Hidden daggers: Ruto, Raila and wars within and outside
President William Ruto greets Opposition leader Raila Odinga during a past event.
What you need to know:
- The nation stands on shaky ground as Kenya Kwanza and Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalitions remain divided ahead of crucial parliamentary debate on the National Dialogue Committee report next month.
- Some UDA MPs want Nyoro to dislodge Gachagua as Ruto’s running mate in the next elections.
It is bound to be a tumultuous political period from early on in the new year as President William Ruto and opposition chieftain Raila Odinga continue sparring over a number of flashpoints that could derail adoption and implementation of the National Dialogue Committee report set to be tabled for debate when Parliament reconvenes next month.
Meanwhile, both Ruto’s governing Kenya Kwanza alliance and Raila’s Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition are riven by internal feuds that could force dramatic political realignments as early campaigning starts ahead of the 2027 General Election.
In Kenya Kwanza, a group of MPs from Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance Party recently launched a public push for Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro to dislodge Gachagua as Ruto’s running mate for the 2027 polls, and designated successor.
Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro addresses residents at Kariara village in Nyeri County on August 7. There is talk of powerful forces behind the MP’s bid to unseat DP Gachagua.
The Deputy President’s supporters were shocked by the audacious move, which they felt could not have been launched unless sanctioned from very high-up. In Azimio, Raila, who recently celebrated his 79th birthday, has made it clear that he has no intention of retiring from politics yet, and set for his sixth stab at the presidency in 2027, when he will be 82.
However, his 2013 and 2018 presidential running mate and designated Chief Minister had Azimio won the 2022 election, former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, has vowed that he will not again shelve his own ambitions for Raila and will also be in the race. Kalonzo, the Wiper Party leader, and Raila’s 2022 running mate Martha Karua of Narc Kenya, are also jostling for position within Azimio.
Karua, meanwhile, has teamed up with Former Defence Minister Eugene Wamalwa to reject the National Dialogue report, which has been endorsed by Raila. Things are expected to come to a head when the report comes up for consideration in Parliament against a backdrop of divisions within both Kenya Kwanza and Azimio despite it having the seal of approval from the respective principals, Ruto and Raila.
While the opposition chief rallied his MPs to support the report when it was released towards the end of November last year, he has since expressed disquiet with the same issues that irked Wamalwa, who was a member of the Dialogue Committee, and Karua: Lack of clear recommendations on lowering the cost of living.
It was public protests organised by Raila against the rising cost of living and forced establishment of the National Dialogue Committee. The disruptive protests were called off after Raila met with Ruto and agreed on modalities to deal with various grievances, including the demands for a accounting of the disputed 2022 presidential elections.
But after the National Dialogue co-chaired by Kalonzo for Azimio and National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah, Raila agreed that public discontent over high taxation and the cost of living was a burden to be borne by the Ruto government.
He has since again changed tune, and is signalling that he will embark on a nationwide series of political rallies, which could set the stage for resumption of public demonstrations unless the government took clear actions to reduce the cost of living, such as in revoking the increased taxation on fuel and other items imposed by the Finance Act out of the 2023-2024 Budget.
From left: Former President Uhuru Kenyatta, his then deputy William Ruto and Azimio leader Raila Odinga.
Ruto, meanwhile, has also been on his own series of public rallies across the country where he is playing up Kenya Kwanza achievements, launching projects and pushing a campaign against a Judiciary he accuses, without evidence, of being bribed scuttle his development agenda.
The rival Ruto and Raila rallies will undoubtedly take on the character of early campaigns ahead of the 2027 elections, but more immediately will signal the flashpoints expected to erupt in coming weeks and months. Cost of living remains a thorny issue for a government struggling to stave off economic collapse and debt default; an Achilles Heel that the opposition will be keen to exploit.
The National Dialogue Committee report debate in Parliament will be another. From the onset, there were emerging conflicts over Raila’s insistence that some of the key proposals, establishment of an office of Opposition Leader and entrenchment in the Constitution of the post of Prime Cabinet Secretary are major changes in the governance structure that requite assent through a referendum.
Ruto’s is fiercely opposed to a referendum, dismissing the exercise call as too expensive and also a ploy to revive the aborted Building Bridges Initiative referendum of 2022 championed by Raila and then-President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Beyond Raila’s threats to resume street protests, it is clear that his own house his divided on its approach to the National Dialogue report, with Karua and Wamalwa pulling in different directions. There have also been reports, most prominently pushed by Kenya Kwanza politicians, that Uhuru is the driving force behind a scheme to reject the National Dialogue report and launch a new series of demonstrations.
Kenya Kwanza is also divided, with a substantial grouping allied to Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua openly scornful of Dialogue report despite it having Ruto’s public endorsement.
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) chairman Wafula Chebukati (left) hand s a certificate to William Ruto (centre) and his running mate Rigathi Gachagua (right) after declaring Dr Ruto winner of the presidential election on August 15, 2022.
The Gachagua camp feels the report gave away too much to satisfy Raila’s demands, but left publicly unstated is unease with possible entrenchment in the Constitution of the office of Prime Cabinet Secretary, currently occupied by Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi.
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The report recommends the office be re-designated as that of Prime Minister, which could then rival or even surpass the Office of Deputy President in the pecking order. Ruto, meanwhile, has introduced a new area of contestation with his open attacks on the Judiciary after the government lost the initial rounds in a number of Court cases against some of his pet projects, including the Housing Fund.
Another issue likely to flare up is revival of the State Capture probe which appears to target former President Uhuru Kenyatta and his key associates.
Speaking to The Weekly Review last week, the sponsor of a State Capture Commission Bill, Ichung’wah, insisted that he was acting in his capacity as MP for Kikuyu, rather than as House Majority leader.
It was a Private Member’s Bill already before Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, and not an official Government Bill, he said, denying that an initiative of such major political ramifications required the assent of President Ruto or the Kenya Kwanza leadership.
Establishment of a State Capture Commission to probe alleged corruption and other excesses under the Uhuru government, which Ruto served as Deputy President for two terms, was actually a key plank of the Kenya Kwanza campaign.
But not long after assuming office, both Ruto and Gachagua signaled that they were not interested in pursuing that that potentially divisive route.
But Gachagua and his allies, in particular kept up an onslaught on Uhuru whom the accuse of being the key sponsor of Raila’s continuing resistance campaigns, and have often warned of action targeting alleged misdeeds under his rule and the Kenyatta business empire. Despite Ichung’wah’s protestations, it is unlikely that he would push such a sensitive State Capture Bill without a nod from higher up.
He, however, insists that he is acting purely on his own initiative, denying that he is aiming at Uhuru or just the previous government. He explained that the State Capture Commission would investigate abuse of power by all past governments from independence in 1963 up the present administration of President Ruto, and propose the way forward towards ensuring that such abuses are not repeated in future.
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By his own utterances on various public platforms, including when first announcing the State Capture Commission initiative, it is clear that the Majority Leader has his sights very firmly fixed on Uhuru. Uhuru has become almost an obsession for Gachagua who cannot become undisputed community political kingpin as long as the shadow looms large.
But things get even more complicated for the Deputy President when he faces a rebellion in his own backyard from a group of Mt Kenya MPs who recently floated the name of Ndindi Nyoro was the community spokesman and preferred running mate for Ruto in 2027. Senator Joe Nyutu of Murang’a and Gatanga MP Edward Muriu lead nearly a dozen colleagues in demanding that one of from their own county take the Mt Kenya mantle after having supported presidential candidate from Nyeri (Mwai Kibaki) and Kiambu (Uhuru Kenyatta) in the past.
At a function hosted by Nyoro, the MPs directly criticised Gachagua whom they accused of dictatorial traits, disrespecting other leaders and trying to take credit for the vote Ruto secured in the Mt Kenya region.
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Together with his wife Dorcas, through a company linked to them, they are claiming a Sh1.5 billion parcel of land.
It was an audacious assault on the Deputy President by any standards, especially from within a party where open conflicts are discouraged. The big question is whether the MPs were acting on their own, or were being used by hidden forces to launch trial balloons against Gachagua.
One of Ruto’s political mentors, former President Daniel arap Moi, was adept at employing otherwise inconsequential MPs to light the initial flames ahead of orchestrated assaults leading to removal of his deputies. Vice President Mwai Kibaki ahead of the 1988 elections faced sustained attacks from figures in his Nyeri bastion such as then Mukurweini MP Ngumbu Njururu and many others.
He was dropped after the elections. Kibaki’s successor as VP, Josephat Karanja, suffered a similar fate barely one year into office, felled by a campaign driven by relative non-entities such as then Embakasi MP David Mwenje and the Director of Motor Vehicle Inspections Kuria Kanyingi. It might be instructive that other than another set of Mt Kenya MPs rallying to his side, there has been no public show of support for Gachagua from high up on government or the ruling party.
According to Ichung’wah, however, the MPs propping up Nyoro are just a small grouping who don’t deserve any response that would only give their cause mileage.
He insists that the President, Deputy President, Cabinet Secretaries, MPs and other leaders, have their hands full trying to deliver on an ambitious agenda, and will not be distracted by a few who don’t feel the pulse of the nation where Kenyans are more interested a working economy rather then who occupies what office a few years down the line. “Kenya is bigger than Mt Kenya or a few counties in Mt Kenya,” he says to emphasise that the anti-Gachagua campaign is inconsequential.
On why there has been official backing of the DP or upbraiding of the Nyoro group, Ichung’wah explains that Ruto does not believe in airing everything in public, but in cases of disputes or misbehavior, prefers to private one-on-one meetings to offer guidance and advice.
“Even if you say something in public, he’ll never reprimand you in public, he’ll call you. I’m certain that he may have spoken to one or two people.” Gachagua’s camp see a hidden hand in the Nyoro bid beyond personal ambition.
It is not the first time that Nyoro’s activities have caught the attention of Gachagua’s camp. The DP’s supporters are also askance at Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria, who has organised a youth football tournament encompassing all the entire greater Mt Kenya region, including counties in the Rift Valley dominated by the community.
They are concerned that the CS moving outside his former Gatundu South Constituency and Kiambu County is out to build himself a bigger profile ahead of his own bid for regional leadership.
The DP’s aide, former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, dismisses the notion that Ruto or any powerful grouping could have a secret hand in the Nyoro maneuver. Such a move so far ahead of the 2027 elections would make no sense as the President and his Deputy have to work together through turbulent times.
He also disputes media reports that 15 MPs supported the move launched in Nyoro’s Kiharu’s Constituency, insisting that it was only Senator Nyutu and MP Muriu, both from his Murang’a County, as well as Elijah Kururia from Gatundu North in Kiambu County.
