Litmus test for President Ruto, Raila Odinga in party elections
President William Ruto (left) and opposition leader Raila Odinga in Kisozi, Uganda, on February 26, 2024.
What you need to know:
- In Ruto's UDA regional leaders are jostling for slots at the national level.
- Mr Odinga’s planned exit has seen various leaders seeking to replace him.
President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga are facing a litmus test ahead of their parties’ elections set to begin this month.
The President’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Mr Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) are set to hold elections at a time when there are internal leadership wrangles.
While in UDA there are silent fights as regional leaders claim various slots at the national level, Mr Odinga’s planned exit if he wins the Africa Union Commission chairperson seat has already seen various leaders campaign to replace him as party leader.
Although ODM has had its fair share of in fights as leaders jostle for positions in the past, UDA will be holding elections for the first time since the current leadership was hand-picked.
UDA announced staggered dates — April 26 to August 24 — for its grassroots elections yesterday after a National Steering Committee (NSC) meeting chaired by President Ruto.
Mr Odinga is expected to chair his party’s Central Management Committee meeting on Wednesday to give a way forward.
UDA chairperson Cecily Mbarire on Tuesday told journalists after the NSC meeting at the party’s headquarters in Nairobi that the polls shall be “conducted electronically and undertaken in four phases”.
She said that phase one of the elections shall take place on April 26 in seven counties, phase two will be held on June 22 in 13 counties, while the third and fourth phases will be on August 10 and August 24 in 15 and 12 counties, respectively.
Phase one elections will be conducted in Nairobi, Narok, West-Pokot, Busia, Homa Bay, Isiolo and Garissa.
Mombasa, Uasin Gishu, Nyandarua, Tharaka-Nithi, Machakos, Kisii, Bungoma, Siaya, Taita-Taveta, Wajir, Tana River, Kwale and Marsabit will go to the polls in phase two will.
Phase three of the elections will be conducted in Kiambu, Embu, Kericho, Meru, Migori, Kakamega, Nyamira, Kitui, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Samburu, Kajiado, Mandera, Kilifi, Murang’a and Lamu.
In the last phase, elections will be held in Nakuru, Bomet, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Nandi, Baringo, Turkana, Laikipia, Trans Nzoia, Kisumu, Vihiga and Makueni counties.
“Upon completion of the grassroots elections in all the counties, UDA will conduct county and national election by December,” Ms Mbarire announced.
She also announced the appointment of Kenya Revenue Authority Chairperson Anthony Mwaura as the chair of the party’s National Elections Board (NEB), his Kenya Power counterpart Joy Mdivo as the head of the Electoral Dispute Resolution Committee (EDRC) and Dr Adrian Kamotho who chairs the Transport Licensing Appeals Board as her deputy.
In ODM, Mr Odinga had announced that the party elections would begin from the grassroots this month, all the way to the county level and later at the national stage. Wednesday's meeting is expected to discuss the modalities.
“We dedicated the entire March to conduct membership drives and at the beginning of April, immediately after Ramadhan, we shall conduct party elections,” Mr Odinga told Wajir delegates early last month.
The elections, he noted, would begin from the polling station level all the way to the national level.
On Tuesday, ODM deputy party leader Wycliffe Oparanya said Wednesday’s meeting would discuss the impending party polls among other pertinent issues.
“Yes, the meeting is on tomorrow (today) and we shall discuss the modalities of the elections in the best interest of our members,” he said.
The scheming for the positions in the two parties is causing anxiety, with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s lieutenants, mainly from Mt Kenya, cautioning against any attempts to have three deputy party leaders in UDA.
Article 24.3 of the UDA constitution provides for three deputy party leaders to be in charge of policy and strategy.
However, Mr Gachagua’s allies feel that by virtue of being the DP, he automatically becomes the deputy party leader, and having two extra deputies would erode his influence.
UDA Secretary-General Cleophas Malala on Tuesday downplayed the issue, saying that members will be free to make any amendments to the constitution ahead of the national elections.
“A technical team shall be set up to look into our constitution and prepare proposals for any amendments so that we have free and fair elections,” he said.
Last year, Mr Gachagua’s allies also laid claim on the secretary-general’s post.
Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale had also stirred controversy in UDA after warning Mr Gachagua to prepare for a western region takeover of State House at the end of President Ruto’s term in 2032.
Dr Khalwale warned that nobody at both the national and county levels will play cheap politics with the people of Western Kenya in the countdown to the 2032 elections. He also accused the DP of “planting some leaders” within UDA to destabilise the region.
The scheming and counter-scheming for various posts could also play out at the grassroots as top leaders plan to prop up their loyalists ahead of the December national polls.
Mr Odinga is also having to deal with factions that have emerged in the 19-year-old ODM party that are scheming to take over the party’s leadership.
In today’s meeting he will lead the party honchos in ironing out underlying issues. The Nation has established that the meeting will unveil a roadmap to party elections, address the succession question and Mr Odinga’s quest for the AUC post.
Fearing a fallout, Mr Odinga on Sunday hinted at the possibility of using consensus to pick the party’s top leadership if he leaves for the AUC post.
“I am seeking the AUC position but I’m still around. If Baba will be away, we shall sit as ODM members and agree because the party needs (Hassan) Joho, Oparanya and all members of this party to remain strong,” Mr Odinga said during a visit to the Coast region.
He warned against dividing the party along regional lines.
“Let’s not divide this party along regional lines of Western, Nyanza, Nairobi or Coast, no, let us all be members of ODM. If ODM wants to do elections, they will be conducted as a united ODM because if we divide the party along regional lines, we shall break the party,” he said.
Mr Odinga is expected to wade into the labyrinthine politics of ODM elections and particularly his succession in today’s meeting.
But it might not be what the party membership appears to have been gearing for since current feud in the Orange party might only lead to “harmonization of the elections” to avoid a serious contest that could further tear the party apart.
“Fearing a blood bath and complete demolition of some faithful members who have shown interest in positions, the party is toying with having a managed and negotiated process rather than a full-blown contest,” an impeccable source within the party told the Nation.
Two distinct camps have emerged in the party, led by Mr Odinga’s deputies — Mr Joho and Mr Oparanya — even though other leaders’ names have also emerged in the succession quest, including Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna, Director of Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi, Chairperson John Mbadi and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.
Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga is also expected to join the bid for ODM top leadership, eyeing the position of deputy party leader, which would fall vacant should either Mr Joho or Mr Oparanya be elevated.
The camps are said to be secretly preparing their lists of officials to take over leadership at the grassroots should the elections be called, a move that could cause serious falling out.
Kisumu Woman Rep Ruth Odinga has warned that loyalty, consistency as well as party membership must be considered for anyone to get any position.
“We must ask the big question of what are you bringing on the table? Western already has several parties struggling for the control of the region and threatening our existence while at the Coast, we failed to meet our target in the last election; we must be alive to these factors and have a leader who will be able to improve this party and not one who will let it fail,” she said.
She emphasised the need to consider Nyanza region in the Raila succession, stating that the region “cannot be so loyal and be swept aside.”
On Tuesday, UDA announced other members of the seven-member NEB to run the polls. Mr Mwaura will be deputised by Veronica Kiberenge. Other members are Lydia Munika, Jimmy Kaingi, Mary Mutinga, Halake Dida and Linda Kiome.
“Cognisant of the likelihood of electoral dispute, the NSC has also constituted the Electoral Disputes Resolutions Committee (EDRC) AND Internal Dispute Resolution Committee (IDRC) to handle matters of the election disputes,” Ms Mbarire said.
EDRC has Ms Mdivo, Dr Kamotho, Hellen Makone, Yvonne Cherop Kae, Dr Duncan Ojwang, Dr Kaberia Isaac, Barbra Japan, Anjichi Joseph and Ziporah Karimi Muiruri are members.
IDRC will be chaired by Narok Woman Rep Rebecca Tonkei and includes Hassan Omar, Dr Joshua On’gera, Leah Manyarkiy, Samuel Kariuki, Bishop Robert Theuri and Ronald Shako.
