Nation poll: Raila leads DP Ruto by 8 percentage points

Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga (left) and his UDA counterpart William Ruto.

Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate Raila Odinga (left) and his UDA counterpart William Ruto.

Photo credit: Simon Maina | AFP

Azimio Coalition party presidential candidate Raila Odinga is the most popular presidential candidate at 49 percent, followed by Kenya Kwanza’s William Ruto whose rating stand at 41 percent, according to the latest poll commissioned by Nation Media Group.

The poll, conducted by Infotrak between July 30 and August 1, places Roots Party candidate George Wajackoyah at position three with 2 percent while David Waihiga of Agano Party has 0.2 percent.

Photo credit: Nation Media Group

At least 7 percent of the respondents are yet to make a decision on their preferred candidate according to the poll, a figure which could flip the outcome and guarantee Mr Odinga a first round win in next week’s election.

“The poll has a sample size of 2,400 respondents and a margin of error of +/- 2 percent and 95 percent degree of confidence,” the report reads in part.

The poll whose respondents were interviewed through telephone covered 47 counties and 290 constituencies of Kenya. 

“To ensure the survey findings were representative of Kenya voters, 18+ years population, the distribution of the survey sample across the 47 counties and 290 constituencies was proportionately allocated.”

The latest poll shows an improvement by Mr Odinga from a tie with Dr Ruto at 42 percent in May. Mr Odinga has added 7 percent to have 49 percent while Dr Ruto’s rating dropped by 1 percent to stand at 41 percent.

Undecided voters

Mr Odinga seems to be the beneficiary of the 10 percent undecided voters in May.

Out of the nine regions namely; Nyanza, Lower Eastern, Coast, Northern, Western, Nairobi, South Rift, Mt Kenya and North Rift, the Azimio flag bearer beats Dr Ruto in six regions.

Photo credit: Nation Media Group

In Nyanza, Mr Odinga’s rating stands at 81 percent against Dr Ruto’s 12 percent while Mr Wajackoyah polled 3 percent and Mr Waihiga 0.3 percent.

In Lower Eastern, the Azimio candidate has 70 percent against the DP’s 21 percent and Mr Wajackoyah’s 1 percent while at the Coast Mr Odinga leads with 62 percent against the DP who polled 27 percent with Mr Wajackoyah getting 5 percent.

Mr Odinga also tops in Northern Kenya where he polled 62 percent against Dr Ruto’s 25 percent while in Western he has 60 percent against DP’s 28 percent and Wajackoyah’s 2 percent.

In Naiorbi, the Azimio candidate boasts of 50 percent against 41 and 2 percent of the DP and Mr Wajackoyah respectively.

Dr Ruto, however, leads the pack in South Rift, Mt Kenya and North Rift regions where he polled 66, 63 and 67 percent respectively against Mr Odinga’s 28, 25 and 25 percent.

Mr Wajackoyah has 3, 2 and 3 percent in South Rift, Mt Kenya and North Rift respectively.