Raila Odinga ahead of DP William Ruto in Nairobi - Tifa poll

ODM party leader Raila Odinga leads Deputy President William Ruto in Nairobi and Busia counties as the most preferred presidential candidate while the latter leads in Murang’a, a fresh Tifa opinion poll shows.

The survey released Thursday places Mr Odinga ahead in the two counties with a huge lead in Busia County, a traditional stronghold for the opposition leader, with 76 percent popularity while Dr Ruto is at 12 percent.

In Nairobi, Mr Odinga has 41 percent popularity while the DP is at 31 percent. Undecided voters in the capital account for around 24 percent.

“Whilst Raila Odinga is the most popular presidential candidate in Nairobi, the gap between him and DP Ruto is small enough to suggest that the level of contestation in this county will be high,” said Tifa lead researcher Tom Wolf.

On the other hand, Dr Ruto has a wide lead in Murang’a County with a popularity rating of 71 percent while Mr Odinga comes second at 16 percent. Governor Mwangi Wa Iria is third at 1 percent.

Political parties

Mr Odinga’s popularity in Nairobi is greater than that of his party: ODM's popularity stands at 23 percent while UDA follows closely behind at 22 percent. A large percentage of the city's residents (35 percent) are yet to identify with any of the current political parties. 

In Busia, the popularity of ODM stands at 46 percent while that of Azimio la Umoja -- linked to Mr Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta -- stands at 19 percent. UDA trails at 7 percent. 

“ODM as a party and its associated Azimio la Umoja as a coalition constitute the most popular political formation by far, equal to about two-thirds of all respondents at 65 percent,” said Mr Wolf.

The DP turns the tables on his rival in Murang’a County where the popularity of UDA stands at 69 percent. The ruling Jubilee party comes second at 11 percent while ODM comes third at 6 percent. 12 percent of voters were undecided, the survey shows.

“Whether Raila Odinga can close any/much of the gap between him and Dr Ruto in the remaining five months will be a major challenge, given the vote-rich Mt Kenya region of which Murang’a is part, is leaning towards the DP,” Mr Wolf said.

The survey was conducted between March 2 and 7, 2022 and saw 1,690 respondents interviewed. It has an average margin of error of +/-4.17 percent.

Read the full TIFA report here TIFA

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