An expectations nightmare awaits Uhuru in Kisumu

The countdown to the June 1 Madaraka Day celebrations in Kisumu has been dominated by appeals to residents to avoid crowding in light of the cases of the coronavirus variant from India.

I don’t just see that happening. The euphoric mood was already set on Monday when ODM party leader Raila Odinga and the Kisumu governor addressed large gatherings in the town on their way to inspect the celebrations venue in Mamboleo.

It was an irresponsible decision by Mr Odinga who, as a Covid survivor, should surely know better.

But the scenes of the former Prime Minister dramatically dropping his guard also underlined how much the opportunity to host President Uhuru Kenyatta in his political stronghold means to him.

Mr Kenyatta’s visit to the region comes at a time elements within Mr Odinga’s party are beginning to question the President’s commitment to the Handshake – the cooperation agreement the duo entered into following months of tensions related to the disputed outcome of the 2017 presidential election.

Gifts of the Handshake

On Friday, the ODM party leader rallied local elected leaders to a meeting with the President at State House where a number of uncompleted government projects were presented as gifts of the Handshake to the region.

On the Big Day, Mr Odinga will be desperate for a crowd in the stadium to reassure the President that the ground is still as excited about the Handshake as it has been over the past three years.

Development tour

I would be surprised if party operatives aren’t currently combing the slums and the villages to have people get out and welcome Ouru, as the President’s name is popularly pronounced down there.

However, Mr Odinga has a big challenge managing his supporters’ expectations about the Handshake.

While the local leaders have in recent days amplified government projects started by President Kenyatta’s administration and depicted his visit this week as a development tour, they have in the past hyped the cooperation deal as an endorsement ticket for Mr Odinga’s presidential candidature in the 2022 elections.

‘Deep State’

Mr Odinga’s elder brother Oburu Oginga, who serves as an MP in the East African Legislative Assembly, has in the past publicly boasted about the expected backing by their newfound allies within the ‘Deep State’.

To every Onyango, Ochieng and Odhiambo who will be turning up for Madaraka Day celebrations – from whatever distance to the Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium – Tuesday is the day Uhuru finally endorses Baba, as Mr Odinga is fondly known, for president.

Then there is the silent minority, whose wishes the President and Mr Odinga find uncomfortable.

Unexcited about the politics of the day, they would rather hear the duo talk about redress for past injustices than 2022 elections.

Kisumu, so often the epicentre of street protests against perceived electoral rigging, bears the raw scars of the tensions, with several victims of police brutality yet to get justice.  Will the President hear them out?

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