief Executive at the Africa Policy Institute and Adjunct Scholar at the University of Nairobi and National Defence University.