Raila Odinga leads William Ruto in Nairobi, Makueni and Mombasa: Tifa poll

Azimio la UmojaRaila Odinga, Deputy President William Ruto

Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga (left) and Deputy President William Ruto.

Photo credit: Jeff Angote & File | Nation Media Group

Senators Johnson Sakaja and Mutula Kilonzo Jnr, and Mvita MP Abdulswamad Nassir are in the lead for the Nairobi, Makueni and Mombasa gubernatorial races, according to the latest Tifa poll.

The poll shows Mr Sakaja, who is vying on a United Democratic Alliance (UDA) ticket is the most preferred aspirant at 23 per cent approval rating. Closely following are Jubilee’s Polycarp Igathe (15 per cent), Richard Ngatia (three per cent), Anne Kananu (one) and Agnes Kagure at four per cent.

Mr Ngatia and Ms Kananu have, however, withdrawn from the race in support of Mr Igathe.

However, a whopping 53 percent of those surveyed are still undecided on who to vote for as Nairobi County boss.

The Raila Odinga-led Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition is the most popular coalition in the county, with 42 per cent rating, according to the Trends and Insights for Africa (Tifa) poll.

It is closely followed by Deputy President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition whose support is at 22 per cent.

At least 36 percent of voters are undecided on which political grouping to support, with 41 percent of respondents supporting Mr Odinga’s presidency compared to Dr Ruto’s 26 per cent. Undecided voters in the presidential category account for 32 percent.

ODM’s Edwin Sifuna is ahead in the Senate race, with 19 per cent compared to UDA’s Margaret Wanjiru who polled at six percent. More than half of the respondents, at 73, percent are undecided on who to support for senator.

Some 649 respondents

In the woman representative seat, ODM’s Esther Passaris enjoys 27.8 percent support against Millicent Omanga’s (UDA) six percent.

Some 649 respondents took part in the Nairobi survey that had a +/-4 per cent margin of error.

In Makueni, Mr Kilonzo of Wiper is leading at 50 percent, while Mr Patrick Musimba is trailing with five percent, Rose Moseo at three percent, and others at 18 percent, while 24 percent of the voters are undecided.

In the Senate seat race, Mr Daniel Maanzo is leading at 21 percent, Prof Kivutha Kibwana is second with 11 percent, Mr Patrick Mbau has four percent, and others with three percent, while 61 percent of the voters are undecided.

Azimio has the highest support in the county at 62 percent, Kenya Kwanza has 13 percent, and 24 percent of the voters are undecided on which group to support.

In the presidential race, Mr Odinga is ahead with 48 percent while Dr Ruto enjoys 18 percent support. Thirteen percent of the respondents do not know who to support.

 However, the Wiper party is the most popular political outfit in Makueni, at 43 percent, followed by UDA at 17 percent, ODM at 10 percent, and others at five percent while 25 percent are undecided.

 Some 900 respondents took part in the Makueni poll conducted in April with a +/- 3.2 percent margin of error.

Dismissed the poll

In Mombasa, Mr Nassir of ODM is leading with 40 percent support, while former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko (Wiper) is second at 28 percent. Mr Hassan Omar (UDA) is at nine percent while Deputy Governor William Kingi (PAA) trails at one percent. Twenty-two percent of those surveyed in the county are unsure of who to support in the governor race.

However, Mr Nassir dismissed the poll, saying he is way ahead.

“I believe we are higher; the base is too low. Let them do a deeper analysis. We are higher than what was quoted,” said Mr Nassir.

 In the senate race, the incumbent, Mr Mohammed Faki (ODM) is at 14 percent, followed by UDA’s Hamisi Mwaguya (seven percent). Wiper’s Abdulsamaam Kassim, Ms Hazel Katana, Hisham Mwidau tie at one percent support, with 76 percent of voters undecided.

Mr Mwaguya, a former close ally of Governor Hassan Joho, who served as Mombasa county secretary between 2013 and 2017, dismissed the poll.

“They were conducted before nominations which are very crucial in determining flagbearers. But in the senatorial race history in Mombasa, the race has always been between me and Mr Faki,” he said.

He said he had begun his campaigns to capture the76 percent of undecided voters.

“That’s a big percentage, which I need to vigorously campaign and win over. Voters must be told the importance of senators because they are pegged on gubernatorial and presidential races. In our internal UDA polls the margin was at 26 percent of undecided voters in the senate seat,” said Mr Mwaguya.

Azimio is leading in the county’s political alliance popularity, at 41 percent, Kenya Kwanza is at 27 percent while 32 percent of the voters are undecided.

However, in the political party popularity, ODM is ahead with 36 percent, UDA has 23 percent, Jubilee and Wiper have two percent each, others have two percent, while 35 percent are undecided.

The incumbent woman representative, ODM’s Asha Hussein Mohamed is leading with eight percent, with Amina Abdalla (Jubilee) with three percent, Fatma Barayan (UDA) with two percent, Hamisa Zaja with one percent, others with two percent, while 78 percent are undecided.

Four hundred respondents participated in the Mombasa poll that had +/- 4 percent margin of error.

The Tifa poll shows Mr Odinga would beat Dr Ruto in Mombasa, Makueni and Nairobi counties.