Key reasons why the cut could be level par, or under par

Professional golf tournaments are played over four rounds, in the case of the Kenya Open from the March 3 to 5. However, it’s only the top 60 players (and any player tying the 60th player) who get to play in the final two rounds.

Further, it is only these top 60 players, and ties, who win any money. Players who miss the CUT go home empty handed.

Predicting the CUT line or score is not an exact science.

Fortunately, we can rely on statistics from the 2018 edition of the Kenya Open, that was the last time the event was played at Muthaiga and we can also rely on the scoring through the first round to give us an indication.

The 2018 CUT line was at one over par, in other words, any player who posted scores of two over par or worse missed the CUT – normally abbreviated as MC.

However, in 2018, the tournament was part of the European Challenge Tour and one could argue that the players at Muthaiga this week are of a higher skill level – and I would agree.

Following that logic, we can expect the CUT at Muthaiga today to be level par or under par — a reflection of the higher caliber of players in the field.

In other words, for players to make the CUT, to get to play into the weekend and stand the chance to win some money and even win the tournament, they will have to post a two-round total of level par or and perhaps more likely, one or two under par.

The 2018 scoring statistics, available on the European Challenge Tour website, paint a picture of a difficult golf course: On the opening nine holes, five holes averaged higher than par for the entire field.

The par-four eighth, 498-yards long played almost half a shot over par, a testament to the difficulty of that dogleg right hole with a rather narrow green.

On the back nine, the par-five 10th proved easy, giving up 37 birdies through that 2018 contest whilst the par-five 18th was equally generous, giving up 33 birdies.

I expect that the field at Muthaiga this weekend will better those averages.

The stretch from the Par-three 13th through the par-three 16th played nearly one stroke above par for the field back then and, surprisingly, the seemingly harmless par-four 17th, only 346 yards off the back tees, also played slightly over par – a classic risk and reward hole.

The 60th player

At the time of going to press, the leaders in the club house were Daniel Gavins (ENG) seven-under, Johannes Veerman (USA) six-under, Dean Burmester (SA) and Wil Besseling (NED) at four-under and another 30 or so players had finished their opening rounds under par.

The 60th player is currently at one-under par and if this picture is replicated through Round Two today, then we can expect the CUT to be under par.
Among the Kenyan players, David Wakhu completed his round seven-over par whilst Justus Madoya is six-over.

Michael Karanga (amateur) and Edwin Mudanyi are four-over through opening their rounds, Taimur Malik (amateur) is three-over. These players will have much to do through their second rounds on Friday.

The 2019 Magical Kenya Open champion Guido Migliozzi (Italy) had a rough opening round, finishing five-over par. He too will have to dig deep to make the CUT.

Charles Gacheru is a golf and sports marketing consultant and Director at IMG Kenya Ltd. [email protected]