DP war on One Kenya wasteful

We seem to have gone into mass hysteria on speculation that Deputy President William Ruto and ODM Party Leader Raila Odinga could be headed for reunion, leading into yet another alliance for the 2022 elections.The improbable scenario recently played up in all daily newspapers was based largely on DP Ruto’s comments in a series of media interviews putting himself and his arch-foe, Mr Odinga, as the two serious politicians with a national following.The comments — which were actually directed against the so-called “Sacred Alliance” of party leaders Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Moses Wetang’ula (Ford-Kenya) and Gideon Moi (Kanu) — were swiftly picked up by Mr Odinga’s acolytes with tantalising suggestions that the two could work together.That, in my view, is the realm of fantasy. The two might temporarily have found common cause in mutual suspicion of an emerging alliance that threatens to gatecrash their two-horse race. But that by itself hardly provides evidence of yet another cataclysmic movement in Kenyan politics.The only common ground for now is suspicion that the Sacred Alliance is being secretly propped up by President Kenyatta or some powerful mandarins in his inner circle to pull the rug from under their respective feet in the run-up to 2022.Mr Odinga’s famous ‘Handshake’ with the President calmed the post-2017 election tensions, birthed the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) referendum drive and held up promise of an unlikely alliance for his fifth presidential bid.BetrayedHe would, obviously, feel badly betrayed if the promise came to nought and the President and the powerful and wealthy central Kenya establishment instead threw its weight behind his former Nasa allies, who initially opposed BBI and had also let him down during his swearing-in as ‘The People’s President’.The DP already feels betrayed by the President and his men after they reneged on the promise to support his presidential succession bid. He has telegraphed an exit from Jubilee Party to make his 2022 presidential election bid on the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).In the interim, he has filled the vacuum left on Mr Odinga’s dalliance with the President by assuming the role of de facto Opposition leader.Upsets battle plansThe DP’s entire political strategy is based on a mighty showdown with Mr Odinga and, by extension, the President. It is also based on the presumption that the Sacred Alliance/One Kenya grouping is part of the Odinga-Kenyatta pact, which plays into his potent Hustler versus Dynasties campaign narrative.Mr Mudavadi and company presenting themselves as an alternative to Mr Odinga upsets the Ruto battle plans. He has spent a great deal of time and resources crafting an anti-Odinga campaign narrative and does not want to see the fruits of his messaging eaten by a third party.It, therefore, serves the DP’s interests to project himself as the only credible alternative to Mr Odinga by dismissing Mr Mudavadi’s team as no more than a grouping of village politicians who cannot play on the national stage. That translates to projecting both himself and Mr Odinga as the serious contenders at the head of political outfits with national reach and appeal.One could easily say that of the well-established ODM, even with the inescapable fact that it’s built around Mr Odinga’s towering personality and impregnable regional bastion. By contrast, UDA — the DP’s brainchild — is a brand new party that has a long way to go before it’s seen as anything more than just another of the many special purpose political vehicles that emerge and disappear with every election.No doubt, UDA has made a mark within the short period of its existence. But it will only be properly assessed after surmounting a few general election cycles. In that regard, the DP probably needs to spend more time shoring up the credentials of his own party rather than endlessly talking about an outfit he dismisses as useless.The more he talks about the grouping and sends out his social media warriors to create derogatory “Scared Alliance” and “Cerelac Alliance” memes and hashtags, the more he gives Mr Mudavadi’s team the much-needed visibility — and oomph.Ditto the loudmouths in Mr Odinga’s camp, whose mindless histrionics work so much against their party leader.Anyway, if the possibility of a Ruto/Odinga union against a common threat can be publicly broached, that should provide a great lesson for every Kenyan: The political class will use you as cannon fodder in their political fights, but their interests are not your interests. When they cut deals to ‘eat together’, you won’t be invited to the banquet.[email protected]. www.gaitho.co.ke @MachariaGaitho