OKA in a dilemma as Raila Odinga, William Ruto advance

The importance of One Kenya Alliance (OKA) leaders in next year’s presidential elections is evident in efforts by Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga to woo them.

Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga, the perceived frontrunners in the State House race, have lately stepped up campaigns to win the backing of OKA, whose leaders, however, insist their alliance will be the third force in the August elections.

OKA leaders Mr Musalia Mudavadi, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, Mr Gideon Moi and Mr Moses Wetangula have reached out to the Mt Kenya Unity Forum that comprises Ms Martha Karua, Mr William Kabogo, Mr Moses Kuria, Mr Mwangi Kiunjuri and Mr Justin Muturi as part of efforts to build this alliance.

But OKA is still hamstrung by the apparent divided loyalties by its leaders.

Mr Moi’s Kanu is in a post-election coalition agreement with President Kenyatta’s Jubilee. The Baringo Senator was the only OKA leader who attended Mr Odinga’s Azimio La Umoja Movement launch on December 10. Earlier Mr Odinga had attended Mr Moi’s endorsement by Kanu delegates as the Independence party’s presidential aspirant.

Mr Musyoka’s Wiper party also has a cooperation agreement with Jubilee. And the former vice president also invited Mr Odinga to a Wiper party meeting that tasked him (Mr Musyoka) to vie for the presidency.

Jubilee and ODM have been negotiating a pre-election coalition agreement that looks set to be sealed after formation of a coalition party thought to be Azimio La Umoja.

OKA leaders

And the changes to electoral laws to require a coalition party- which President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga are forging- deposits a pre-election coalition agreement by February will pile more pressure on OKA leaders.

Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetangula seem to be the only ones yet to establish links with either Jubilee or ODM.

That would explain why Dr Ruto recently while touring western region invited the two leaders to form an alliance with his United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Perhaps keen to downplay suggestions their relations were beyond repair, Mr Odinga on December 18 turned up at the burial of Mr Mudavadi’s step mother, Mama Rosebella.

“Mudavadi and I go back a long way. We have been friends since we were in opposition,” said the former prime minister, retracing their dalliance up to their last political alliance in 2017 under the National Super Alliance (Nasa).  “I know our paths will cross again going forward,” Mr Odinga said, a line he has also insisted with regard to Mr Musyoka.

But the following day, when OKA leaders teamed up with Mr Kabogo in Kiambu, Mr Mudavadi insisted they would not be blackmailed to back another presidential candidate.

“Kenyans should not be sold fear or be forced to vote for any particular candidate,” Mr Mudavadi told a rally in Thika on December 19.

“We are leaving no one behind. As One Kenya Alliance and Mt Kenya Unity Forum, we want an election that is verifiable, free and fair,” added the former deputy prime minister.

Presidential vote

Mr Mudavadi, Mr Kalonzo and Mr Wetangula have each backed Mr Odinga’s presidential bid twice and it’s unclear whether they would agree to a third time. 

In 2007, Mr Mudavadi backed Mr Odinga who lost to President Kibaki in a disputed presidential vote. 

Mr Musyoka who had vied in that year’s presidential election on an ODM-Kenya ticket would later be named vice president by President Kibaki, joining Mr Wetangula who was already in Cabinet.

In 2013, Mr Musyoka and Mr Wetangula supported Mr Odinga in an election that Mr Mudavadi also ran for the presidency. They lost to Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Ruto.

In 2017, Mr Mudavadi rejoined Mr Odinga and together with Mr Musyoka and Mr Wetangula formed Nasa but they again lost to President Kenyattta.

President Kenyatta reached out to Mr Odinga, his main challenger in the 2017 presidential election, in 2018, and has since then, appeared to favour him as his preferred successor. 

The president has held numerous meetings with the opposition leaders reportedly to convince them to form a broad coalition but they have been adamant to back Mr Odinga.

With eight months to the elections, political analysts argue that OKA leaders are using delaying tactics to up their stakes in an inevitable reunion with Mr Odinga.

They suggest should OKA however rebuff his overtures, and present a joint presidential candidate, Mr Odinga will be the biggest casualty.

This given Western and Ukambani, which have voted overwhelmingly for the ODM leader in 2013 and 2017, might not rally behind him this time around.

Presidential campaign

ANC deputy party leader Ayub Savula insisted Mr Mudavadi is not stepping down for anyone.

“We have told Musalia that he should not pull out of the race. We are going up to the ballot,” said Mr Savula, the Lugari MP.

Mr Musyoka has also dismissed suggestions they are nonstarters, saying they are capable of mounting a serious presidential campaign to challenge the DP and Mr Odinga.

“People have been saying it is a two horse race but ours is a marathon. Any one of us can be president and we promise to deliver a new dawn for Kenya if we are elected next year,” he told a rally in Taita Taveta recently.

Kanu Secretary General Nick Salat however underscored OKA is open to other like-minded leaders.

“OKA has said it will open its door to reach out to others. Therefore, it is not being closed with the current members alone. Like-minded leaders, for whom Raila is a part of through the handshake, are welcome. We will continue talking so as to work together,” Mr Salat said.

According to Prof Egara Kabaji of Masinde Muliro University, the DP is the beneficiary of the delays by the five leaders to name their captain.

“With those leaders coalescing around the president having not settled on who to lead them, Ruto has a head-start. He is currently campaigning with less opposition but he faces the hurdle of the strained relationship with his boss,” Prof Kabaji argues.

Fence sitters

Political analyst Javas Bigambo warns time is running out for Mr Odinga and his former Nasa colleagues.

“Some of them are fence sitters hoping that fate will make them comprise candidates when the chips fall,” Mr Bigambo suggests.

“Some candidates will have to reconcile their ambitions with reality, shelve their ambitions and support the credible candidates with real chances of winning.”

Prof Ken Oluoch, who heads the Political Science department at Moi University, observes realignments will unfold in coming days.

“Politics is driven by interests and as such personal ambitions inevitably become part of it. These will complicate the crafting of a winning team in the State House race. However, the lead candidates and their handlers are pretty much aware of this. As such, we will be witnessing alignments and realignments in the coming months with each team attempting to increase their chances of making it to the House on the hill,” Prof Oluoch explains.

For ODM chairman John Mbadi, it is still too early to cement an alliance likely to form the next government.

“Serious alliances are formed around three months to the General Election. And in most cases, they are the ones which form the government not those formed way earlier,” Mr Mbadi suggests.

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